Houston Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds March 28-31

Houston Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Houston Open teeing off from Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, TX. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Houston Open starting March 28th!

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Houston Open	Houston Open Betting Notes
When:	March 28-31
Where:	Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, TX
Defending Champ:	Tony Finau
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+260 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Houston Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Houston Open Betting Preview

Scottie Scheffler is less than 3-1 to win this event. Those are insane odds and only seen in the modern betting era by Tiger Woods.

It’s either all in on Scottie Scheffler this week, or, spread the love around and hope Scheffler slips coming out of the locker room on Thursday and has to withdraw before teeing it up. Or better yet, look to the ‘Without Scottie Scheffler’ markets this week. But I’m getting ahead of myself, let’s talk about the course first.

While not in rotation in the 2023 calendar, Tony Finau is the defending champion with the Houston Open last being played in November of 2022 where it slotted in the schedule for three successive editions. Now it is back in its early springtime position.

The course is a par-70 that plays over 7,400 yards. It is long and the players will face an above average number of mid to long irons this week.

Cue up the ball-strikers, ahem, Scottie. There are five par 3s at Memorial Park to go along with three par 5s which are all difficult and not necessarily automatic birdie looks.

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With the tournament being played once again in the spring, the seasons are different and thus, so is the grass.

The rough is basically non-existent this week at less than 1.5 inches which should help scoring compared to the fall editions, but this tournament is more like what we saw last week at Innisbrook than it is a birdie fest. Par is a good score on most holes around here.

After Scottie, World #4 Wyndham Clark is the next best in the field, followed by Tony Finau, Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris, all likely to get attention this week. From there though is a large dropoff and the odds at least suggest we are quickly falling into longshot range.

Temperatures will hover around 80 degrees all week and unlike last week, moisture is nowhere in the forecast. The winds though should play a role in keeping scoring higher.

Thursday looks the calmest with winds in the 10-20 mph range before kicking up to 15-25 mph over the final three days.

It’s possible the earliest tee times on Friday may face slightly less impactful winds as they generally pickup as the day goes on, so check the forecast one last time on Wednesday before placing your bets.

Houston Open Outright Winner: Sahith Theegala +1600 (FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

All books are offering this market this week for good reason and if you are an Outright bettor, it’s worth looking here as the prices aren’t that much different and you don’t have to worry about the likely winner playing spoiler.

Of the next wave of names, I’m zeroing in on Sahith Theegala this week. He arrives in good form with three Top-10s in his last four starts including a solo 5th at The Phoenix Open, a T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T9 two weeks ago at THE PLAYERS.

Theegala has plenty of length which will be a big boost this week and he is solid with his long irons as he ranked 11th in proximity from 200-250 yards last season. He has also been rolling a red-hot putter this year ranking 7th in SG Putting.

Theegala has played here twice before with his best finish coming in the last edition with a T22. But he is a much more consistent player now and proven winner.

Houston Open Top-20 Finish: Tom Hoge +200 (Bet365)

I think Hoge is a steal for a Top-20 this week at this price. Hoge is an iron player. It’s as simple as that as he ranks 2nd in SG Approach this season and 4th in proximity from over 200 yards.

In this field, it’s him and Scottie as the only two players averaging more than +1.0 SG Approach over the last six months as Hoge has averaged +1.42 not far behind Scheffler at +1.51.

Hoge has gained strokes on approach in 13 straight starts and aside from his iron play, he has been putting great as well gaining strokes in seven of his last eight.

While not great results, Hoge does have two laps around Memorial Park playing here in 2020 and 2021 so I think having familiarity along with striking his irons perhaps the best he ever has should propel him into contention on Sunday.

See you next week for the Valero Texas Open!

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