Sanderson Farms Championship Predictions, Free Picks and Odds October 5-8

Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Sanderson Farms Championship teeing off from the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Sanderson Farms Championship starting October 5!

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Sanderson Farms Championship	Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Notes
When:	October 5-8
Where:	Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi
Defending Champ:	Mackenzie Hughes
Current Favorite:	Ludvig Aberg (+1100 at DraftKings)
TV:	Peacock

Sanderson Farms Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Sanderson Farms Championship Betting Preview

The story of this fall season is the end of the wrap-around PGA Tour season. Points earned from now through the end of the year are added onto points that were earned after the end of the Fedex Cup Playoffs to determine who keeps their Tour card for next season.

While the Top-70 made this year’s playoffs, the Top-125 will keep their status for next season and the fall season is full of guys that are fighting for those spots.

That is just a long-winded way of saying, this week, like many of the fall tournaments, does not have a very deep field.

In fact, there are only two players ranked inside the Top-50 in the OGWR this week, Emiliano Grill (#35) and Tom Hoge (#50), so let this be a week to take some longshot chances.

In fact, perhaps look into protentional first-time TOUR winners as six of the last nine Sanderson Farms champions have been first-time winners.

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This week’s favorite is also the only player that competed in last week’s Ryder Cup, Ludvig Aberg, so it will be interesting to see how he performs in such a short turnaround considering the travel involved from Rome to the U.S. after all that partying of course.

While I have big expectations for Aberg this season and into the future, there seems to be more reasons that to lay off him this week than to back him, and that’s without even considering his short 12-1 price.

The course is a par 72 that measures over 7,400 yards so length is a big advantage to consider this week. Hughes ranked outside the Top-50 Off the Tee last season when he won, but he was the only player in the Top-5 to do so.

Prior to that, Sam Burns, Sergio Garcia and especially Cameron Champ all backup that theory. However, the four par 5s typically play as one of the toughest set of par 5s on Tour.

Weather looks dry all four days, but winds look likely to play a factor on Friday and Saturday. It may be worth waiting until tee times are announced and weather conditions are solidified to see if there may be a tee time draw advantage to get out early on Friday, ahead of potential wind.

Sanderson Farms Championship Outright Winner: Eric Cole +2000 (Everywhere)

From Nick Borrman:

He was in contention at the Fortinet Championship three weeks ago, and for much of the same reasons, I’m going back to the well, so I’ll echo the same thoughts.

Cole is the likely the 2022-23 PGA Tour rookie of the year and although he has yet to taste victory, it’s only a matter of time before he does. Cole made ten straight cuts to finish the season making it all the way to the BMW Championship.

Cole has been great with his irons and putting. Since the Houston Open last November, Cole has lost strokes on Approach just three times in 28 starts with his worst performance losing just -0.21 strokes.

He also gained strokes in eight of his last 11 starts, while ranking 12th in SG Putting on the season and 3rd in putting average per green in regulation.

In this field, you can consider him elite as he ranks 1st in Total SG over the last 12 months and 3rd over the last six months and he fits the bill as a potential first-time winner.

Sanderson Farms Championship Finish Position: Lee Hodges Top-10 +400 | Top-20 +190

Hodges is only a couple months removed from his first TOUR win as he won the 3M Open back at the end of July. That propelled him to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs where he made it to the second event, the BMW Championship, ultimately finishing T45. That was in an elite field, of course, but in this very weak field, no reason to think he won’t contend.

Going back just a little further, Hodges has two T12 finishes at the Memorial Tournament and at the Scottish Open along with a T25 at the RBC Canadian Open.

Though not fully consistent week-to-week with his skillsets, last season proved that Hodges can get hot with any facet of his game. He gained strokes on Approach in 12 of his final 17 starts, 10 of his final 13 Off the Tee, and six of his last nine with Putting/Around the Green combined.

Finally, Hodges has played in this event each of the last two years finishing T45 and T30 but with impressive Tee to Green numbers. Last year he gained +1.39 strokes per round between Approach and Off the Tee combined but lost -0.80 Around the Green. Two years ago, he gained +0.89 in that same department, but lost -0.73 Putting.

If he can simply not lose strokes with his Putting/Around the Green as he has done at a 67% clip since the beginning of June, I have full confidence his Tee to Green numbers will have him in the mix on Sunday.

See you next week for the Shriners Children’s Open!

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