Phoenix Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds February 8-11

Phoenix Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Phoenix Open teeing off from TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Phoenix Open starting February 8th!

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Phoenix Open	Phoenix Open Betting Notes
When:	February 8-11
Where:	TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+500 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Phoenix Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Easily the most fun tournament of the year, the WM Phoenix Open and its rowdy crowd, made up of plenty of ASU students just looking to party, is the site this week as the Tour departs California for Arizona.

Also adding to the fun of this event is that the final round finishes up just before the Super Bowl kicks off, so you will find several unique cross-sport parlay options between this event and the Super Bowl so make sure to peruse your sportsbook offerings this week.

Last year this event was given Signature status, and while that’s not the case this year, the field is still very solid including world #1 Scottie Scheffler as he goes for the rare three-peat on Tour.

Xander Schauffele withdrew on Monday, but Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Jordan Spieth highlight several other big names in the field with a total of five of the Top-10 players in the world teeing it up at Scottsdale.

Breaking the streak of the last few weeks, this tournament features just one course, without amateurs, and with fully measured ShotLink for every player, every day.

For us golf bettors, it’s a return to the sublime. However, the challenge will then be getting all 132 players around the course on Thursday and Friday in the daylight.

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TPC Scottsdale plays as a par-71 measuring a little over 7,200 yards and is a true dessert setup with beautiful green grass fairways and greens, and the rest, dessert.

There are very few trees around the course but there are plenty of water hazards, mainly on the back nine which features a great three-hole finishing stretch.Everyone knows the par-3 16th hole featuring its stadium atmosphere and beer guzzling visitors.

If you can make it through that test, the 17th is a drivable par-4 with a water hazard coming into play just to the left of the green, followed by the par-4 18th which demands a precise tee shot over a hazard and in between fairway bunkers on both sides.

The course is a fair test as winning scores have fallen between -14 and -19 each of the last ten years compared to some events we have seen this year eclipsing the -20 mark.

I always like to end with a note on the weather. It seems last week’s terrible weather will linger here as well, though it shouldn’t be nearly as bad and likely only affect the first two days before sunshine returns at some point on Saturday.

Temperatures will be seasonally uncool though only in the 50s before reaching a high in the low 60s on Sunday.

Phoenix Open Outright Winner: Byeong Hun (Ben) An +3300 (BetMGM

From Nick Borrman:

Ben An made a strong return to the PGA Tour last season after losing his card in 2022. He especially kicked it into high gear in late summer finishing T3 at the Scottish Open and a T2 at the Wyndham Championship with a T23 at The Open sandwiched in between.

Oddly though, he took the entire fall season off from competition. After the BMW Championship, his next start on any Tour came in Hawaii at The Sentry where he finished solo 4th, then followed that up with a T2 at the Sony Open.

He wasn’t as strong last week at Pebble finishing T31, losing strokes Off the Tee which snapped a streak of 17th straight starts gaining strokes off the tee.

I’m banking on that being just an anomaly as the guy absolutely bombs it with his driver and this course has been known to reward long hitters with past champions including Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland and Phil Mickelson.

In addition to bombing it, An is riding a hot putter as well, as he has gained strokes putting in eight of hist last nine starts. He is the motto: “Drive for show AND Putt for dough.”

Finally, An has played this event five times, making the cut in all five, which four finishes of T23 or better including a solo 6th and a T9.

Phoenix Open Top-20 Finish: J.T. Poston +145 (Bet365)

Back to the well on Postman, which until it doesn’t cash, I’ll keep riding.

Poston missed the cut here last year, but had solid finishes of T23 and T11 in the previous two seasons and has made the cut in four of five starts overall. But as we have talked about before, this is not the same Poston as in year’s past.

J.T. has been fantastic as he has finished in the Top-25 in 11 of his last 13 starts dating back to the John Deere Classic in July.

He slogged through Pebble Beach last week finishing exactly T20 and played in each of the first three events of 2024 finishing T5, 6th and T11. So, he is a perfect 4-for-4 with Top-20 finishes this season.

Poston’s weakness is with his driver as he’s not long, nor super accurate for that matter, but his approach game is strong, gaining strokes in 11 of his last 12 starts and his putting is lights out, gaining strokes in 13 straight starts where he ranks #1 in this field in SG Putting over the last six months. Ride the hot hand with the J.T. again this week.

See you next week for The Genesis Invitational!

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