Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions, Picks and Odds January 12-15

Sony Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential long shots that could crack the Sony Open in Hawaii leaderboard and guys who may trip you up in your betting.

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Sony Open in Hawaii	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	January 12-15, 2023
Where:	Waialae Country Club in Hawaii
Defending Champ:	Hideki Matsuyama
Current Favorite:	Tom Kim (+1100 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel

Sony Open in Hawaii Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Tom Kim +1.92 (+1100)
Sungjae Im +1.66 (+1400)
Taylor Montgomery +1.65 (+1000)
Brian Harman +1.39 (+2000)
Tom Hoge +1.31 (+1800)
Andrew Putnam +1.23 (+5500)
Maverick McNealy +1.21 (+4000)
Kurt Kitayama +1.21 (+6000)
Emiliano Grillo +1.17 (+5000)
Jordan Spieth +1.16 (+1600)

Sony Open in Hawaii Course and Field

From Nick Borrman: The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week, just a short puddle jumper flight from one island to the other as players switch focus from Kapalua Plantation to Waialae CC (that is assuming we are talking about players that teed it up last week).

Waialae is a much different track than Kapalua. Waialae is flat with a total course elevation change of just 10 feet and it is short, playing as a par 70 maxing out at just over 7,000 yards. Even though the course is along the Hawaiian coast, there is actual minimal water that comes into play.

Eighty-three bunkers on the course offer up the most challenge but like Kapalua, the main defense will always be the wind. However, just like we saw last week, wind is not forecasted to be up so scoring should be low once again.

This is the first full field event of 2023 as 144 players will tee it up at Waialae which will be cut to 65 (and ties) after 36 holes. Even though there is more quantity this week compared to last week at Kapalua, in sheer number of players competing, the quality leaves something to be desired.

Only seven of the world’s Top 25 are in the field which is headlined by the young and exciting Tom Kim who has already won twice and still hasn’t even reached a full year on Tour, and unless you are a golf nut like I am, you will be hard pressed to recognize more than a dozen names in this week’s field.

Nick’s Sony Open in Hawaii Picks

I zeroed in on length last week which proved to be a very important metric for the eventual winner, Jon Rahm. This week screams accuracy and mid-to-short iron play:

Outright Winner
Sungjae Im +1400 (Bet365, FanDuel, DraftKings or PointsBet)

I mentioned why I wasn’t going with Tom Kim as an Outright play this week, so I’ll go to the next on the list. First, Sungjae played last week, check. 

Second, this is not his first start at Waialae as he has played in four previous editions, check. He did miss the cut last year and finished 56th in 2021, but he also finished Top-25 in his other two starts.

Im fits the mold of who should contend this week. He’s not the longest hitter on Tour, but very accurate as he ranked #27 in Driving Accuracy last season and #9 in Greens in Regulation.

Because of that, he ranked #9 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. When he does miss, his short game is excellent as he ranked #5 in Scrambling last year and #12 in SG Around the Green.

Top-20 Finish
Russell Henley +125 (Bet365 or FanDuel)

A horse for the course play with a guy proven to not only play well here, but on most tracks that are similar and require accuracy over power. I already mentioned Henley’s win here in 2013, but he also lost in a playoff to Matsuyama last year. Those results are part of five Top-20s in ten starts at Waialae.

You may be quick to forget that Henley just won in Mexico back in November as well, on another track similar to Waialae that is short and requires plodding your way around the course.

Last year Henley ranked #2 in SG Approach and #8 SG Tee to Green as he ranked #14 in Driving Accuracy and #7 in Greens in Regulation. I’ll take a plus price on him to be in contention on Sunday.

Nationality Props
Corey Conners Top Canadian +110 (DraftKings)

There are four other Canadians in the field aside from Conners: Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor and Michael Gligic.

Oddly, both Hughes and Svensson have already won this season, and both bucked the trend of being in the Top-10 Strokes Gained over the previous six months. But bucking those trends hasn’t proven to be a smart thing to do long-term.

Conners has historically been the more consistent player. He ranks #6 in Total Stokes Gained over the last 12 months and #16 over the last six months, both leading among this group.

Conners has also been great at this venue. He is a perfect 4-4 in cuts made and has finished in the Top-12 in each of his last three starts including a T3 in 2019 and a T11 last year, both when scoring was low.

Last year, Conners was #20 in Driving Accuracy and #2 in Greens in Regulation, both contributing to his #13 SG Tee to Green ranking.

Players to Avoid

From Andy Lang: Hideki Matsuyama – Finished 21st out of 39 players last week, 9 shots behind the leader. He has two top 10 finishes since last February.

He’s the defending champion, but coming into this tournament last year he had finished 13th the week before and he won the ZoZo in the fall. After that he finished 30th at the Farmers and 8th at the Waste Management so he was in much better form.

Over the last 11 months he’s below average in driving distance and accuracy and he’s only +0.14 strokes gained putting. That won’t get it done on any course, he’s the third highest betting favorite, no way I’m betting on Matsuyama.

Keegan Bradley – He was awful last week. Finished 18 shots behind the leader, and he really hasn’t been good in normal tournaments. He won the ZoZo and finished 5th at the Sanderson Farms, but before that had 5 finishes of 44th or worse.

The last 6 months he’s -0.15 putting, -0.20 around the green and even on approaches. His tee to green is 44th worst in this field, and this is all with a win at the ZoZo. He finished 12th here last year and is priced as a top 10 golfer this week, I’m out on Keegan Bradley

Andy’s DraftKings Darlings

Alex Smalley ($7800) – He’s been a bit inconsistent, but has shown upside finishing 10th at the Scottish Open, and 13th at the Wyndham last year, and then finished the fall season finishing 11th, 4th, and 5th at weak field events, and this is a weak field event. He’s +0.94 total strokes gained over the last six months and drives the ball far which should pay dividends.

Denny McCarthy ($7900) – His putting is not good at times, but he’s only missed one cut in the last 9 tournaments and at this tournament with a weaker field, he should be good enough to make the cut and give us weekend points. He made the cut here last year, that’s all I’m hoping for at this price.

Christian Bezuidenhout ($8100) – He finished 17th here last year, and he’s only missed two cuts on the PGA Tour since last February and those were at the Travelers and The PGA Championship, really good field. He’s under valued here and could have another top 20 finish this week.

Best Bet: Tom Kim over Jordan Spieth

Tom Kim is 3-0 head to head in the fall and one tournament in 2023 head to head against Jordan Spieth.  Over the last six months, Tom Kim is #1 in total strokes gained in this field, and #1 in strokes gained tee to green.

He ranks above Spieth in every main category in strokes gained, and last week he was fantastic as he finished 3 shots ahead of Spieth.

Spieth hasn’t played here in several years, and the last time he did he missed the cut in 2019.  I’ll ride the hot hand of Tom Kim over Spieth this week.

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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