PGA Cognizant Classic 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Cognizant Classic teeing off from PGA National Resort & Spa (The Champion) in Palm Beach Gardens, FL! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Cognizant Classic starting on February 27th!

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Cognizant Classic	Cognizant Classic Betting Notes
When:	February 27 – March 2
Where:	PGA National Resort & Spa (The Champion) – Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Defending Champ:	Austin Eckroat
Current Favorite:	Shane Lowry (+2000 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Cognizant Classic Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Cognizant Classic Betting Preview

The former Honda Classic, under its new name for the 2^nd year, kicks off the Florida Swing once again as players transition from the poa annua greens of the west to the bermudagrass greens in the Sunshine State.

With next week scheduled to be a Signature Event, this tournament doesn’t normally boast a strong field, but this year does have a few big names, certainly more than we saw last week in Mexico including a Ryder Cuppers Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Russell Henley.  

The course is tough. Only four of the last 12 winners have finished double digits under par (better than -10).  Wayward shots are penalized here more than most tracks as water is realistically in play on 15 of 18 holes.

The famed ‘Bear Trap’ is one of the toughest stretches of holes on Tour as one poor shot quickly brings double into play. That stretch consists of the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th, all with water ready to gobble up errant shots. 

Since the beginning of the tournament 17 years ago, that three-hole stretch has averaged over par in every single edition including +0.435 last year.

The course had played to a par-70 for years, but last year it debuted as a par-71. The par-4 10th hole was converted into a par-5 and this year it has been extended a further 20 yards to 550, bringing the overall course length to just over 7,150 yards.

Additionally, the putting surfaces are larger than average at 7,000 square feet and feature Bermudagrass that can be very slick this time of year.  

While having a hot putter always helps, and it may be the difference if your Tee-to-Green play is good, this is a ball-strikers paradise. Each of the last seven years, the winner has ranked no worse than 5th in that department for the week including ranking #1 four straight years from 2018-2021.

In fact, if you look at the Top-10 SG T2G each year, it is nearly a mirror image of the actual Top-10. So, as you normally should, pay attention to those that are in good ball-striking form with an extra emphasis on SG Approach. 

Wind is always a factor at PGA National but this year it looks to be rather tame as the worst day, Friday, is only forecasted to be between 10-15 mph and probably not enough of an uptick to create any significant tee time wave advantage.

Rain is also absent from the forecast and temperatures look beautiful in the upper 70s to 80 degrees all week.

Cognizant Classic Predictions

Winner: Daniel Berger +2800 | Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150

It’s been a long while since I have bet on Daniel Berger. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he disappeared for 18 months missing the 2^nd half of 2022 and all of 2023 with back issues. As he returned last year, he clearly was out of tournament shape and needed reps to make a comeback.

Fast forward to now and it appears Berger has made the turn back to contender with five Top-21 finishes in his last eight starts including a solo 12^th at The Genesis Invitational and a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open this season.  He also finished co-runner-up at the RSM Classic in November.

Combine his good play, which brings confidence along with it, and his history at this event with three different Top-4 finishes, and he should feel strongly about his chances to contend once again this week.

Because of his absence, there is no data that will show Berger in any “Top” rankings over what I normally like to look for, that 6-to-12 month range, but this play is about his resurgence and getting ahead of the number before he inevitably wins again.

Winner: Andrew Novak +5500 | Top-10 +550 | Top-20 +250

Not the sexy 100-1 longshot here, but Novak checks all the boxes to have a great week. In his last four starts, he has finished T13 or better in three of those including tough fields and courses at The Genesis Invitational (-12), Pebble Beach (-21) and Farmers Insurance Open (-8), the number in parenthesis representing the winner’s final score.  Notable as 8-under to 14-under seems to be the likely sweet spot for the winner this week.

Going back to the RBC Canadian Open last June, Novak has missed only four cuts in 18 starts while finishing Top-25 in ten of those events.

While still searching for his first PGA Tour win, Novak contested here last year as well ultimately finishing T9.  

Finally, Novak has had a balanced game as he is one of only seven players in the field gaining strokes in all five categories over the last six months.

See you next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational!

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