Men's Olympic Golf Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds August 1-4

Men’s Olympic Golf Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Men’s Olympic Golf event teeing off from Le Golf National in Paris, France! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Men’s Olympic Golf teeing off on August 1st!

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Men’s Olympic Golf	Men’s Olympic Golf Betting Notes
When:	August 1-4
Where:	Le Golf National in Paris, France
Defending Champ:	Xander Schauffele
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+360 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, Peacock

Men’s Olympic Golf Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Men’s Olympic Golf Betting Preview

Le Golf National is a club that many people in this field are familiar with as it is the host of the annual Open de France which is a regular DP World Tour event.

Guys like Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood and Guido Migliozzi are all past winners of that event while on the other hand, all four players on Team USA have never played here before, at least not competitively.

That alone will likely keep much of my card to the Europeans this week though it’s hard not to see Xander or Scottie playing well.

During the DP World Tour event, the course plays near 7,250 yards though this week it is setup about 100 yards shorter near 7,150 yards.

It is a stock par-71 with three par 5s and features rather large putting greens at around 7,500 square feet on average.

Standard PGA Tour courses average between 6,000 and 6,500 with Pebble Beach boasting the smallest greens at around 3,500 square feet on average, as a basis for comparison.

There are quite a few course setup nuances worth discussing. First, when it comes to finding the fairway, this week will be more difficult than most as many of the landing areas for longer hitters are squeezed and tend to follow closely along pond banks or have run-off areas to fairway bunkers and long fescue. In fact, one of the best-case studies for this week is the 2018 Ryder Cup.

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While there are only five players in the field this week that competed in the event, it’s the course setup that is worth noting as opposed to the player’s experience.

The course was renovated just before that Ryder Cup and the host Europeans set it up to reward accuracy to lessen the impact of the long-hitting Americans.

That recipe worked perfectly as Europe won big 17.5 to 10.5 and much of this week’s setup will be the same. Yet another reason to favor the Europeans this week.

Fairways in general are relatively flat though compared to the rolling hills found all throughout the rough giving plenty of incentive to find the fairway off the tee (they brought in 270,000 dump trucks of dirt over three years during construction to create all the mounding).

Additionally, this area in France has received high amounts of rain this year leading to very thick and lush rough which players will certainly want to avoid. Bottom line, there is a premium on hitting the fairway this week and I think we may see plenty of players keep driver in the bag.

Even though this is the Olympics, we are still looking at a standard 72-hole event, though with only 60 players in the field, there will be no cut. Additionally, because players are attempting to earn a medal (gold, silver, bronze), there will a playoff for any one of those medals. In 2021, CT Pan won a 7-man playoff for bronze.

Finally, the weather looks to be a non-factor this week. There is a chance of evening showers on Thursday, which could soften the course on Friday, but aside from that, neither rain nor wind is likely to have an impact on play.

Men’s Olympic Golf Outright Winner: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (FanDuel)

From Nick Borrman:

With the top four favorites in this field priced at 10-1 or lower, I’m going to start my search a little deeper down the list with Tommy Fleetwood.

While he notably is still winless on U.S. soil, he does boast seven wins on the European circuit including winning on this very course in 2017. He was also a part of that 2018 victorious European Ryder Cup team in which the Brit went 4-1-0.

While Fleetwood did miss the cut at The Open Championship in his last start, he had finished inside the Top-21 in seven of his other ten most recent starts including a T3 at the Masters and a T16 at the U.S. Open.

He is not long off the tee, but as I mentioned prior, I don’t think that’s important this week, but he is very accurate, ranking 8th in Driving Accuracy this season at nearly 70%.

Overall, Fleetwood doesn’t have many weaknesses in his game as he is a consistent gainer in all five SG categories, he has just lacked that closing ability in the big events.

While this is another big event, it’s a limited field and very top-heavy. He only has to navigate roughly 20-25 players that have a realistic shot to win this week.

Men’s Olympic Golf Top-10 Finish: Sepp Straka +280 (FanDuel)

Straka has been quietly awesome this season, especially over the last four months. Dating back to THE PLAYERS in mid-March, he has nine Top-25 finishes in 14 starts including three Top-5s.

Straka is another very accurate driver, as he ranks #1 in Driving Accuracy this season while also ranking 5th in SG Approach in this field over the last three months, both of which will be crucial areas of the game needed this week to contend.

Straka’s weakness is his short game where he has lost strokes around the greens more than he has gained this season.

The good news is that as good as he is hitting his irons, he shouldn’t need to count on his short game to bail him out, plus with a smaller competitive field, he probably only needs to beat 20-30 players that could realistically post a Top-10.

See you next week for the Wyndham Championship!

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