Mexico Open Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds April 27-30

Mexico Open Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Mexico Open teeing off from Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Mexico Open this week!

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Mexico Open	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	April 22-25
Where:	Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico
Defending Champ:	Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:	Jon Rahm (+275 at DraftKings)
TV:	GOLF Network & CBS

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Mexico Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.05 (+275)
Tony Finau +2.18 (+850)
Wyndham Clark +1.53 (+2000)
Alex Noren +0.94 (+4700)
Patrick Rodgers +0.93 (+3300)
Eric Cole +0.72 (+10000)
Gary Woodland +0.68 (+2800)
Maverick McNealy +0.68 (+4700)
Beau Hossler +0.65 (+4500)
Stephan Jaegar +0.63 (+5500)

Mexico Open Course and Field – Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico

From Nick Borrman:

This feels like the old days of Tiger vs the field as Masters champion and defending Vidanta champion Jon Rahm is the clear-cut favorite going off at less than three-to-one.

A good option this week is look at the “win without Rahm” market which will bring everyone else into play. Besides Rahm, Tony Finau (#16) and Alex Noren (#50) are the only other two players ranked in the Top-50, and only six other players rank inside the Top-100.

But I’ll go back to choosing an Outright winner this week. While there is a good chance that someone outside the Top-100 will make a good run, do you really expect them to beat Rahm?

The Norman Signature Course is long, a par 71 measuring over 7,400 yards. There are still four par 5s however, which is offset by five par 3s this week. The back nine features three par 5s, three par 4s and three par 3s, just your standard mix of holes!

Vidanta is bombers paradise and features the longest combination of par 4s and par 5s on TOUR. Distance matters here more than most venues with wide landing areas and light rough, plus, the course is also at sea level with the shoreline just a mile away. There is still trouble around though as there are 106 bunkers on property and water in play on 14 holes.

Weather looks good for all four rounds with no rain in the forecast, but moderate winds are expected throughout. It doesn’t appear there will be any tee time draw advantage this week.

Mexico Open Predictions

Either throw all your eggs on Rahm this week or avoid him and sprinkle around on several in the Top-20 or 30 on the oddsboard. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

Outright Winner

Wyndham Clark +2000 (BetMGM)

I’ll go for the 2nd option this week when it comes to Outrights and if you follow me with any regularity, you know I often back Wyndham Clark in weak field events.

Last week was a perfect example as I took Clark who was paired with Beau Hossler at the Zurich Classic partner’s event.

They led after each of the first three rounds but ran out of steam on Sunday and finished 3rd. That was Clark’s third Top-6 finish in his last four starts, all of those being weak field events.

However, he can perform in the deepest of fields as well as he has now made the cut in 14 straight starts including five designated events.

Clark has gained strokes on approach in all but one of those 14 events which will be important this week with so many long par 4s and par 5s in play.

Take away Rahm, and Clark is the 2nd favorite this week for good reason. He ranks 3rd in this field in Total SG over the last 12, six and three months.

Leaderboard Finish

Nicolai Hojgaard Top-10 +280 | Top-20 +130 (DraftKings)

Just one month ago, Hojgaard finished runner-up in Puntacana where he led the field in distance and co-led in Greens in Regulation and as I already alluded to, that length will be a big advantage this week.

Hojgaard has earned Special Temporary Membership status and while it has only just kicked in five weeks ago, don’t look past his recent results on the European Tour as well with four Top-13 finishes in his last six starts dating back to December.

Because of his recent form, Hojgaard ranks 5th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over that span, gaining strokes in all five categories.

Hojgaard has the talent to win on TOUR and this field gives him a chance, but I’ll play it safe with a couple of leaderboard bets.

See you next week for the Wells Fargo Championship!

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