Genesis Invitational 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Genesis Invitational teeing off from Torrey Pines (South Course) in La Jolla, CA! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Genesis Invitational starting on February 13th!

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Genesis Invitational	Genesis Invitational Betting Notes
When:	February 13-16
Where:	Torrey Pines (South Course) in La Jolla, CA
Defending Champ:	Hideki Matsuyama
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Genesis Invitational Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

For the first time since 1998, Riviera Country Club will not host The Genesis Invitational due to the wildfires in and around the Palisades area. 

So let this serve as your reminder not to look at last year’s course notes before you breakdown this event. Instead, look to the Farmers Insurance Open notes from just three weeks ago as Torrey Pines South Course will host this year’s edition.

Unlike three weeks ago, all four rounds will be played on the more difficult South Course where the weather is likely to headline. 

Rain and wind are in the forecast on Thursday and Friday before both clearing out and calming down for the weekend. It will be interesting to see if there will be any sort of delays due to puddling as the rain will begin on Wednesday.  

The only good news is that the rain may help keep the course from showing its true teeth as conditions won’t be able to firm up. However, temperatures are forecasted to barely reach 60 degrees all week, so players certainly won’t be comfortable.

As a reminder, Torrey is a stock par 72 but tips out as the longest course the players face all year at over 7,700 yards. With softer and cooler conditions, that will play even longer. 

Additionally, rough has been allowed to reach four inches, and from several early videos circulating already this week, balls are simply disappearing when dropped in it. 

Wet, thick, deep rough is guaranteed to add strokes to wayward shots this week so the premium will certainly be on ball-striking and hitting fairways and greens.

While the competition was weaker at the Farmers Insurance Open, when the dust settled, only 24 players finished under par and that was with a full field of 156. Harris English won at 8-under proving a much different test than the 20-under (or lower) scores we have seen in the other tournaments this year.

This year’s designation of a Signature Event will bring out the best players in the world, though 

remember, this is a US Open course, and combined with dodgy weather, plus the fact that players don’t get one round on the much easier North Course, expect scores to be as high, if not higher this week.

The field is set at less than half of the Farmers Insurance Open, with just 72 players teeing it up. Even with the smaller field, there will still be a cut to the Top-50 and ties, or those within ten shots of the lead after 36-holes, offering that additional betting market this week.

Genesis Invitational Predictions

Winner: Collin Morikawa +1600 (FanDuel or DraftKings) | Top-10 +150 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

I like to hone in on one of the favorites along with a few mid-range or longshot guys and this week I like Morikawa at this price, especially when compared to Scheffler and McIlroy coming in at +400 or +700, respectively.

Though Collin did miss the cut in his last start here, that was last season at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open, as he did not enter this year’s event. 

Aside from that blip on the radar, has a solo 3^rd at the Farmers in 2023 and a T4 when Torrey hosted the US Open in 2021, proving Collin’s usual pedigree of hitting fairways and greens plays around here.

While it’s obviously early in the season, Morikawa leads the Tour as the only player hitting over 80% of Greens in Regulation. He also leads in SG Tee-to-Green, while finishing 11^th-4^th-17^th-2^nd-5^th in that category over the last five years.

Finally, with the rough as dangerous as it looks this week, I’ll back the guy who is likely to be in the rough a few less times over the course of 72-holes. Morikawa ranks 2^nd this season in Driving Accuracy, after ranking in the Top-10 in that statistic in three out of the last four years.

Winner: Taylor Pendrith +4000 (DraftKings or FanDuel) | Top-10 +330 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

Going back to the well here on Pendrith after a sizzling start to the season, there is no reason to think it won’t continue this week where he just finished T7 at the Farmers Insurance.

In fact, that is back-to-back Top-10s on this track as he finished T9 in 2024 along with a T16 in 2022.  However, this past year he has proven to be playing the best golf of his career.

Pendrith won The CJ CUP Byron Nelson last May and has been extremely consistent since then, missing just one cut (at the PGA Championship) in 19 starts since. In fact, he has 14 Top-25 finishes in those 19 starts including six Top-10s.

Pendrith has been doing much of his damage with his driver. He has always been extremely long, but he has combined that with better-than-average accuracy to rank 2^nd in SG Off the Tee this season and 1^st in Ball Striking.

Finally, aside from a T45 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Pendrith has finished no worse than T22 over his ten other most recent starts.

See you next week for the Mexico Open!

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