The American Express Preview and Predictions | Top Golf Picks For January 16-19

The American Express Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The American Express teeing off from La Quinta Country Club! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding The American Express starting on January 16th!

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The American Express	The American Express Betting Notes
When:	January 16-19
Where:	La Quinta Country Club in La Quinta, CA
Defending Champ:	Nick Dunlap
Current Favorite:	Sungjae Im (+1200 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, ESPN+

The American Express Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The American Express Betting Preview

The Aloha Swing has ended, and the Tour now shifts to the West Coast Swing with The American Express the first stop along the way.

Like every year, 156 entrants will tee it up this week, each paired with an amateur as three different courses share duties to accommodate such a large field at a time of year where daylight is an issue.

Each player will get one round at each venue, the Pete Dye Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, along with La Quinta Country Club, before a 54-hole cut is made with the low 65 and ties then playing the final round on the Dye Course.

With amateurs in the field, all three courses tend to play relatively easy for the professionals as both the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta averaged 4-under par per round while the Dye Stadium Course chipped in at a slightly higher 3-under over two rounds.

The 54-hole cut last year came at an incredible 13-under to give you an idea of expecting low scoring this week.

Additionally, all three tracks play as stock par 72s with the longest (Dye Stadium) topping out at only 7,210 yards.

With the courses recently over-seeded and amateurs in the field, the rough tops out at only 2” and green speed falls in the 11 to 11.5 range on the stimpmeter, slow for Tour standards. More reasons to expect low scoring.

Finally, the weather is non-existent. Well, sure, I guess there is always ‘weather’, but this would be the exact way you set the thermostat in your house ranging between the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain is not expected, and wind will be non-existent.

If history tells us anything, it’s that this is a great week to take a shot down the odds board. In the last 13 years of this event, only twice has the winner been priced lower than +3000 (30-1), while six times has the winner been listed at higher than +10000 (100-1) odds, including last year’s most-surprising winner, Nick Dunlap, then an amateur sitting at 400-1.

Much of that can be attributed to the format and the six-hour rounds with amateurs as it gets many of the pros off their game. Throw those darts this week!

The American Express Predictions

Winner: Sungjae Im +1200 (FanDuel or DraftKings) | Top-10 +160 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

Of the top four favorites, all priced similarly, I like Sungjae who has been steady as a rock since missing the cut at the US Open last summer. In 11 starts since, Sungjae has nine Top-13 finishes including a solo 3^rd two weeks ago at The Sentry.

Over the last 12 months, Sungjae ranks 6^th in this field in Total SG and over the last six months, he ranks 2^nd, gaining +1.91 strokes per round gaining in all five categories.

Oh, and he loves this tournament. In six starts, Sungjae is a perfect 6-for-6 with four Top-12s, a T18 and a T25 as his worst finish. Hard not to see him contend again where he seems very comfortable.

Winner: Si Woo Kim +4000 (BetMGM) | Top-20 +180 (DraftKings)

I was very tempted to go back to the well on Harry Hall this week, but I think this tournament gives a slight edge to those that have had experience and a decent history as playing three different venues, and more importantly, playing in a pro-am is much different than the guys are used to.

Si Woo is a past winner at this event back in 2021, plus he has two other Top-11 finishes. He also has two more near misses in terms of Top-20s finishing T22 and T25 each of the last two years.

His current form isn’t ideal with a T32 and a MC during the Aloha Swing to start the season, but again, I’m putting more emphasis into experience in this event. I expect to see him near the top come Sunday.

See you next week for the Farmers Insurance Open!

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