Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions and Odds Jan 13-16
Sony Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer his thoughts on this week’s Sony Open from the Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Sony Open in Hawaii | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 13-16 |
| Where: | Waiʻalae Country Club (Par 72 – 7,044 yards) |
| Defending Champ: | Kevin Na |
| Current Favorite: | Cameron Smith +800 |
| TV: | Golf Channel and ESPN+ |
Sony Open Odds Board
Here is the current top-10 in this week’s Sony Open field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their current betting odds from DraftKings:
Cameron Smith +2.29 (+800)
Kevin Na +1.73 (+2500)
Sungjae Im +1.56 (+1600)
Webb Simpson +1.49 (+1200)
Talor Gooch +1.42 (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama +1.24 (+1800)
Corey Conners +1.21 (+1800)
Seamus Power +1.17 (+4000)
Maverick McNealy +1.16 (+5000)
Russell Henley +0.99 (+2200)
The Course -Waialae Country Club
From Nick Borrman: The PGA Tour is staying in Hawaii again this week, but Waialae CC is a much different track than Kapalua. Waialae is flat with a total course elevation change of just 10 feet. Even though the course is along the Hawaiian coast, there is actual minimal water that comes into play. 83 bunkers on the course offer up the most challenge but like Kapalua, the main defense will always be the wind. If the wind is up, scores are up, but when the wind is not existent, scores will be low. The wind is forecasted to be light all week. Also worth nothing, but probably irrelevant from a betting standpoint, is that the front nine and back nines are flipped for the tournament, allowing for the 550 yard par-5 dogleg left to serve as the finishing hole.
The Sony Open Field
While last week saw the 2nd smallest field of the year, behind only the Tour Championship, this week we see a standard field of 144 with the cut down to the lowest 65 (and ties) for the weekend. Even though we have more players this week, the field is much weaker in terms of World Golf Rankings with only seven of the Top-25 players in the world teeing it up. Last week’s winner, Cameron Smith, is the headliner along with Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Abraham Ancer, Jason Kokrak, Billy Horschel and The Tour’s ironman, Sungjae Im. 23 players from last week’s field of 38 are staying and playing this week at the Sony Open.
Sony Open Betting Trends
Seven of the last eight winners at the Sony Open played the week before at Kapalua. In some wild irony, the exception to that is none other than last week’s winner Cameron Smith. Going back even further, Since the Tournament of Champions moved to Kapalua in 1999, 16 of the 23 winners of the Sony Open also played Kapalua the week prior. Knowing that, pay close attention to the 23 of 38 players from Kapalua last week that are teeing it up again at Waialae.
Also, first-timers are usually worth discussing every week as unlikely winners and this week is no exception. Since Waialae CC joined the PGA Tour tournament schedule back in 1965, only one first-timer has earned victory and that was Russell Henley in 2013.
Nick’s Players to Watch
Charles Howell III +5000 | +450 Top-10: Let’s start with the longest odds first. Howell has never won here, but he is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader thanks to a perfect 20 for 20 record in cuts made that includes finishing in the Top-10 in half of his starts. Howell has always been a guy that plays well at certain venues every single year then you don’t hear much from him for several weeks or months. That means he’s not a guy that you really worry too much about his results or statistics over the last three or six months but I’ll mention it anyway as it’s still respectable. Howell ranks 18th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months at +0.73. Howell did not tee it up last week at Kapalua, however, perhaps giving one reason to leave him off your outright list this week and instead, look to play him another way.
Marc Leishman +1600 | +190 Top-10: Leishman’s track record doesn’t go back as long as Howell’s but it’s still perfect nonetheless. He is 12 for 12 in cuts made at Waialae with seven Top 20s including four Top 10s. Leishman ranks slightly higher than Howell this week in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, sitting 12th in this field at +0.91. Unlike Howell, Leishman did play last week at Kapalua and finished with a solid T-10.
Webb Simpson +1200 | +160 Top-10: Simpson is yet another guy that has played all four days every time he has made the trip to Waialae. He is 11 for 11 in cuts made with an extremely consistent seven straight Top-20’s. His last three starts here are incredible, finishing T4, 3rd and T4. He also comes in hotter than either Howell or Leishman, ranking 4th in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, averaging +1.49 per round, and has finished in the Top-15 in each of his last two starts.
Andy’s Players to Fade Head to Head
Jason Kokrak – He’s a bomber, but that doesn’t matter if you can’t putt and his putting woes reared their ugly head again last week as he was -5.2 in putting en route to a 38th place finish in a tournament that had 38 participants. In the short start to the 21-22 season he’s 163rd in strokes gained tee to green, and 176th strokes gained around the green.
Brian Harman – Harman has been a disaster recently as his best finish in his last five tournaments is 54th, and he hasn’t faired well here the last three years finishing MC, 32, 56. The wind should be minimal this week which favors the long drivers, and he is anything but a long driver. He’s not in good form, and the elements don’t favor him this week.
Abraham Ancer – His short, but accurate game doesn’t work on courses like what we saw last week as he just can’t overpower a course like other guys. He’s 3rd in driving accuracy this season, but 164th in length, and 125th in greens in regulation and with good weather conditions, I look to see similar results from him this week as we did last week where he finished 35th out of 38 golfers. He’s missed the cut two times out of the four times he’s played here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a third MC.
Andy’s Players to Support Head to Head
Talor Gooch – He’s had his ups and downs the last couple years, but I feel like he started to get a bit more consistent the last half of the 20-21 season as he only missed two cuts between mid February and late August. He started off the 2022 season with six top 15 finishes in seven tourneys including a 15th last week.
Harris English – English’s final position wasn’t amazing last week, but his back looked fully healed, and that was what I was looking for. His first round wasn’t very good, but improved each of the next three rounds, and in round 3 he hit a bad drive out of bounds that cost him two shots, but he rebounded to shoot -6 for the day. I’d like to get a matchup with him vs Jason Kokrack or Abraham Ancer to pull the trigger on.
Matt Kuchar – We are starting to see Kuchar get to twilight of his career as a threat to win tournaments, and while he can have the occasional good finish I think we might get him a bit over valued this week as he won this tournament in 2019, but he missed the cut here the next two years.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
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Tee Time from Vegas | Sony Open Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, professional golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang preview the 2022 Sony Open from the Waiʻalae Country Club in Hawaii. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday at 10am ET / 7am PT as we preview the upcoming PGA tournament.
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