Fortinet Championship Predictions and Betting Odds | Sept 15-18
Fortinet Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour kicks off its 2022-23 season in Napa Valley for the Fortinet Championship with Max Homa as the defending champ. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board and dives into some head-to-head matchups and things to look for when betting on this week’s PGA season opener.
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| 2022 Fortinet Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | September 15-18, 2022 |
| Where: | Silverado Resort in Napa, California |
| Defending Champ: | Max Homa |
| Current Favorite(s): | Max Homa +1000 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
2022-23 PGA Tour Season Preview
The last time we saw golf on the PGA Tour (a long three weeks ago!) Rory McIlroy earned victory at the Tour Championship to win his third FedEx Cup title. It was a fantastic season, marred by controversy surrounding LIV Golf, but the 2022-2023 season is primed to produce a ton of drama.
This will be the last wrap-around season as the PGA Tour returns to a calendar year season beginning in 2024. In addition, there are other changes this year including four additional Elevated Events (eight previously including Tournament of Champions, Genesis, Arnold Palmer, Memorial, WGC Match Play and the three Playoff events) which will increase the number of times we see elite fields, in addition to the majors.
The FedExCup Playoffs will become harder to qualify for with only 70 players making the cut at the first event (FedEx St. Jude) and 50 for the second (BMW Championship) before finishing with 30 at the Tour Championship as normal.
Fortinet Championship Odds Board
From a betting perspective, here’s what really mattered: 22 of 34 events in 2022 saw the winner come in hot, with a field ranking inside the top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months. That’s over 64% and a great way to start your search for outright winners. So, it only makes sense to start there again…
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds w/ starting strokes)
[#107] Taylor Pendrith +1.62 (+3000) DK
[#25] Corey Conners +1.59 (+1800) B365 | FD | PB
[#22] Max Homa +1.56 (+1600) B365 | PB
[#16] Hideki Matsuyama +1.14 (+1600) B365 | DK | PB
[#63] Cameron Davis +1.10 (+3300) B365
[#78] Matt Kuchar +1.09 (+8000) B365 | PB
[#136] Taylor Montgomery +1.05 (+5000) B365 | DK | FD | MGM
[#69] Davis Riley +1.04 (+3500) B365 | DK | PB
[#101] Brendan Steele +1.02 (+5000) B365
[#80] Denny McCarthy +1.02 (+5500) B365 | PB
Notables
[#71] Maverick McNealy +0.86 (+2800) MGM
[#55] Sahith Theegala +0.51 (+3000) DK | PB | MGM (+0.90 L3 Months)
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)
The Fortinet Championship Course & Field
Much like the PGA Tour’s final stop of the season consistently ending at East Lake, the Tour’s first stop of the year has been here for nine-straight years.
With the President’s Cup (or Ryder Cup, biannually) conveniently scheduled to follow this first event every year, it’s not the strongest field by any means. Instead, this is always a mix of rookies from the KFT looking to make their mark and just a few of the top players on Tour. This week’s field has only three of the World Golf Rankings’ top 25 players.
The North Course is a stock par-72 with par-5 scoring one of the most important metrics to watch. The winner will have to produce plenty of birdies this week as the winning score has averaged -19 over the last three years. The fairways are smaller than average, but the penalty for landing in the rough off the tee has been minimal with rough not exceeding three inches.
The weather looks fantastic as is often the case in Napa Valley. All four days are in the 70s with light winds rarely above 10 mph, making the tee time draw edge negligible this week.
Nick’s Fortinet Championship Betting Favorites
With last year proving the hottest players coming into a tournament are likely to win at nearly a 2-1 clip, it only makes sense to zero in on those players once again this week.
Outright Winner: Taylor Pendrith +3000 (DraftKings)
Pendrith is a bomber as he ranked No. 10 on Tour in driving distance last season and subsequently ranked No. 12 in Strokes Gained off the tee. However, he is more than just a long hitter as he also ranked No. 10 in greens in regulation which is a perfect recipe for success at Silverado Resort.
He is ranked No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months but not quite getting that same love from the oddsmakers as the sixth or seventh betting favorite at most books.
Pendrith does not yet have a win on Tour, but it feels like it’s only a matter of time. He was one of the hottest players to finish the season with six top-13 finishes in his last seven starts.
Top-20 Finisher: Emiliano Grillo +230 (Bet365)
Grillo ended last season in solid form making the cut in nine of his last 11 starts including finishing inside the top-20 in three of his last five with two runner-ups. Over the last three months, Grillo ranks No. 2 in the field in Total Strokes Gained averaging +1.44 per round behind only our outright selection, Taylor Pendrith.
Grillo didn’t have the best first-half-of-the-season last year, so some of his season-long numbers aren’t the best, but he did rank No. 18 in Strokes Gained off the tee and No. 25 in birdie average. He was also a respectable No. 36 in proximity to the hole.
Finally, Grillo is a past winner of this event and should be able to rely on that success to have him in contention on Sunday.
Featured Fortinet Championship Matchup
Max Homa (-120) over Hideki Matsuyama
Besides being the defending champion, Homa had the best season of his career last year, winning twice and finishing inside the top-25 in 15 of 24 events while only missing three cuts. He finished the season No. 13 in the FedEx Cup and No. 13 in Total Strokes Gained.
Matsuyama, meanwhile, limped to the finish line with just one top-10 in his final eight starts including a run of T60, DQ, 4th (US Open), MC, T68 and WD. His ball-striking was very good as usual, ranking No. 19 in Strokes Gained tee to green, but his putting left something to be desired at No. 114, compared to No. 29 for Homa. Matsuyama did finish 6th last year, but missed the cut in his previous start in 2019.
See you next week for the President’s Cup!
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s PGA season kickoff at the Fortinet Championship? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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