Farmers Insurance Open Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds January 25-28
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Farmers Insurance Open teeing off from San Diego, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, head-to-head matchups and other betting aspects surrounding the Farmers Insurance Open teeing off January 25th!
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| Farmers Insurance Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 25-28, 2023 |
| Where: | Torrey Pines South Course and others |
| Defending Champ: | Luke List |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+450 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel & CBS |
Farmers Insurance Open Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.07 (+450)
Tony Finau +2.69 (+1400)
Xander Schauffele +2.27 (+1400)
Sungjae Im +1.96 (+2200)
Will Zalatoris +1.85 (+1800)
Taylor Montgomery +1.77 (+3000)
Max Homa +1.69 (+2000)
Collin Morikawa +1.67 (+1600)
Justin Thomas +1.56 (+1600)
Maverick McNealy +1.19 (+4000)
Farmers Insurance Open Course and Weather
From Nick Borrman:
First things first, for the second straight year, the tournament is being played Wednesday thru Saturday as to not conflict with NFL Championship Sunday. So, get your wagers in early this week!
The TOUR stays in California another week but shifts to the San Diego area at the beautiful Torrey Pines. I was lucky enough to be in attendance last year and trying to get around all 36 holes is a daunting task. There is a decent amount of up and down that doesn’t get spoken about enough around this venue.
Like last week, the tournament will be played on multiple courses, but unlike last week, it will shuffle between just two courses with the cut being standard after 36-holes. Players will make a lap around the South Course and the North Course before settling in for two rounds on the South Course over the weekend.
The South Course is the track most are familiar with hosting both the 2008 and 2021 US Opens. Tiger Woods and this year’s favorite, Jon Rahm, were the US Open winners here and it tells you how tough this track can play as the two best players in the world at the time were the eventual winners.
The South Course is the longest course on the TOUR schedule reaching up to 7,765 yards in length and it will play tough.
Fairways are narrow and rough is thick. This will be the first stern test of ball-striking and proper positioning around the course.
The North Course is considerably easier, and players must put up a low round during their 18 holes on the North if they want any chance to win this week. Last year, players on the North averaged 68.76 while the South came in at 72.35.
The Weather
Finally, the let’s talk weather. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s all four days and like it never does in San Diego, rain is not in the forecast. However, players will have to deal with winds pushing 20mph with higher gusts on Thursday’s 2nd round.
With the North playing so much easier, I would think that could give an edge to those playing the North on Wednesday with a better opportunity to go low. Everyone must hang on at the South Course anyway, so what’s a little extra wind?
Nick’s Farmers Insurance Open Predictions
It’s Rahm or bust this week, assuming you are targeting the favorite in anyway as his price is approaching ridiculous levels (if not already there). So, let’s do our best at finding any other option.
Outright Winner
Tony Finau +1400 (BetMGM or Bet365)
Finau ranks #2 in the field in Total SG over the last 6 months (take a guess at #1) and his distance will be a big advantage this week.
That has already proven to be the case at Torrey where Finau has some very strong history. He has made the cut in seven of eight starts here. In all seven times he made the weekend, he finished Top-25 with four of them Top-10.
Then of course you add-in that he is in the best form of his life as he finished #5 SG Tee to Green last season and #5 in Greens in Regulation while backing it up this season ranking #8 and again #5, respectively. Oh, and he is finally putting well ranking #5 SG Putting which leaves little doubt Tony will be in the mix on Sunday.
Top-20 Finish
Taylor Montgomery +130 (DraftKings or Bet365)
Eventually Montgomery will slip-up and have an off week, but until that does, we might as well continue to ride the train.
Taylor has made the weekend in all nine of this starts this season with eight of them finishing inside the Top-15! He literally has had one bad round out of 36 and that was a third round 76 in Houston which was his only finish outside the Top-15.
The concern this week is that his SG Approach numbers leave something to be desired ranking #157 this season, losing -0.33 strokes per round.
That could penalize him on the South Course, but so far it hasn’t. His Scrambling has been good, and his Putting has been lights out ranking #7 SG Putting which has led to #15 Birdie Average and #5 Scoring Average.
Then let’s remember Torrey was the place last year that put Montgomery on the map where he finished T11.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Not much to like about Grillo this week. He is off back-to-back MCs at the Sony Open and last week at The American Express.
He ranks #171 SG Around the Green which is likely to be a factor this week with Torrey’s smaller than average greens (not to mention narrower fairways and longer rough leading to more missed greens) and ranks #119 in SG Putting. The South Course is all about hanging on and making pars and I’m not sure Grillo will do that this week.
His history here suggests the same. He has missed the cut in each of the last three years and four of seven overall, with just three sub-70 rounds in 20 total rounds.
If you want any chance of making noise this week, you need to shoot in the 60s on the North which he has done just once in the last five years.
See you next week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Farmers Insurance Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview
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