QBE Shootout Prediction and Betting Odds | PGA Tour Dec 9-11

QBE Shootout Betting Preview

The PGA Tour will conclude its calendar year with the QBE Shootout in Naples, Florida. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board and dives into some betting angles for this unique team event, which also features a special appearance by some of the LPGA’s best.

QBE Shootout	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	December 9-11, 2022
Where:	Tiburon Golf Club Gold Course in Naples, Florida
Defending Champ(s):	Kevin Na and Jason Kokrak (Not Competing This Year)
Current Favorite(s):	Jason Day and Billy Horschel +500 at DraftKings
TV:	Golf Channel on Friday; NBC Saturday and Sunday

Hero World Challenge Recap

It wasn’t an official PGA Tour event with only a limited field of 20 players, but Viktor Hovland pulled off the win in the Bahamas as the third repeat winner this season. He led by three going into the final round and never looked to be in danger of defending his Hero World Challenge title.

Oddly though, with a 50-percent chance in pure numbers alone, Hovland did not rank in the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained coming into the tournament.

This week is another unofficial event, and the last event of the calendar year before the season kicks off in full earnest in Hawaii for the Tournament of Champions just after the New Year.

QBE Shootout Odds Board

Jason Day & Billy Horschel +500 | MGM
Tom Hoge & Sahith Theegala +600 | DK
Matt Kuchar & Harris English +700 | MGM
Brian Harman & Sepp Straka +700 | DK, MGM
Max Homa & Kevin Kisner +700 | B365, DK, FD & MGM

*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)

The QBE Shootout Course & Field

Twelve teams of two play 54 holes over three days (Friday thru Sunday), with a pair of LPGA players in the mix as well. No. 2-ranked Nelly Korda and No. 7-ranked Lexi Thompson are in the field, teaming up with Denny McCarthy and Maverick McNealy, respectively.

To top it off, a Champions Tour representative is here as well with Steve Stricker joining forces with the long-hitting Rookie of the Year, Cameron Young.

This event has “Shootout” in its name, so expect nothing less this week. Round 1 is a standard scramble so expect to see most scores sub-60. Round 2 reverts to a modified alternate shot vs a true alternate shot. That is, both players will hit their drives and then alternate from the drive of their choosing. Lastly, the final round is your standard better ball with the lower score of the two players being recorded.

Tiburon Golf Club’s Gold Course is a stock par 72 that measures over 7,300 yards, but in a team event, overall distance is rarely a factor, or an advantage. It’s all about holing putts.

Team chemistry is also an advantage as Kuchar and English have proven with three wins and two runner-ups here. The only other team that has played together in this event before is Max Homa and Kevin Kisner, who debuted with a T5 last year. Corey Conners and KH Lee were partnered together for the International Team in this past President’s Cup.

Nick’s QBE Shootout Betting Favorites

Outright Winner: Steve Stricker & Cameron Young +1200 (DK, FD and MGM)
This is one of the most interesting pairings in this field. On one hand, you have one of the longest hitters on Tour in Cameron Young who is poised to have a big year this season. He nabbed Rookie of the Year honors after five runner-up finishes, including The Open Championship, as well as two other third-place finishes including another major at the PGA Championship.

Because of Young’s distance, he ranked No. 3 in Strokes Gained off the tee which led to ranking No. 6 in birdie average, which obviously plays well at this event.

Pair that with Stricker, who is as consistent and solid as they come from tee-to-green and is off back-to-back wins on the Champions Tour, proving he’s still got game, just on shorter courses. Take away his weakness in distance with Cameron Young as your teammate, and this just seems like a fantastic pairing.

H2H Matchup: Max Homa & Kevin Kisner (-115) over Corey Conners and KH Lee
It’s not match play like the President’s Cup, but Corey Conners struggled mightily in the partners event, going 0-3 as a team while then also losing his singles match to make it an unperfect 0-4 on the week. KH Lee had better luck going 2-1 overall including 1-1 in partners. But one must wonder about this pairing.

Corey Conners is one of the best tee-to-green ball strikers on Tour as he ranked No. 2 in greens in regulation last year but was awful on the greens, ranking well outside the top-100 in Strokes Gained putting.

KH Lee was better with the flatstick, ranking No. 70 in putting, but doesn’t rank particularly high in anything falling outside the top-50 in every major category. I can’t imagine these two players have a lot to talk about either, which as I already mentioned, chemistry is important.

Homa and Kisner debuted together last year and finished T5 and while Kisner hasn’t had a particularly good season, he excels in the different events like partners and match play. Homa is on the rise and is coming off his best season on Tour with two wins and 15 top-25 finishes where he finished No. 13 in the final FedexCup standings.

The pairing didn’t get off to the best start last year as only two teams posted higher than their 61, yet they climbed the leaderboard over the following two days to finish T5. If they get off to a better start this year, there is no doubt they will be in contention on Sunday.

See you after the Holidays for the Sentry Tournament of Champions!

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Golf Betting Tips

As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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