PGA Mexico Open 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Mexico Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Mexico Open teeing off from Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Mexico Open starting on February 20th!

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Mexico Open	Mexico Open Betting Notes
When:	February 20-23
Where:	Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
Defending Champ:	Jake Knapp
Current Favorite:	Akshay Bhatia (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Mexico Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Mexico Open Betting Preview

The West Coast Swing has officially come to an end and next week begins the Florida Swing leaving this lone tournament in Mexico sandwiched in the middle. With that in mind, this is an extremely weak field with only three of the Top-50 in the OWGR teeing it up here.

That means, unless you are a golf nerd like me, you are unlikely to know many, if any of the names in this field highlighted by Akshay Bhatia, Aaron Rai, and Rasmus Hojgaard (the three in the Top-50).

This event is only in its fourth edition, so we don’t have a ton of course history to look at this week. The first two editions were played in April and the general theme was to grip and rip with driver as the rough was cut short.  Last year however, the rough was allowed to grow a bit, up to 2.5” which made for a more balanced attack.

Because this is a resort course, the fairways are as wide as any on the PGA Tour and it’s relatively flat throughout, though there are several water hazards that come into play. The course measures 7,400 yards and plays to a par-71, but not your stock 71, as it features four par-5s and five par-3s.

Scoring here tends to be low, mainly because it’s hard to get into too much trouble off the tee, but this is certainly not a wedge fest. 

Because of the track’s length, players will be facing a high percentage of approach shots from 175 yards or more so look at those that excel in Proximity from at least that yardage like Justin Lower and last year’s Champion, Jake Knapp, who both sit in the Top-10 in Proximity from over 175 yards this year.

On that topic, it is worth noting that the course ranked longest, second-longest, and third-longest in Proximity, respectively, in the first three seasons on Tour.

One interesting stat that I think is worth noting is the course features both the second-hardest par 4 last year averaging 4.44 (hole #10), which also ranked fourth-hardest the year prior, and the easiest par-4 on Tour in all three years since this tournament began averaging 3.34 (hole #7).  One full shot disparity on the same par is wild.

The first two editions of this tournament were won by Jon Rahm and Tony Finau who each ranked as the Top-2 betting favorites both years, but these types of tournaments are generally when it makes sense to take your shot down the oddsboard, and the data this season backs that up.

Though the sample is relatively small, of the three Signature Events this season, the Winner ranked inside the Top-10 in SG (over the previous 12 months) in all three, with an average rank of 3.7 and odds of +1800.  But, in the four regular events, the average rank in Total SG (over the previous 12 months) was 37 with odds of +9100.

Finally, weather looks to be a non-factor this week with temperatures in the mid-80s, winds less than 10 mph, and no rain in sight.

Mexico Open Predictions

Winner: Patrick Rodgers +2200 | Top-10 +260 | Top-20 +125

I actually don’t like that he finished solo 3^rd last week at The Genesis after sleeping on the 54-hole lead, though it proves he is playing well. Well, let me correct myself, I like the fact that he played well, I just don’t like that it has lowered his odds this week.

Regardless of his result last week, he was someone I had circled for this event based on the fact he finished in the Top-10 in all three editions of this tournament.  

The concern is that this is his seventh straight start, so at some point he may began to fade without rest, but I’m banking on his momentum from last week carrying over here in a field he should bring real confidence that he can beat.

Winner: Justin Lower +7500 | Top-10 +650 | Top-20 +280

Unlike Rodgers, Lower is rested having last played three weeks ago at Pebble Beach where he finished T62.  Obviously not a great result, but that was a Signature Event with a tougher field.

But these types of plays are all about potential and Lower has plenty of that.  In fact, in his last seven starts, he has three Top-5 finishes, in fields similar to this including The American Express this season, plus the Bermuda Championship and World Wide Technology Championship both in the Fall Series.  Those are very strong results and point to the likelihood of a win coming sooner rather than later.

Lower also has played in this event in two of the three editions, making the cut both years.  His T64 finish in 2022 wasn’t that great, but a T3 last year has me licking my chops to throw a few bucks on him again this year.

See you next week for the Cognizant Open!

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