Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks and Odds Jan 6-9
Tournament of Champions Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions from the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Sentry Tournament of Champions | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 6-9 |
| Where: | Plantation Course at Kapalua (Par 73 – 7,596 yards) |
| Defending Champ: | Harris English |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+750 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Thursday-Saturday Golf Channel; Sunday NBC followed by Golf Channel |
Tournament of Champions Odds Board
Here is the current top-10 in this week’s Tournament of Champions field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their current betting odds from DraftKings:
Patrick Cantlay +2.43 (+1400)
Jon Rahm +2.06 (+750)
Cameron Smith +2.03 (+2200)
Sam Burns +1.88 (+1800)
Justin Thomas +1.86 (+800)
Bryson DeChambeau +1.85 (+1200)
Kevin Na +1.78 (+6000)
Daniel Berger +1.77 (+2200)
Viktor Hovland +1.65 (+1200)
Sungjae Im +1.55 (+2200)
The Course
From Nick Borrman: Golf is back! The toughest field to qualify for returns in one of the most beautiful settings on Tour. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour calendar thanks to just three par 3s, but a low winning score into the mid 20-under range is more than feasible as Kapalua boasts very wide fairways and some of the biggest greens on Tour.
The wind is generally the only defense to the course and when it’s not a major factor, like last year, the field averaged both the highest percentage of fairways and GIRs of all 51 courses.
It’s also worth noting that this will be the third edition of the tournament since it was renovated. Over 100 acres of fairways were stripped for a new strain of Bermuda to bring back the design element of Kapalua that had gone away over recent years.
Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore were the designers of the course and Coore was quoted last year saying, “The idea at Kapalua always was to land a shot 60 yards short of a green and let it roll on. In recent years, a ball landing 20 yards short of a green would just stop. It will play differently this year. Players will be able to use sideslopes to feed shots to a flag. And drives will roll out farther, sometimes closer to trouble.”
The Tournament of Champions Field
This is always the event where the new PGA Tour season really gets underway as many of the big-name players don’t tee it up very often in the fall series. Of course, this tournament is unique in many ways with only previous year winners invited to the no-cut event and because of that, we always see a very strong field.
Last year was the first (and only) time that non-winners were invited to the event as the 2020 season was shortened due to COVID-19. Thus, in addition to winners, anyone that qualified for the Tour Championship’s 30-man field were also invited to the tee it up. However, this year we are back to winners only in Hawaii.
There are a few highly ranked players that are notably absent this week. World #3 Dustin Johnson did not win on Tour in 2021 with his last win coming in November 2020. Rory McIlroy (OWGR #9) is the only winner from last year that opted to not make the trip this year.
Then there is #11 Louis Oosthuizen who has still yet to win on American soil with his only PGA Tour win coming at the Open Championship. The last Top-20 player missing from the field is Scottie Scheffler, currently ranked #13 in the world, who was part of the class including Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, but has not yet tasted victory.
Tournament of Champions Betting Trends
Absent those players, this field is clearly very strong and there are certainly a few trends to be aware of when looking to find an outright winner this week. First, since the event moved to Kapalua in 1999, there have only been three first-time winners with the last being Daniel Chopra in 2008.
While the list of those players aren’t probably names you would pick out this week, it does include Cameron Davis and Talor Gooch who were two of the hottest players to end last year.
Another very important trend that is not to be ignored is that this event has been dominated by Americans, winning each of the last 11 years beginning in 2011. That would throw a few household names out the window including World #1 Jon Rahm, along with Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland and Abraham Ancer.
Lastly, there has not been a repeat winner since Geoff Ogilvy in 2009-2010 which would put a big X right through Harris English this week.
Keeping those points in mind, let’s take a look at a couple players who fit that mold that I believe offer some decent value at this week’s Tournament of Champions:
Nick’s Players to Watch
Jordan Spieth: He is top of my list in terms of value as nearly a quarter of this field is listed under 20-1. Spieth comes in priced at 22-1. Spieth has quite a history in this event as well. In four previous starts, Spieth’s worst finish was 9th, to go along with a win, a runner-up and a T-3. Spieth’s struggles over recent years have kept him away from Kapalua as this is his first trip in four years, but there is little doubt his game turned a corner in 2021.
Spieth ranks #6 on Tour over the last 12 months in Total Strokes Gained, averaging +1.7 per round. His weakness has always been off the tee, but with very little to worry about this week in terms of hitting fairways, that has been a big reason we have seen him succeed here. At Kapalua, he has averaged +2.3 Total Strokes Gained per round which ranks 2nd in this field to only defending champion Harris English.
Kevin Na: He is not a long hitter, which you don’t need to be at Kapalua as everything rolls out, nor is he a particularly good iron player where he ranked outside the Top-100 in Strokes Gained Approach. But he was much improved in that category over the last six months at +0.43 per round. However, Na has the best short game on Tour, ranked #1 last season and is a very good putter, ranking #10 on Tour over the last six months and #3 in this field, averaging +0.67 per round.
While you could argue his short game may not matter that much considering everyone hits greens at Kapalua, the opposite would be true for his putting as the field will then be putting more than normal this week. Regardless, for a guy that ranks #7 on Tour in Total Strokes Gained over the last six month, this is far too steep of a price not to take a shot on him.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee: K.H. Lee is certainly not a household name (yet), but he has been playing like better than ever in his most recent starts. He has already proven himself a winner as he qualified for this event, winning the AT&T Byron Nelson back in May, but over his last five starts, he has been shining. He missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms in October, but finished inside the Top-25 in his other four starts including a T12 at the BMW Championship, T14 at Shriners, T25 at the CJ Cup and a T18 at the Zozo. Three of those four events were no-cut events, guaranteed to play four rounds just like this week, so even with one slow round he can still climb the leaderboard by Sunday.
Andy’s Players to Watch
From Andy Lang: Sam Burns has burst onto the scene as a force to be reckoned with. He’s 25 years old and looks to be maturing in his game as evident by finishing 7th or better in 5 out of his last 6 tournaments. He is powerful off the tee and was 9th in putting last season which is a good recipe for success on tour.
Viktor Holland: I guess I’m a sucker for golfers who have won the last two tournaments they’ve played in. His demeanor and command over his game is impressive and he’s going to be finishing in the top 10 a lot this year. His 31st finish last year in this tournament may give us a little value if the books knock him down the rankings for that. He’s way better than that finish.
Andy’s Players to Fade
Jordan Spieth: One of my favorite betting angles of all time is fading golfers who have just had their first child, and Spieth just had his first in the fall. Their practice schedule gets disrupted, family life gets different…their entire life changes. They had their baby, and Spieth played in the Hero World Challenge a few weeks later and finished dead last…a mere 24 shots off the lead. I’ll fade him for the first part of the year without question.
Jon Rahm: Is he the best golfer on the planet? Yes. Do I want to bet against him? No. Will the books put him as such a high favorite in head to heads that I should just walk away? Absolutely. I get it, he’s the best right now, but the books know that as well. He’s going to be a massive favorite in every head to head matchup at this point, and we need to resist the urge to lay the big juicy on him. He’s not going to win all his head to heads, and laying huge juice in the golf head to head matchups is a losing proposition long term.
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Tee Time from Vegas | Tournament of Champions Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, professional golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang preview the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions from the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday at 10am ET / 7am PT as we preview the upcoming PGA tournament.
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