PGA Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds May 16-19

PGA Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the PGA Championship teeing off from Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the PGA Championship starting May 9th!

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PGA Championship	PGA Championship Nelson Betting Notes
When:	May 16-19
Where:	Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY
Defending Champ:	Brooks Koepka
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	ESPN, Golf Channel, CBS

PGA Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

PGA Championship Betting Preview

The second major of the year arrives with plenty of storylines ahead. Can Scheffler make it five wins in six starts? Can Rory win two instances of back-to-backs after claiming victory of Quail Hollow last week, and the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club 10 years ago? Can Koepka catch fire and win his 4th PGA Championship?

The Jack Nicklaus designed Valhalla Golf Club is the site of the 106th PGA Championship which last hosted ten years ago.

Rory won, Tiger missed the cut, and Koepka played in hist first PGA, while many other superstars weren’t even on the circuit yet including Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Morikawa, Hovland, Zalatoris and of course the Masters runner-up Ludvig Aberg. All-in-all, 34 players are in the field this week that also competed in the 2014 edition.

So, for many, this is their first trip around the course at least in a professional competition. Scouting the property screams one thing.

Distance is not only an advantage this week, it is absolutely needed to truly contend. At just over 7,600 yards, Valhalla is a beast and will test the players entire bag as par will be a good score all week.

Oddly though, despite its length (the course played about 150 yards less in 2014), it ranked short for average driver distance off the tee that season, ranking as the 11th shortest driver average, which suggests that perhaps accuracy shouldn’t be sacrificed for distance.

The greens average only 5,000 square feet which is under the Tour average, and with the notion that long irons will be common clubs hit on approach, attacking from the short grass is a must.

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That means another important metric to look at this week is proximity on approach shots of 175 yards or longer. Wedges and short irons will not be in players’ hands often this week, unless perhaps a third shot on one of just three par 5s, on this stock par 71.

The PGA features the biggest field of any of the professional majors as 156 players will compete including 21 PGA Club Professionals headlined by last year’s darling, Michael Block.

You should also be aware that the old cut rules of Top-70 and ties will be included for Saturday and Sunday tee times this week, notable if betting in the “Make/Miss Cut” markets.

Weather looks mainly good except for a likely bout of thunderstorms on Friday which could make finishing the second round a challenge if players are pulled off the course for a significant amount of time.

Temperatures look steady in the upper 70s and low 80s all week while winds shouldn’t play a factor. With additional thunderstorms in the forecast before the event, on Tuesday and Wednesday, the course will play it’s softest, and likely easiest, on Thursday, specifically early in the day.

Check out weather updates as the week goes on to see if anything changes, otherwise the Thursday AM wave may have a slight scoring advantage because of the softer conditions.

PGA Championship Outright Winners: Byrson DeChambeau +2800 (FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

In what feels like a battle between Scottie and Rory, I’ll look in another direction to Bryson DeChambeau who had a great showing at the Masters where he finished T6. That capped a stretch of five straight Top-10 finishes as he was showing up on every leaderboard on the LIV circuit.

With a T26 and T27 in his last two starts, however, I feel it’s only provided us with a slightly better price this week while it’s not something that worries me.

Bryson finished T4 at the PGA Championship last year and followed that up with a T20 at the US Open, proving that the past US Open winner shows up when the challenge is at its toughest.

We all know Bryson can smash the ball and that distance will be a big advantage over most of the field this week.

Additionally, he is a solid iron player and putter, though his short game could leave something to be desired. But if he drives the ball like we saw him do at Augusta, that alone will provide him six or more shots on the field and should be enough to see him in contention on Sunday.

PGA Championship Top-20 Finish: Sepp Straka +320 (Bet365)

The Austrian is in good form right now with four straight Top-20s and five of the last six, including each of the designated events and the majors. Those impressive finishes include:

T16 THE PLAYERS
T16 Masters Tournament
T5 RBC Heritage
T8 Wells Fargo Championship

While not known for his distance, Straka is average on Tour driving distance, he ranks T31 in SG Off the Tee thanks to ranking 3rd in Driving Accuracy, hitting 78% of fairways this season.

At a major championship, staying out of trouble is crucial and I believe it’s a big reason we saw him finish T2 at The Open and a T7 in this same PGA Championship last season.

While his driver is always good, his irons have caught fire as he ranks 6th in SG Approach since the Masters. He is also putting great averaging more than +0.50 strokes per round.

If he keeps hitting fairways and greens and makes just a few putts along the way, he should easily be on the first or second page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

See you next week for the Charles Schwab Challenge!

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