The American Express Predictions, Picks and Odds January 19-22
The American Express Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The American Express teeing off from La Quinta, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, head-to-head matchups and other betting aspects surrounding The American Express teeing off January 19th!
Stay on top of the latest Golf updates direct from Las Vegas!
| The American Express | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 19-22, 2023 |
| Where: | Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club |
| Defending Champ: | Hudson Swafford (LIV) |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+650 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel |
The American Express Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +2.78 (+650)
Tony Finau +2.59 (+1500)
Patrick Cantlay +2.24 (+1100)
Scottie Scheffler +2.11 (+1100)
Xander Schauffele +2.04 (+2000)
Cameron Young +2.00 (+2200)
Will Zalatoris +1.89 (+2000)
Tom Kim +1.72 (+2500)
Taylor Montgomery +1.65 (+4500)
Sungjae Im +1.63 (+2100)
The American Express Course and Field
From Nick Borrman: The Hawaii swing is over and now the Tour moves into the California swing which is wildly unique. Over the next three weeks, each event will feature multiple venues as the guys play a total of eight courses in those three events starting this week.
The players will get one round each course over the first three days before settling back on the Stadium Course for the final round on Sunday.
That means the cut is also unique as it won’t happen until after 54-holes. Making things even a little tougher to figure out is that Strokes Gained data is only available at the Stadium Course and thus just 36 holes for this event.
Each course is a stock par 72 at similar lengths between 7,060 and 7,187 yards. La Quinta has proven to be the easiest of the three courses over the years with the lowest scoring average, followed by the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and then the Stadium Course ranking as the hardest of the three tracks.
The Pete Dye design features standard Dye trademarks all over including deep bunkers, offset greens and plenty of hazards running parallel to holes.
The Stadium Course features a similar final three holes as TPC Sawgrass with #16 being a risk-reward par-5, #17 as another island green par-3 and #18 a water-lined par-4 which will setup for great drama on Sunday.
The Field
This is the first full field event back in the continental United States and features ten of the Top-20 in the world. This is also a pro-am as each of the 156 professionals will be paired up with an amateur over the first three rounds making for some long rounds and some interesting TV.
Nick’s The American Express Predictions
Although only being measured on 36-holes, Hudson Swafford ranked #4 SG Approach and #2 Putting last year which followed Si Woo Kim at #4 and #8, respectively in 2021, and Andrew Landry at #9 and #6 in 2020. Bottom line, hit good irons and make your putts.
Outright Winner
Patrick Cantlay +1100 (DraftKings, PointsBet or BetMGM)
I was on Cantlay two years ago which was agonizingly close as he fired a final round 61 (-11) to fall just one shot short of last week’s champion Si Woo Kim.
He followed that up with a 9th place finish last year. In his only other start here in 2019, he finished T9. So that means in three starts he has finished no worse than 9th.
Cantlay opened his season at Kapalua with a T16 finish and in his only other start this season, he finished co-runner-up at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Although only eight measured rounds this season, Cantlay ranks #1 in Greens in Regulation and #1 in Birdie Average after finishing #18 and #5, respectively last year. Over his final 12 starts last season, Cantlay had two wins, eight Top-10 finishes and only two finishes outside the Top-14.
Top-20 Finish
Sungjae Im +115 (Bet365)
I highlighted Sungjae last week and he decided on a short stay in Hawaii as he failed to make the weekend after shooting 71 (+1) both Thursday and Friday, but I think that just sets him up a little better this week than if he was in contention last week.
You don’t have to be long here and Im is very accurate as he ranked #27 in Driving Accuracy last season and #9 in Greens in Regulation. With that, he ranked #9 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. When he does miss, his short game is excellent as he ranked #5 in Scrambling last year and #12 in SG Around the Green.
His history here is also very strong finishing no worse than T12 in each of the last four years. He averaged +2.35 SG per round over that span, granted that is only measured on the Stadium Course.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Brian Harman (+100) over Sam Burns (DraftKings)
Harman is easily the hotter player of the two. He finished T32 last week at the Sony Open which was his worst finish in six starts this season which includes two runner-ups at Mayakoba and the RSM Classic.
He also finished last season very strong with two more Top-10s in his final five starts with his last missed cut coming all the way back at the Genesis Scottish Open in July.
Burns meanwhile did not look good at Kapalua where he finished 32 out of the field of 39. He also wasn’t in contention at the limited field Hero Challenge in December and both of those came on the heels of a WD at the Houston Open after an opening round 77.
Burns played well here in his first two starts finishing 18th and 6th but he missed the cut last year after an opening round 77.
Harman though has a very strong record here. He has missed the cut once in seven starts, but his worst finish in his other six is a T21 with three Top-10s. I’ll grab even money on the hotter player with a great track record here.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s The American Express? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | The American Express Preview
Join Nick Borrman and Andy Lang on Tee Time from Vegas for The American Express preview!
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
