PGA Tour Championship Predictions and Betting Odds | FedEx Cup August 25-28
Tour Championship Betting Preview
Someone is leaving Atlanta with an $18 million check on Sunday afternoon. Scottie Scheffler enters this week’s Tour Championship with a two-shot lead thanks to his position in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Will he be able to hold the top spot? Join WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang as we break down this week’s Tour Championship field from East Lake Golf Club.
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| 2022 Tour Championship | FedEx Cup Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | August 25-28, 2022 |
| Where: | East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta |
| Defending Champ: | Patrick Cantlay |
| Current Favorite(s): | Scottie Scheffler +225 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
BMW Championship Recap
History seems to be repeating itself as Patrick Cantlay, for the second-straight year, won the BMW Championship. Cantlay was No. 2 in the field in both Strokes Gained off the tee and Strokes Gained tee-to-green while also ranking No. 8 in Strokes Gained on approach.
More importantly, Cantlay was once again on our top-10 Total Strokes Gained chart as he was No. 10 over the last six months heading into last week’s the tournament. That is now 21 of 33 events in 2022 (minus the three alternate field events) that have seen the winner rank inside the top-10 over the last six months, a whopping 63% of tournament winners. With three other winners coming in at No. 11 or No. 12, that makes 24-of-33 (73%) of tournament winners inside the top-12 in 2022.
With only 30 players in the field this week, and of course the starting strokes in play, it’s more certain than ever than we see another top-10 player come out on top this week…
Tour Championship Odds Board
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds w/ starting strokes)
[#4] Rory McIlroy (-4) +2.65 (+1200) Bet365
[#1] Scottie Scheffler (-10) +2.52 (+250) BetMGM
[#2] Cam Smith (-4) +2.28 (+2800) DK
[#5] Xander Schauffele (-6) +2.14 (+800) FD
[#14] Tony Finau (-4) +2.07 (+2200) DK
[#10] Matt Fitzpatrick (-3) +2.03 (+4000) Bet365/BetMGM
[#3] Patrick Cantlay (-8) +1.98 (+430) FD
[#9] Will Zalatoris (-7) +1.94 (+1200) BetMGM
[#6] Jon Rahm (-3) +1.88 (+1600) Everywhere
[#12] Sam Burns (-5) +1.82 (+2200) Bet365/DK
Notables
[#7] Justin Thomas (-3) +1.76 (+2800) BetMGM
[#17] Cameron Young (-3) +1.53 (+6000) DK
[#19] Sungjae Im (-4) +1.46 (+3000) Bet365/DK
**Will Zalatoris was forced to withdraw because of a back injury on Tuesday.
The Tour Championship Course & Field
The PGA Tour’s final stop is once again at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta as the FedEx Cup Playoffs and PGA Tour season come to a close this week.
First thing to know is you can wager outrights both with starting strokes and without at most books, so obviously make sure you know which you are wagering on, although you should be able to tell by the numbers being offered. Of course, it will be easier to know where you stand if you wager using starting strokes as the leaderboard being shown on TV and on any website will be based on their scores including starting strokes. You will have to do some math to see where you really stand if you are betting without them.
East Lake is a stock par-70 with only two par 5s. The course plays a little over 7,300 yards with greens averaging just north of 6,000 square feet which is about average for all Tour stops. The track requires good positioning off the tee and a strong approach to be able to get at some of the pins, and with all the elite ball-strikers on Tour teeing it up this week, putting is likely to make the difference. The course is wall-to-wall Bermuda grass which does lead to some unpredictable lies in the rough, putting a little more emphasis on hitting the fairway.
Weather looks typical for Atlanta: Hot and humid with a chance of thunderstorms pretty much every day. Winds, however, don’t look to be any sort of factor.
Fun Fact: Only two players in the field haven’t won this year – Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala – who will likely be battling it out to determine Rookie of the Year.
Nick’s Tour Championship Betting Favorites
From Nick Borrman: I’ll dabble a little in both markets this week as you can get some longer numbers on guys that might “win” without the starting strokes. Keep in mind though, this is the only tournament in which taking an outright play could technically finish as a tie because there is no playoff for whomever finishes with the lowest 72-hole score, except of course, if that score was good enough to tie with starting strokes.
Xander Schauffele +800 (FanDuel) | Top-5 +120 (Bet365)
Xander played great again last week and had another chance to win but ultimately settled T3. Since the Zurich Classic partner event, which he won with Patrick Cantlay, Xander has been nearly unflappable with his lone poor start coming in the first playoff event finishing T57 at the Fedex St Jude. Otherwise, he has finished no worse than T18 in his nine other starts with two other wins at the Travelers and Scottish Open.
His history at East Lake though is no joke. His worst finish in five career starts is a T7. He won the event in 2017, right before the addition of the starting strokes so he didn’t end up winning the FedEx Cup and he also “won” the event in 2020 without starting strokes as he posted the lowest 72-hole score but did not win the FedexCup.
Jon Rahm +1000 Without Starting Strokes (Bet365) | Top-5 +170 (DK)
Rahm would have cashed this bet last year finishing with a 72-hole score of 14-under par to finish one shot back of Cantlay. While admittedly he has struggled for much of this year, at least in terms of elite play with just one win on the season, he showed that he is more than capable last week at the BMW finishing T8 while posting ten birdies and zero bogeys over the weekend.
That followed a T5 at the Fedex St Jude suggesting he is just starting to play his best golf of the year. Despite the “struggles”, Rahm is the best driver of the ball ranking No. 1 Strokes Gained off the tee this season and No. 2 in greens in regulation. If he simply makes putts, he will win.
Tour Championship Bet Bet
Xander Schauffele +185 over Scottie Scheffler: This bet obviously incorporates starting strokes with Xander beginning four strokes behind, but Xander is clearly playing well enough to overcome that.
For Scheffler, last week was his first top-10 finish since the US Open which included two missed cuts. He has been hitting the ball well but struggling on the greens as he has gained strokes putting in just three of this last ten tournaments while Xander has gained in nine of his last ten. There isn’t much between these two players tee-to-green at the moment, so I’ll throw a little cash on the fact that Xander is likely to make a few more putts along the way.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Tour Championship at East Lake? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Tour Championship Preview
Scottie Scheffler will begin this week’s Tour Championship with a two-shot lead with $18 million on the line at East Lake. Join Nick and Andy for Tee Time from Vegas as we break down the unique format of the final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
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