Genesis Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds February 15-18

Genesis Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Genesis Open teeing off from Riviera Golf Course in Pacific Palisades, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Genesis Open starting February 15th!

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Genesis Open	Genesis Open Betting Notes
When:	February 15-18
Where:	Riviera Golf Course in Pacific Palisades, CA
Defending Champ:	Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+650 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Genesis Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Genesis Open Betting Preview

The Genesis is the 3rd Signature Event of the season and like the first two, has a limited field, this time 70 players making the field. However, this week features a cut after 36-holes down to 50 (and ties) and all golfers within ten shots of the lead which will add a little something to the drama.

Tiger Woods will be making his 2024 debut. He is the host of the event but will also be competing as he looks for PGA Tour win #83.

Of course, Riviera is the one course that has tamed him as he has never won this event. While he is always looking to win, a successful tournament for him will be competing all four rounds as his begins his preparation for The Masters in two months’ time.

Riviera is a tough track. It plays to a par-71 at a little over 7,300 yards so distance off the tee will be an added benefit this week.

Additionally, hitting it straight with the big stick is just as important as the classic track features tight, tree-lined fairways. The greens are also difficult.

Though they aren’t small, measuring on average over 7,500 square feet, they play much smaller as they feature extreme slopes, and one even has a bunker placed smack dab in the middle of it!

The rough isn’t long, but it is very thick as the ball settles right to the bottom of the kikuyu grass and the bunkers are deep. It is hard to avoid bogeys when making mistakes at The Riv.

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The field, although limited to just 70, is very strong as nine of the Top-10 players in the world are teeing it up this week, the exception of course being the (not)defending champion Jon Rahm, who has moved to LIV Golf.

Trends to pay attention to this week include:
14 of the last 16 winners were at least 29 years of age,
14 of the last 16 winners have had at least three previous professional wins,
16 of the last 18 winners have played in at least four prior Genesis Invitational tournaments, and
14 of the last 18 winners have finished 12th or better in a previous Genesis Invitational

What do those trends tell us? Riviera rewards experienced players who know how to win and are familiar with all the tricky nuances around this property. While Ludvig Aberg is playing as well as anyone, he doesn’t fit the mold to crack the code at The Riv.

As always, the last aspect to preview is the weather. The good news for the players is that this week looks much better overall than the last two tournaments.

Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 60s and push 70 degrees with only the Sunday finale facing a rain threat. As it stands now, rain will be more likely in the afternoon so the Tour may push up tee times in the morning to avoid as much as possible.

Genesis Open Outright Winner: Collin Morikawa +2000 (Bet365)

From Nick Borrman:

This is it. The tournament that ends the run of longshot winners to start the 2024 season. Riviera is tough and rewards experience and past pedigree.

Morikawa certainly has that as the two-time major champion has returned to his winning ways having lifted the trophy at the ZOZO Championship back in October.

Morikawa meets most of the trends proven to be a winner here. Although not 29 years old (he’s 27), Morikawa has had four previous starts here including back-to-back Top-6 finishes and he has seven previous professional wins.

Morikawa is one of the best ball-strikers on the planet as he ranks 5th in SG Tee to Green over the last 12 months including 3rd in Approach.

His weakness is always with the flatstick, but that hasn’t proven to be the most important metric at Riviera.

Still, he has gained strokes putting in eight of his last 13 starts which has propelled him to eight Top-15 finishes and he has gained strokes putting in each of his last two starts here, both Top-6 finishes. Bottom line, if he putts even slightly above average, he will contend.

Genesis Open Top-10 Finish: Max Homa +190 (DraftKings)

This may be Homa’s favorite course and tournament and his win here three years ago was proof of that as he was visually choked up during the trophy presentation.

He nearly won again last year finishing solo 2nd to Jon Rahm which was his fourth straight Top-10 finish here. I mean, we are in Southern California and very few people do it better in this state than Max Homa.

He is coming off a MC last week at the WM Phoenix Open which followed a very lackluster T66 the week prior at Pebble Beach. So that is back-to-back poor starts for Homa, but I am fully confident this is just the place to get him back on track.

Prior to those two starts, Homa had finished inside the Top-15 in ten straight starts including six Top-10s and a win on the DP World Tour at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in November.

His driver let him down the last two weeks and if he gets that back on track as he had been hitting previously, gaining strokes off the tee in 13 straight starts, there is very little doubt he will be in the mix on Sunday.

See you next week for the Mexico Open!

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