The Genesis Invitational Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds February 16-19

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Genesis Invitational teeing off from Riviera Golf Course. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, head-to-head matchups and other betting aspects surrounding the The Genesis Invitational teeing off February 16th!

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The Genesis Invitational	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	February 16-19, 2023
Where:	Riviera Golf Course in Pacific Palisades, CA
Defending Champ:	Joaquin Niemann (Now on LIV Tour)
Current Favorite:	Jon Rahm (+750 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & CBS

The Genesis Invitational Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.10 (+750)
Rory McIlroy +2.79 (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler +2.51 (+1100)
Tony Finau +2.34 (+1800)
Xander Schauffele +2.28 (+1800)
Sunjae Im +2.00 (+2800)
Will Zalatoris +1.93 (+4000)
Max Homa +1.93 (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay +1.81 (+2800)
Jason Day +1.81 (+4000)

The Genesis Invitational Course and Field

From Nick Borrman:

For the second straight week, we are being treated to an elite field of talent as another designated TOUR stop is in the cards this week for The Genesis Invitational. Add in Will Zalatoris who was missing last week and this field is technically even stronger.

Oh, and then there is the little story of the tournament host, Tiger Woods, teeing it up for the first time since the Open Championship last summer. As always, books are likely to be taking a lot of action on Tiger, especially because his odds to win are well north of 100-1.

Riviera is one course that has eluded Tiger over the years as he has never won here in 13 TOUR starts, but he absolutely loves the track, and it was the sight of his first ever TOUR start as a 16-year old sophomore in high school.

Riviera is as classic of a course as you will find on TOUR. Narrow fairways, plenty of doglegs and smaller than average greens. Like last week, Riviera is a par-71 with only three par 5s measuring just over 7,300 yards.

This will be the 60th edition of the tournament being played here, and Riviera is the future sight of the 2028 Olympics. This is a ball-strikers paradise as Riviera tends to play well below the Greens in Regulation average on TOUR.

Players will face plenty of mid-iron second shots, well above the weekly average in both 150-175 and 175-200 yard distances. Winners in the past here have been very creative around the greens so definitely look to avoid those players that struggle in that area.

Weather looks to be non-impactful this week with temps in the low 60s every day, winds only at 5-10 mph, and rain unlikely to make an appearance, so no need to worry about a better draw on Thursday-Friday.

While the Top-10 players in the world will get all the attention this week, pay some attention to the tournament’s all-time money leader, Adam Scott.

He won here back in 2005 and again in 2019 while also finishing T4 last year. While he isn’t a weekly staple on the TOUR any longer, he picks and chooses his favorite courses and tends to perform well on those tracks.

The Genesis Invitational Predictions

Like last week, leave your long shots for a weaker field as it just won’t happen at Riviera. Instead, focus on guys that hit fairways and greens and take an extra peak at those that thrive between 150-200 yards in proximity to the hole.

Outright Winner

Justin Thomas +1600 (Bet365, DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM)

He was a popular ‘fade’ pick last week as he has been struggling and hadn’t posted a Top-10 in a full field event since last June. But he pulled off one of the quietest Top-5 finishes I’ve seen in a long time.

It wasn’t until late on the back nine Sunday I was even aware he was on the course. That’s a testament to how well he played on the weekend as he ranked 2nd in SG Tee to Green in rounds 3 and 4 behind only Scottie Scheffler.

JT has always been a strong iron player, but that was the part of his game that seemed to have fallen lately, but he gained +4.37 strokes with his irons over the weekend.

His short game has also been ridiculous as he ranks #1 on TOUR in SG Around the Green over the last six months.

Thomas missed the cut here in 2020 and 2021 but finished T6 last year and runner-up in 2018. If he carries over the momentum from Scottsdale and gets off to a solid start, expect him in contention over the weekend.

Top-20 Finish

Max Homa +105 (Bet365)

Like last week, you can make a case for a lot of guys to finish Top-20 this week but I’m going to circle in on Homa who has put himself up there with the best five golfers in the world.

The California native has proven a very strong record in tournaments in his home state and of course is coming off a win just a couple week ago at Torrey Pines, his second of the season, and fifth since he won here two years ago.

Besides the win, Homa finished T10 here last year and T5 in 2020. Homa ranks 6th in Total SG this season, 14th Tee to Green and 24th Around the Green which is a big reason he has succeeded at Riviera.

He also ranks 18th in approach from 175-200 yards so he is not scared of that mid-iron which he will often face this week. He also owns the lowest scoring average at Riviera over the last five years.

Finally, Homa has the added benefit of not being in contention last week, finishing T39, so he might have a little extra freshness heading into this week.

Golfer to Fade

Cameron Young

The reigning TOUR Rookie of the Year hasn’t been able to get anything going so far this season. In five official starts, he has no finishes inside the Top-10 and only one finish inside the Top-20 which came at the Sentry TOC with a field of only 39.

He is coming off a 64th place finish last week in Scottsdale, shooting only one round under par. Young’s advantage is his length, but that is not the most important factor this week.

Finding the short grass and setting yourself up for approach shots is much more important at Riviera. He also ranks 158th in SG Around the Green this season and has gained strokes Putting in just one start at the Sentry TOC.

Even if he makes the weekend, don’t expect a late day tee time on Saturday or Sunday. Look to fade him in any H2H matchups your book offers this week.

See you next week in Florida for the Honda Classic!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s The Genesis Invitational? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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