Sanderson Farms Championship Predictions and Odds | Sept 29 – Oct 2
Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview
Sam Burns was able to use last year’s win at the Sanderson Farms Championship as the launch point for two more PGA Tour wins and a Presidents Cup berth. Will this year’s tournament be able to propel another young player toward the same path? WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board and dives into some head-to-head matchups for this week’s event in Jackson, Mississippi.
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| 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | September 29 – October 2, 2022 |
| Where: | Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi |
| Defending Champ: | Sam Burns |
| Current Favorite(s): | Sam Burns +1100 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
2022 Presidents Cup Recap
Congratulations to Team USA for winning yet another President’s Cup. They jumped out to an early 4-1 lead on Thursday and never looked back.
We fell just short of cashing both Justin Thomas +900 as the top scorer and Sungjae Im +600 as the top International thanks to one match on Sunday as Si Woo Kim defeated JT. Still, it was a profitable week which makes it two winning weeks from two so far this PGA Tour season.
Sanderson Farms Championship Odds Board
In the first event of the season, we cashed Max Homa +1600 at the Fortinet to continue the long trend of winners on the PGA Tour that entered the tournament in the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained in the field. Homa’s win was the 23rd out of 35 tournaments (63%) in 2022 that fit that criteria. As we move forward to the second tournament of the season, why start anywhere else?…
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months:
[#53] JT Poston +1.40 (+2700) FD
[#12] Sam Burns +1.37 (+1100) DK
[#88] Taylor Montgomery +1.27 (+3000) DK
[#79] Denny McCarthy +1.15 (+2900) FD
[#48] Keegan Bradley +1.04 (+4000) B365 | MGM
[#68] Scott Stallings +0.89 (+3000) DK
[#55] Russell Henley +0.84 (+2500) MGM
[#97] Emiliano Grillo +0.84 (+4000) DK
[#40] Seamus Power +0.75 (+6000) B365
[#119] Brendon Todd +0.71 (+8000) DK
Notables
[#69] Davis Riley +0.69 (+4000) B365 | DK | PB | MGM
[#52] Sahith Theegala +0.61 (+2000) B365 | DK | PB (+1.19 L3 Months)
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)
The Sanderson Farms Championship Course & Field
The Country Club of Jackson tops out at just under 7,500 yards, which on paper, would seem to favor the longer hitters. While smashing it off the tee is always an advantage, history of this event has shown that both ends of that spectrum can win here with Ryan Armour and Cameron Champ winning in back-to-back years. Most people know Champ as the longest hitter on Tour while Armour checked in as the eighth-shortest hitter.
The tournament sets up to be a shootout with perfect weather on tap and the exact same course as the competitors saw last year with no changes made. The stock par-72 features Bermuda greens and short rough by Tour standards at just 2.5 inches. Burns won last year setting the tournament record at -22 and there is no reason to think that number can’t be eclipsed this year.
Favorites have been winning at a very high clip with seven of the last eight coming in at under 20-1 odds, but this week seems more likely than ever to see that trend come to an end as the only possible candidate to fit that mold this week is favorite Sam Burns.
Nick’s Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Favorites
No sense of wavering from the top-10 Strokes Gained crowd over the last six months, which has been correctly picking winners at a 63-percent clip this entire calendar year, so let’s start there.
Outright Winner: Taylor Montgomery +3000 (DraftKings)
If you don’t know his name, learn it. Montgomery is a rookie this year poised to make a big name for himself as so many rookies have been able to do on the Tour in recent seasons. The KFT graduate started off his season with a solo third at the Fortinet as he led the field in Strokes Gained Putting.
Although Montgomery didn’t register a win last season, he still finished seventh on the money list while only playing in 17 events compared to 21-24 events for every other player in the top-10. He did that by finishing inside the top-10 in seven of this final eight starts of the season, ranking first in scoring average and birdie average, while finishing second in Total Strokes Gained and third in putting.
This is another perfect field for him to rise to the top and put himself in contention on Sunday.
Top-20 Finish: Scott Stallings +170 (DraftKings)
Stallings had quite the end to last season, finishing in the top-13 in five of his final six starts to qualify for the Tour Championship where he ended with a disappointing 29th. That puts him at No. 4 in Total Strokes Gained over the last three months in this field at +1.40 per round.
Stallings did miss the cut here last season but finished T6 two years ago and overall, has made the cut in five of his seven appearances.
Featured Sanderson Farms Championship Matchup: Sahith Theegala (+135) over Sam Burns
Burns is without a doubt the most talented player in this field, but coming off an emotional and draining President’s Cup, you have to wonder how fresh he will be coming in. Of course, he will be motivated to defend his title from last year.
However, let’s not forget that Theegala was the 54-hole leader here last year, he just didn’t have the experience to close the door. Now with a couple more close calls under his belt, it’s only a matter of when. Regardless of if he wins or not, I think he will have a good enough week to be near the top of the leaderboard while I’m just not sure what to expect from Burns. The price is too good to pass up here.
See you next week for the Shriners Children’s Open!
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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