Mexico Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds February 22-25

Mexico Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Mexico Open teeing off from Vidanta Vallarta, North of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Mexico Open starting February 22nd!

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Mexico Open	Mexico Open Betting Notes
When:	February 22-25
Where:	Vidanta Vallarta, North of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Defending Champ:	Tony Finau
Current Favorite:	Tony Finau (+800 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Mexico Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Mexico Open Betting Preview

With last week being a Signature Event, it’s expected to see a weaker field this week in Mexico. For the most casual of golf fans, you might recognize one name this week and that is the favorite, and defending champion, Tony Finau.

Aside from that, only three other players in the Top-50 in the world are in the field, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, and Emilano Grillo. It’s a light field to say the least.

This event is only in its third edition, so we don’t have a ton of course history to look at this week. The inaugural champion is the now defunct, Jon Rahm, while the defending champion, I already mentioned is Tony Finau.

Rahm was the favorite both years with Finau 2nd on the oddsboard last year. So much for taking a chance on longshots, but this year’s edition is two months earlier than its usual spot in April, and 2024 is the year of the longshot, so don’t get scared now.

The course measures 7,400 yards and plays to a par-71, though it’s not your stock 71, as it features four par-5s and five par-3s.

Because this is a resort course, the fairways here are as wide as any on the PGA Tour and its relatively flat throughout, though there are several water hazards that come into play.

Rahm’s winning score in 2022 was -17, but Finau scorched the track last year at -24 and we should expect to see the winner eclipsing the -20 number again this year.

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Though scoring tends to be low, mainly because it’s hard to get into too much trouble off the tee, this is not a wedge fest.

Because of the overall length, players will be facing a high percentage of approach shots from 175 yards or more so look at those that excel in proximity like Taylor Pendrith who ranked 6th last season from 175-200 yards or Nicolai Hojgaard who ranks 2nd this season.

Of course, the favorite, Tony Finau, ranked #1 last year and is currently #4 this season on proximity from 200-225 yards, so yea, never mind.

On that topic, it is worth noting that the course ranked longest and second-longest in proximity to the hole in the first two seasons on Tour (of all courses where ShotLink is used).

Unlike the last few weeks, weather looks to be a non-factor with temperatures in the mid-80s, winds less than 10 mph, and no rain in sight.

Mexico Open Outright Winner: Michael Kim +6000 (Bet365, FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

Aside from being the best golf follow on X (Twitter), Kim has a real shot to win this week. He arrives in good form with four Top-25 finishes in his last eight starts including a T6 last month at The American Express.

His irons have been solid as he has gained strokes on approach in six straight (measured) events. He also ranks 6th in the field in SG Approach over the last six months which is important based on the difficulty the course has proven to be in proximity to the hole.

With nobody hitting it close here, that also puts a premium on putting and Kim is solid in that area as well, ranking 13th in the field in SG Putting over the last six months.

While there isn’t much course history to look at, Kim did play here last year and finished a respectable T30 on the heels of a strong short game and hot putter. If he can add his irons this year, that combination is a recipe for success.

Mexico Open Top-20 Finish: Jake Knapp +200 (Bet365)

Much of this suggestion is based on hype and potential as the Korn Ferry Tour product only just earned his Tour card this season, but in four starts he did log an impressive T3 at Torrey Pines in the Farmers Insurance Open while also finishing a respectable T28 at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago.

He was one of the best on the KFT and over his final 11 starts last season he finished T21 or better nine times including six Top-10s.

His skillset is pretty simply. Bombs away! The guy can simply smash it, but while it’s obviously a short sample size, Knapp is also gaining strokes in all four categories, so he is well-rounded.

He is probably not ready to win yet, but he can contend and make up a run up the leaderboard.

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