The American Express Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds January 18-21

The American Express Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The American Express teeing off from Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and La Quinta Country Club in Palm Springs, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding The American Express starting January 18th!

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The American Express	The American Express Betting Notes
When:	January 18-21
Where:	Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, and La Quinta Country Club in Palm Springs, California
Defending Champ:	Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+800 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel

The American Express Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The American Express Betting Preview

As the Tour returns to the mainland, this is the time of year we get treated to several tournaments that are spread out over multiple tracks. 

The reason? Daylight is an issue in January/February and spreading out a field of 156 players over three courses helps cram in more golf in a short period of time. 

Plus, this is also an event in which pros are paired with amateurs during those first three rounds.  After each player gets a lap at each track (54-holes), the cut will be made down the traditional Top-65 and ties with the final round played at the Stadium Course.

The courses are among the easiest on Tour as scoring usually reaches the low to mid 20-under par range. 

Last year Jon Rahm won at 27-under but of course, he won’t be around to defend his title this year.  All three courses are stock par 72s with none of them reaching 7,200 yards in length. 

Plus, the rough is short at a maximum height of only 2” while the greens are at the comfortable speed of around 11.5 on the stimp meter.

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The field is solid this week with four players ranking in the Top-10 in the world, Scheffler, Schauffele, Cantlay, and Clark, plus an additional seven players in the Top-30.

There is also solid value on the board as the Top-3 favorites are all priced at +1100 or lower and it quickly drops off from there.

If history tells us anything, it’s that this is a great week to take a shot down the odds board. In the last 12 years of this event, only twice has the winner been priced lower than +3000 (30-1), while five times has the winner been listed at higher than +10000 (100-1) odds.

Much of that can be attributed to the format and the six-hour rounds with amateurs as it gets many of the pros off their game.

Weather, as it generally is this time of year in the area, is near perfect at 70 degrees each day and sunny. There is only a slight chance of rain on Sunday.

The American Express Outright Winner: J.T. Poston +3300 (FanDuel, PointsBet or BetMGM)

From Nick Borrman:

Hard not to continue to bet Poston at this price. They guy is simply playing great golf right now, off yet another Top-10 finish last week at the Sony Open where he finished solo 6th.

That followed a T5 finish the week prior at The Sentry. Going back to the John Deere Classic in July, Poston has had seven Top-10 finishes in his last 11 starts.

When you are looking for a profile that matters at a tournament that is expected to be low-scoring, approach and putting are the two most important metrics to look at and that is exactly where the Postman excels.

Poston has gained strokes in 11 straight events on the greens and in ten straight starts with his approach. Poston is #2 on Tour over that span putting averaging +1.08 SG per round, behind only Brian Harman who is playing in Dubai this week.

He also ranks #3 in this field in SG Approach during his run behind only Scheffler and Schauffele who are both priced at 11-1 or lower. #Value.

Finally, Poston has played here each of the last seven years, so he is familiar with the courses and the distraction of amateurs and is coming off a T6 last year.

The American Express Top-20 Finish: Eric Cole +170 (Bet365)

Rinse and repeat here for Cole and I repeat what I said last week. He’s going to win, and I’ll keep betting it, but he is a Top-20 machine and is the big reason he was handed the PGA Tour Rooke of the Year award last season at the ripe age of 35!

Cole’s last five starts look like this:
T13 Sony Open
T14 The Sentry
T3 RSM Classic
T2 ZOZO Championship
T3 Shriners Children’s Open

He is contending every week he tees it up, even when the field strength rises. Dating back to the Mexico Open last April, Cole has finished inside the Top-25 in 14 of 22 starts including eight of the last ten.

Like Poston, Cole is a strong iron player as he ranks #4 in this field in SG Approach over the last six months. He can also roll the rock as he ranks #2 in this field in SG Putting dating back to June. The only player ahead of him, well JT Poston of course!

See you next week for The Farmers Insurance Open!

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