PGA Valero Texas Open 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Valero Texas Open 2025 Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Valero Texas Open teeing off from TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in San Antonio, TX! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Valero Texas Open starting on April 3rd!

Stay on top of the latest Golf updates direct from Las Vegas!

Valero Texas Open	Valero Texas Open Betting Notes
When:	April 3-6
Where:	TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in San Antonio, TX
Defending Champ:	Akshay Bhatia
Current Favorite:	Ludvig Aberg (+1200 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Valero Texas Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

Final prep before The Masters and while several of the big names are absent this week, there are still a few quality stars in the field including Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Keegan Bradley as five players ranked in the Top-15 OWGR.

While next week will certainly be on everyone’s mind, it does make it a little difficult to know who is here to win and who is here to just work out those final kinks.

The Oaks Course is a stock par 72 that plays long measuring over 7,400 yards and features tree-lined fairways.  Accuracy off the tee is important, and ball-strikers have thrived with Corey Conners, one of the best in the sport, twice a winner here. 

In fact, if we look closer at the most recent winners, it highlights the importance of ball-striking even more as four of the last six winners ranked #1 in SG Approach for the week. 

Last year, players averaged less than half of fairways hit and just barely more than ten greens in regulation which both ranked inside the Top-5 most difficult to do so of all courses in 2024.

Like last week, we will see a large bucket of approach shots in the 175+ yard range including several over 225 yards thanks to some long par 5s and par 3s. Though, there will be a few more wedges with five par 4s coming in at 410 yards or less. 

Unlike last week though, there will be much more of a penalty for missing the short grass as the rough will push 2.5” inches while native grass areas will be allowed to reach as long as 6” inches. By comparison, last week the rough was almost non-existent at 1.5” inches. 

With a minimum of at least 12 rounds played here, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, Charley Hoffman and Denny McCarthy lead the way in Total Strokes Gained at TPC San Antonio, all posting wins or runner-up finishes.

Interesting note for the live bettors out there, over the last four years at this event, the winner has been no further back than 5th place after the 1^st round, so keep that in mind if looking for an outright winner heading into the weekend.

With the weather this week, relatively calm skies are on tap for Thursday, before kicking up to Texas’ standards of 10-20 mph for the remaining three rounds. 

Thunderstorms could pose a problem on Friday and Saturday while temperatures will be quite the roller coaster. The opening two rounds should reach 90 degrees while Saturday’s high is forecasted at 79 before dropping down to 68 on Sunday.

Valero Texas Open Predictions

Winner: Corey Conners +1600 | Top-10 +210 | Top-20 +100

This should come as no surprise as Conners has won twice at this venue, which remain his only PGA Tour wins in his career.  Overall, he is a perfect 6-for-6 in cuts made and the all-time leader in Total SG at TPC San Antonio (minimum of at least 12 rounds).

Aside from his ridiculous course history, Conners has been red-hot with three straight Top-10 finishes including:

3^rd Arnold Palmer Invitational
T6 THE PLAYERS Championship
T8 Valspar Championship

As per usual, his irons and driver have been consistently gaining strokes with his accuracy, but his putter and short game have come alive, gaining strokes in both categories in four straight starts. 

Going back to last year’s Valero Texas Open, Conners had only down that on a total of five other occasions. Ride the wave.

Winner: Bud Cauley +5000 | Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +220

Probably not that surprising of a pick if you have paid attention the last few weeks. Cauley is coming off another strong performance last week finishing T4 at the Valspar Championship which followed his extremely close THE PLAYERS Championship run where he ultimately finished T6.

He was strong throughout the bag in those two events though his approach and putter spiked which will likely have to continue to make some noise again this week.

Cauley is 5-for-6 in cuts made this season and going back to the start of the fall season, he is 9-for-11, so depending on the price offered, that may be another good market to play Cauley this week. In now just a year since his return to the PGA Tour after missing nearly 3 ½ years, his consistency has returned, and his best play is happening now. 

When it comes to this event, in six starts at this event, Cauley does have two MCs, but he also has a T10 and a T18.

See you next week for the Masters Tournament!

$15 FREE for PREMIUM GOLF PICKS – CLAIM BELOW

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!