PGA Houston Open 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Houston Open 2025 Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Houston Championship teeing off from Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course in Houston, TX! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Houston Open starting on March 27th!

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Houston Open	Houston Open Betting Notes
When:	March 27 – 30
Where:	Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course in Houston, TX
Defending Champ:	Stephan Jaeger
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+500 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Houston Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Houston Open Betting Preview

The Houston Open has moved around over the last few seasons. While this will now be the 5^th edition being hosted at Memorial Park, the time of the year the tournament has fallen has changed.

When the tournament shifted to Memorial Park beginning with the 2020 COVID season, the Houston Open was scheduled in the fall and slated the week prior to the historic November edition of the Masters. It was played again in the fall the following year. Last year the tournament was moved back to its early spring position.

What’s notable about this time of year is unlike what we saw during the Florida Swing, the rough is almost non-existent at less than 1.5” tall, compared to the 3.5” to 4” which saw each week in Florida.

However, just like we saw during the Florida Swing, this tournament does not yield a low winning score as the winner has finished at 13-under, 10-under, 16-under and 12-under the last four years.

A total of just seven players reached double-digits under par over the first three editions combined, while ten players bunched up last year to finish between 10 and 12-under.

As tradition in Texas, much of that can be attributed by wind conditions, but it also may have something to do with the fact this is just a par 70, so going low in comparison to par, is always going to be more difficult.

At over 7,400 yards, Memorial Park is the longest par 70 non-major on the PGA Tour schedule. It is long and thus players will face an above average number of mid to long irons this week.

There are five par 3s at Memorial Park to go along with three par 5s which are all difficult and not necessarily automatic birdie looks.

Scottie has been a regular at this event in the backyard of where he grew up, but this time, he is joined by THE PLAYERS Champion Rory McIlroy who is making his debut on this track.

From there, it’s a major drop-off in terms of consistency as evidenced by the Strokes Gained chart, quickly falling into mid-to-longshot range.

As it stands now, rain will likely make an impact on both Thursday and Friday. Showers are forecasted Thursday morning before a steadier afternoon rain moves in.

Depending on the severity of the rain though, play should continue so long as water doesn’t pool. That system will remain in place into Friday in which thunderstorms, aka, delays are likely.

A ‘regular’ rain generally doesn’t bother players too much, it’s the combination with wind that makes conditions very difficult. Wind appears to be steady all four days in the 10-20 mph range, so I’m not entirely certain of a tee time draw yet, but it would stand to make sense that the longer it takes for the rain to arrive on Thursday should give the AM wave a likely advantage.

Houston Open Predictions

Winner: Aaron Rai +2800 | Top-10 +280 | Top-20 +130

Easy to argue there are two favorites while everyone else falls into the mid-tier range, and you certainly don’t need me to tell you to bet Scottie or Rory. But in sticking with players ranked in the Top-10 of the oddsboard, Aaron Rai is likely to get plenty of attention this week.

Rai is coming in having posted three straight Top-15 finishes and has the benefit of being rested, choosing to skip last week’s Valspar Championship.

Though Rai is not ‘long’ by PGA Tour standards so you would think that would hurt him on this track, but that hasn’t stopped him thus far with three starts and three Top-20 finishes.

He finished T19 in his debut in 2022 and T7 each of the last two years where he found his stride on the greens, gaining more than +8.0 strokes putting. Each of the four winners here have all finished inside the Top-5 SG Putting that week, so his comfort on the greens is a good omen.

Rai’s ability to avoid getting into trouble at a track where par is a good score is a solid recipe.

Winner: Maverick McNealy +5500 | Top-10 +500 | Top-20 +225

Golf can be a fickle thing. After back-to-back finishes of T9 at the WM Phoenix Open and a runner-up at The Genesis Invitational, McNealy has now missed the cut in his last two starts in the Florida Swing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and at THE PLAYERS. He was riding a nice combination of approach play with a hot putter, but both failed to show up.

However, his ceiling is high as evidenced by those two starts prior to the Florida Swing and oh yea, he won the RSM Classic in November. When betting a field against proven winners like Scottie and Rory, potential and a high ceiling is exactly what’s needed.

He also seems to have comfortability on this track. In three starts here, he is a perfect 3-for-3 with no worse than a T27 finish.

See you next week for the Valero Texas Open!

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