Sony Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds January 11-14

Sony Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Sony Open teeing off from Plantation Course Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Sony Open starting January 11th!

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Sony Open	Sony Open Betting Notes
When:	January 11-14
Where:	Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii
Defending Champ:	Si Woo Kim
Current Favorite:	Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel

Sony Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Sony Open Betting Preview

The 2nd week of the Aloha Swing tees up this week at the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club which for several in the field, is only a quick puddle jumper flight from island to island.

Waialae is a much different track than Kapalua. Waialae is flat with a total course elevation change of just 10 feet and it is short, playing as a par 70 maxing out at just over 7,000 yards. Even though the course is along the Hawaiian coast, there is actual minimal water that comes into play.

The course features only two par 5s and is considered a second-shot course. More than 50% of iron shots come from under 150 yards so look for those players that rank high in the 100-125 and 125-150 yard ranges which you can find on the PGA Tour website.

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This is the first full field event of the season and appears to be one of the stronger fields we have seen at this event in a long time.

Having stayed and played in Hawaii the week prior is an important trend to watch as nine of the last 11 winners had played in The Sentry.

It makes sense, the best players tend to play in The Sentry and playing in back-to-back events after an irregular couple of months when it comes to tournament schedules certainly helps. As of Tuesday morning, 38 of last week’s field have committed to playing.

Wind is generally the only defense for the course as winning scores often push to 20-under par or lower. However, just like last week, winds are forecasted to be moderate at most and shouldn’t have a major impact on higher scoring.

Thus, expect scores to once again be low and look for those players than can shoot low numbers and that can roll the rock.

Sony Open Outright Winner: Russell Henley +2200 (Everywhere)

From Nick Borrman:

Henley isn’t getting the normal love you would expect to see from him here because he had a down week at The Sentry. But based on his longterm run and his history at this event, it’s easy to expect a bounce back.

Henley has finished inside the Top-20 in 13 of his last 17 starts dating back to the Players Championship last March. That is incredible consistency.

He is also a regular at this event having teed it up every year since 2013, which he WON in his debut! Additionally, he has four other Top-20 finishes here including a Runner-up in 2022.

Henley fits the mold of skill profiles that have excelled here as he is a great iron player. He isn’t long off the tee, but you don’t have to be.

He does, however, rank #6 in this field in SG Approach over the last 12 months. Expect a return to form this week at Waialae.

Sony Open Top-20 Finish: Eric Cole +170 Fitzpatrick (FanDuel or Bet365)

He’s going to win, and I’ll keep betting it, but he is a Top-20 machine and is the big reason he was handed the PGA Tour Rooke of the Year award last season at the ripe age of 35!

Cole’s last four starts look like this:
T14 The Sentry
T3 RSM Classic
T2 ZOZO Championship
T3 Shriners Children’s Open

He is contending every week he tees it up, even when the field strength rises. Dating back to the Mexico Open last April, Cole has finished inside the Top-25 in 13 of 21 starts including seven of the last nine.

Like Henley, Cole is a strong iron player as he ranks #8 in this field in SG approach over the last eight months.

If you need me to tell you, there is a reason strong iron players are in contention often. It is a very predictable skillset that isn’t as volatile as say, putting.

While the winner will certainly have to make putts to win, great iron players will at least be in the mix with only mediocre putting. But when they have a good putting week as Cole has had recently, gaining strokes on the greens in 11 of his last 16 starts, they will have a chance to win any week.

See you next week for The American Express!

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