Cognizant Classic Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds Feb 29 – Mar 3

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Cognizant Classic teeing off from Champion Course in Palm Beach Garden, Florida. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Cognizant Classic starting February 29th!

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Cognizant Classic	Cognizant Classic Betting Notes
When:	February 29 – March 3
Where:	Champion Course in Palm Beach Garden, Florida
Defending Champ:	Chris Kirk
Current Favorite:	Rory McIlroy (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Cognizant Classic Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview

A new name, but the same great tournament, as The (now-renamed) Honda Classic slots in its annual spot on the calendar as the start of the Florida Swing with the Tour moving from the West Coast to the East.

This tournament doesn’t normally boast a strong field, but this year is a little deeper than years past, even though each of the next two weeks are Signature Events. Rory McIlroy, a past winner, though he hasn’t teed it up here since 2018, leads the way as the betting favorite, along with 18 of the other Top-50 players in the world.

The course is tough. Only three of the last 11 winners here have finished better than -10. Wayward shots are penalized here more than most tracks as water is realistically in play on 15 of 18 holes.

The famed ‘Bear Trap’ is one of the toughest stretches of holes on Tour as one poor shot quickly brings double into play.

That stretch consists of the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th, all with water ready to gobble up errant shots. Since the beginning of the tournament 17 years ago, that three-hole stretch has averaged over par in every single edition.

The course is normally a par-70, but this year it will play to a par-71 as the par-4 10th hole has been converted to a par-5 which may slightly help the overall scoring in relation to par.

Additionally, the putting surfaces are larger than average and feature Bermuda grass that can be very slick this time of year.

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While having a hot putter always helps, and it may be the difference if your Tee-to-Green play is good, this is a ball-strikers paradise.

Each of the last six years, the winner has ranked no worse than 5th in that department for the week including ranking #1 four straight years from 2018-2021.

In fact, if you look at the Top-10 SG T2G each year, it is nearly a mirror image of the actual Top-10. So, as you normally should, pay attention to those that are in good ball-striking form with an extra emphasis on SG Approach.

Wind is always a factor at PGA National and this year is no different as winds are expected to be 10-15 mph throughout the week with the highest winds forecasted on Friday in the 15-20 mph range and gusts pushing 25.

Depending on the timing of the wind, that could lead to a tee time wave advantage between Thursday and Friday, so pay attention to that as the week goes on.

Rain doesn’t look to be an issue until Sunday with Thunderstorms possible in the AM. Temperatures will be steady in the upper 70s to 80 degrees all week.

Cognizant Classic Outright Winner: Keith Mitchell +4000 (BetMGM)

From Nick Borrman:

I normally don’t like to bet past champions as their true odds are always reflected lower, but I like Mitchell this week for a couple of reasons.

First, he is playing well currently with a Top-10 at The American Express and back-to-back Top-20s at the WM Phoenix Open and last week’s Mexico Open where his ball-striking was very good.

He hits the ball a long way which always helps but add in his approach play and Mitchell ranks #14 in this field in SG T2G (tee to green) over the last six months, and #2 over the last three months behind only Rory McIlroy.

Mitchell generally puts his best on Bermuda grass greens and especially here where he has gained strokes putting in all five years he has played year including the previously mentioned win in 2019 along with a Top-10 in his last start here in 2022.

If he can combine his hot ball-striking with his comfortability on these greens, that obviously would spell trouble for the rest of the field.

Cognizant Classic Top-20 Finish: Matthieu Pavon +210 (Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel or PointsBet)

You can get the FedexCup leader at better than two-to-one this week and it just seems like a must-bet.

Pavon has been scorching hot winning his first PGA Tour event at the Farmers Insurance Open last month in his first year as a full-time member.

That was on the heels of his first win on the DP World Tour in October where he has been a member for the last seven years. So, while it took him a while to get his first win, he followed that up with win #2 very quickly and proves to me that he can close.

Since the Alfred Dunhill Links Championships in October, Pavon has played in 11 events and has finished inside the Top-15 eight times (!) including those two wins.

During that time, Pavon ranks a respectable 18th in SG Tee-to-Green and 2nd in SG Putting behind only Aaron Baddeley.

While Pavon hasn’t played PGA National Resort before, that didn’t stop him from winning at Torrey Pines. I’ll just ride the hottest hand in this field.

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