Farmers Insurance Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds January 24-27

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Farmers Insurance Open teeing off from Torrey Pines Golf Club near San Diego, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Farmers Insurance Open starting January 24th!

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Farmers Insurance Open	Farmers Insurance Open Betting Notes
When:	January 24-27
Where:	Torrey Pines Golf Club near San Diego, CA
Defending Champ:	Max Homa
Current Favorite:	Xander Schauffele (+1000 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Farmers Insurance Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

First things first, for the third straight year, the Farmers is scheduled to tee off on Wednesday and finish on Saturday as to not compete with NFL Championship Sunday, so make sure to get your bets in early this week.

Once again, the players are facing the task of playing multiple courses for this tournament, though this week is just two, the North and the South at the famed Torrey Pines. Because of that, the event will revert to a 36-hole cut with the final two rounds both being played on the South.

Both courses are stock par 72s, but the North is much easier and imperative players take advantage of if they want to lift the trophy at the end of the week. Just how much easier is it? Well, over the last five editions of this tournament, the scoring has averaged between 2.1 to 4.2 strokes easier. That is significant.

Considering the South Course is where 54 holes of this event will be played, we will focus our attention there. It is the track that most people know and the one that has hosted the US Open, twice, including Tiger Woods’ famed win over Rocco Mediate on a broken leg.

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The thing to know about the South Course is simple. It is LONG. At over 7,700 yards, it is the longest course the players will play all season. To put it simply, if length was ever an important factor, this is the week for it.

However, missing the fairway is a significant penalty as the rough is 4 inches long. There is quite a bit of rain preceding this tournament which will only make the course play longer, though it could help with long approach shots holding the greens a little better.

Regardless, do not expect a birdie-fest like we saw last week as the winning score each of the last four years has fallen between -13 and -15.

The field is rather shallow with Schauffele, Cantlay, Morikawa and Homa leading the way, while notably, the Top-4 players in the world are not in the field (granted Rahm is ineligible).

After that, there is solid value on some very capable players including the young Ludvig Aberg who’s Driving skillset should not be ignored this week. Next week is a Signature Event so many have decided to take the week off.

As we saw last week, this is Southern California where you can expect the weather to be very Southern-California-like. Sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s with no wind to trouble the players.

Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner: Sahith Theegala +3500 (FanDuel, DraftKings or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

Max Homa is often talked about as the guy to bet when the Tour is playing in California, but Theegala shouldn’t be overlooked out West either.

He won the Fortinet Championship back in September and has played well here each of the last two years finishing T25 in 2022 and T4 last year.

For an odd twist of fate, last year’s winner, Max Homa, also won the preceding Fortinet Championship. Maybe that’s a sign for Theegala?

If you don’t believe in signs, then how about some good old-fashioned data? Despite a MC at the Sony Open, Theegala finished Runner-up at The Sentry, part of a run of five Top-20 finishes in his last eight starts. Theegala has also been strong with his ball-striking, ranking 6th in the field in SG T2G over the last six months.

Finally, no one is going to survive three days around the South Course without having to do a little bit of scrambling and nobody has been better in this field than Theegala who ranks 1st in SG Around the Green over the last six months.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-20 Finish: Keegan Bradley +150 (Bet365 or BetMGM)

Bradley took the week off last week after losing in the playoff at the Sony Open which was his fourth Top-20 in his last five starts. He also loves playing in this tournament as he hasn’t missed a start here dating back to 2011.

Though he does have two MCs during that span (both of those came on horrible putting weeks as his tee-to-green numbers have been positive every year), he has seven Top-25 finishes in his 12 starts including three Top-5 finishes in just the last six years.

Distance is certainly a big factor this week and Keegan has plenty of it as he has averaged more than 10 yards on the field over his last ten starts. He has also gained strokes on approach in every start during that span.

Another stat likely to matter this week is approach over 200 yards where Keegan ranked 15th on Tour in proximity last season, while putting is obviously important any week, and Bradley can get as hot as anyone ranking 20th SG Putting last year.

See you next week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!

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