Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds February 1-4

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Pebble Beach Pro-Am teeing off from Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill in Pebble Beach, California. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Pebble Beach Pro-Am starting February 1st!

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Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Notes
When:	February 1-4
Where:	Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill in Pebble Beach, California
Defending Champ:	Justin Rose
Current Favorite:	Rory McIlroy (+750 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

With the deepest field we have seen so far this season, there is no way the run of 150-1, 300-1 or even 400-1 long shots can continue to win, right?

As the Tour sets its sights on the famed Pebble Beach Golf Club, for the third straight week we will be treated to an event where the players will be playing on multiple courses. However, unlike the last two weeks, there is no cut for this 80-man Signature Event.

The players will rotate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday before playing both weekend rounds at Pebble Beach.

To throw in another curveball, as the name of the event implies, the field will be paired with amateurs for the first two rounds as well.

There is certainly a lot going on this week, and while the field is obviously strong, use caution on some of the big names as many have skipped this event over the years to avoid all that chaos.

Both courses are stock par 72s, but neither of them is long. Pebble comes in at just under 7,000 yards which is rare in today’s game, but remember, this is also a US Open Course.

What it lacks in length, it fights back in target size as the greens at Pebble are the smallest of any course on the PGA Tour. Additionally, the rough height has increased by an inch this year up to 3 inches.

On the other track, Spyglass also features smaller than average greens so certainly ball-striking, especially from 150 yards and in, will be paramount.

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History proved accurate at Torrey last week when it comes to predicting winning scores and this week, we should expect to see slightly lower scores, in the -17 to -19 range where the winner has finished each of the last eight years.

However, the main factor that may keep that from happening this year is the weather. Simply put, it’s not good. Rain is expected every day, temperatures aren’t going to get out of the 50s, and wind is likely to be a big factor with gusts expected to reach upwards of 30 mph at times.

It’s hard to predict any advantage to tee times though as the worst of the wind is expected on Sunday. Either way, it sounds like a miserable week for the players.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Winner: Justin Thomas +2800 (FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

It’s been a long time since I bet on JT in any market, let alone the Outright Winner, but this seems like the time to jump back on board.

We rarely see JT at this long of a price. Even in his darkest days over the last year, he was never much longer than these odds and now he is showing excellent form with four straight Top-5s coming in.

This is one of those scenarios I just have to bet him for FOMO reasons. If he wins, or even contends again, it seems almost impossible we will see him at this price for a while.

Over his last four starts, he has gained strokes on both approach and around the green in each event, both of which are key metrics I’m looking at this week with Pebble’s small greens.

It will take strong iron play to hit more than the field average and considering everyone will miss at times, it’s good to know his short game is strong. He has also gained strokes putting in three of four events.

JT’s driver is about the only thing that hasn’t been great during his run, but he is coming off his best week of his last four gaining +0.80 strokes per round. Now’s the time to go all in on JT.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top-20 Finish: J.T. Poston +160 (Bet365)

Poston doesn’t have good course history this week as he has played in this event just twice finishing 66th and 68th in 2017 and 2018, but considering many of the top names have skipped this event over the years, I’m not too worried.

Instead, I’m betting on his form which has been fantastic as he has finished in the Top-25 in ten of his last 12 starts dating back to the John Deere Classic in July.

He took off last week at Torrey Pines to get ready for this event but played in each of the first three events of 2024 finishing T5, 6th and T11.

Poston’s weakness is with his driver as he’s not long, nor super accurate for that matter, but his approach game is strong, gaining strokes in ten of his last 11 starts, his short game is solid, gaining strokes in nine of his last 13 starts, and his putting is lights out, gaining strokes in 12 straight starts where he ranks #2 in this field in SG Putting over the last six months.

Ride the hot hand with the “other” JT this week.

See you next week for the WM Phoenix Open!

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