Dell Match Play Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds March 22-26

Dell Match Play Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Dell Match Play teeing off from Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding Dell Match Play this week!

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Dell Match Play	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	March 22-26, 2023
Where:	Austin Country Club in Austin, TX
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+800 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, Peacock & NBC

Dell Match Play Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.28 (+1100)
Scottie Scheffler +2.89 (+800)
Rory McIlroy +2.49 (+1200)
Patrick Cantlay +2.32 (+2000)
Tony Finau +2.26 (+5000)
Jason Day +2.23 (+3300)
Max Homa +2.11 (+2200)
Xander Schauffele +2.07 (+2500)
Tyrrell Hatton +2.01 (+2500)
Viktor Hovland +1.95 (+2500)

Dell Match Play Course and Field – Austin Country Club (Austin, Texas)

From Nick Borrman:

Golf’s edition of March Madness is here as the TOUR’s only match play event comes to a bittersweet end this week as the Dell Match Play is not on the calendar for 2024.

Perhaps it will return in future years, but as it stands now, this could be the last edition of the unique tournament.

Let’s talk format first. Players are grouped in 16 pods of four and play three round-robin matches against one another to decide the best of the group.

If two or more are tied, a sudden-death playoff will take place to decide who will advance to the knockout rounds. The 16 group winners will then play a true knockout style, single-elimination tournament.

The eventual winner will play seven rounds this week, so the tournament begins on Wednesday with round-robin play scheduled each of the first three days.

From there, it’s all systems go as both the round of 16 and quarterfinals will be played on Saturday followed by the semifinals and finals on Sunday. That’s a lot of golf to stay fresh for, but hey, somebody has to win.

The top 64 qualified players in the world make up this week’s field with defending champion Scottie Scheffler as the overall #1 seed.

He came just short in 2021 finishing runner-up before finishing the job in 2022. That will give him plenty of confidence heading into this event in his home state of Texas.

Other match play stalwarts include Kevin Kisner, who won in 2019 and was the runner-up twice more in 2018 and last year to Scheffler. Other past champions include Jason Day (two-time winner), Rory McIlroy and Billy Horschel.

Austin Country Club is another Pete Dye design, this time with plenty of rolling hills and firm and fast fairways and greens. The course plays to a par 71 (72 for amateurs) and measures about 7,100 yards.

However, the uniqueness of this event is more about scouting potential opponents than it is about the course.

Remember, the players aren’t competing against the field this week, rather, only against one other player at a time. A bad day can still get a win if your opponent has a worse day.

Similarly, it’s not worth scouting the weather much this week either as both players are playing in the exact same conditions. That being said, winds do look breezy for most of the week for what it’s worth.

Dell Match Play Predictions

Picking the Outright winner is always the most exciting and maddening way to go, but you can bet on individual matches every day and it’s worth looking at group winners as well.

Do not expect all the top seeds to advance as only 33% of the top seeds have advanced past the group stage in the tournament’s history.

Like the true March Madness of college hoops, make sure to look at the draw and potential paths for the players when picking Outright winners this week. I like to focus on one guy in each quadrant.

You might get to the semifinals with all four Outrights still in play and guaranteed to cash. You never know!

Outright Winner

Scottie Scheffler +800

Runner-up in 2021 and winner last year. Add that to two other designated wins this season, six wins over the last 13 months, six Top-10s in his last eight starts with the other two finishing T11 and T12.

He’s also #1 SG Tee to Green over the last three, six and 12 months. There is a reason he is the betting favorite and while there is nothing sexy about his odds this week, they don’t have to be sexy to cash.

Looking at Scheffler’s group, the only guy that could give him a little trouble is Tom Kim, but ultimately Scheffler has the experience edge.

From there, if Fleetwood advances out of Group 16, it will be interesting to see how that match plays out as Fleetwood was the only guy to beat Scheffler last year (Scheffler went 2-1 in the group stage and needed to beat Fitzpatrick in a playoff to advance).

After that, it’s most likely one of Collin Morikawa, Jason Day or Viktor Hovland as the most likely candidates to face with a birth in the final four on the line. Overall, there is just not much that worries me out of his entire quadrant.

To Win Group

Max Homa Win Group 5 +170

Homa went 1-2 and then 2-1 in his first two Match Play tournaments but there is no arguing he is at his best now.

World #5 has two wins this season and ranks #3 in Total SG over the last three months behind only Scheffler and Rahm.

When it comes to Group betting, it’s just as important to identify guys who are unlikely to win their group and I’ve circled the rest of Group 5 as very unlikely, so call this a fade of Matsuyama, Kisner and Suh as much as it is a play on Homa.

I already mentioned it earlier, but there is no doubt you will hear plenty about Kisner’s record here and rightfully so.

Sometimes when everyone zigs, you must zag. Sure, Kisner has proven he can beat anybody one-on-one, but there is nothing about his current form that makes me want to bet that. Kisner ranks dead last in Total SG in this field over the last three, six and 12 months.

Favorite to Fade

Collin Morikawa

Full disclosure. I seem to bet on Morikawa when he misses the cut and fade him when he finishes in the Top-10, but in this format, I think the head games are going to make things even tougher for him. I mean, who is going to concede a putt to this guy?

His Tee to Green game is as sharp as anyone in the field, everyone knows that, so the way to beat him is to let him putt. And putt. And putt…

Morikawa ranks as the 5th worst putter in this field over the last 12 months losing -0.12 SG strokes per round. While he finished T13 at THE PLAYERS and T6 at The Genesis, he also missed the cut in the API and WM Phoenix Open.

Over the course of four days, ball-striking will generally outweigh a hot putter. But over the course of 18-holes, a hot putter is all you need, and I just don’t see Morikawa making that happen.

His group is also very tough as Jason Day is playing lights out while Adam Svensson is already a winner this year and is coming off a very good THE PLAYERS tournament.

Heck, even Victor Perez is in good form and is coming off a win at the Abu Dhabi Championship back in January.

Maybe Collin makes it out of his group, but I’m not betting it. Even if he does, being in the same quadrant as Scottie Scheffler spells trouble.

See you next week for the Valero Texas Open!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Dell Match Play? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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