The Honda Classic Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds February 23-26

The Honda Classic Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Honda Classic teeing off from PGA National Members Club in Palm Beach Gardens. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Honda Classic!

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The Honda Classic	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	February 23-26, 2023
Where:	PGA National Members Club in Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Defending Champ:	Sepp Straka
Current Favorite:	Sungjae Im (+1000 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & NBC

The Honda Classic Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Sungjae Im +1.85 (+1000)
Alex Noren +1.43 (+2600)
Matt Kuchar +1.30 (+2500)
Aaron Wise +1.13 (+2500)
Hayden Buckley +0.93 (+1800)
Denny McCarthy +0.92 (+2600)
Jhonattan Vegas +0.90 (+3700)
Billy Horschel +0.87 (+3100)
S.H. Kim +0.85 (+7500)
Min Woo Lee +0.81 (+2500)

The Honda Classic Course and Field

From Nick Borrman:

The West Coast Swing went out with a bang after back-to-back designated events saw elite fields, but the Florida Swing begins with this event sandwiched between those plus another designated event next week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Thus, almost all of the heavyweights are taking the week off as only eight of the Top-50 in the world will be teeing it up this week, led by tournament favorite and world #18 Sungjae Im. From there, only Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry rank in the Top-20.

That just means we have a very weak field with the potential of a longshot cash which the Honda Classic has produced many of over the years, including Sepp Straka at 125-1 last year.

The course is difficult. Designed by Tom Fazio and reworked by Jack Nicklaus, the winning score has averaged just 9-under par over the last dozen years and there is a good reason for that.

The four par 3s and the famous ‘Bear Trap’, holes 15-17, both rank as some of the most difficult on TOUR. In fact, last year the Bear Trap played +230 over par!

The track is a par-70 with only two par 5s which limits scoring opportunities. The par 3s are brutal and there is water everywhere on the property. It truly requires patience and course management to navigate.

Driver is often not the best play off the tee and Bermuda greens give players fits. Five of the last six winners have ranked #1 in SG Tee to Green proving that concept as you aren’t going to run away from the field with a hot putter.

Weather looks great and a reason why so many people retire in the area or have their 2nd home here. Temperatures will be in the low 80s every day with sunny skies and no rain in sight.

Winds are at their highest on Wednesday and bleeding into Thursday, but not significant and shouldn’t have any impact in creating a better Thursday-Friday tee time draw.

The Honda Classic Predictions

Most importantly, five of the last ten winners have had odds north of 100-1. I know you have been dying to take a longshot and have a realistic chance at winning, well this is your week!

Outright Winner

Jhonattan Vegas +3700 (FanDuel)

Vegas has made the cut in three of four events so far in 2023 and ranks inside the Top-10 Total Strokes Gained in this field over the last six months.

He also loves this tournament having played here ten times and only failed to make the cut once, with his best finish a T4 in 2017.

The reason Vegas has had success here is that his weakness, which is putting, is masked here as Bermuda greens tend to give everyone problems.

Additionally, this track is very difficult, and players hit greens in regulation well below the TOUR average.

Simply hitting greens will give any player and advantage this week and Vegas is excellent at that ranking 5th in SG Approach over the last six months and #1 in SG Tee to Green by a wide margin at +2.18 per round with only Sungjae Im within a full stroke of that at +1.53.

Top-20 Finish

Chris Kirk +140 (Bet365)

Like Vegas, Kirk’s strength is his tee to green game as he ranks #5 in this field over the last 12 months and he ranked #20 of all players on TOUR last season which is high compared to this field.

He also has a strong short game which will come into play on this difficult track ranking #10 last season in SG Around the Green.

Kirk has played this event in 11 of the last 12 seasons. Although he has missed the cut four times, he is coming off a 7th place finish here last year and 25th two seasons ago, missing the Top-20 by one shot.

In two other weak-field events this season, Kirk finished solo 3rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and followed that up with a T3 at The American Express. He is one of the more consistent options to play at PGA National.

Golfer to Fade

Shane Lowry

Lowry is the 2nd favorite this week but at a price I don’t want to grab. I want to be clear, I don’t expect him to miss the cut, I just don’t see him returning any value whether you are looking to bet Outright, Leaderboard, Matchups or in Daily Fantasy.

He certainly has an axe to grind after finishing runner-up last season. He had his chance late on Sunday until the skies opened up while he was on his final hole causing him to settle for par on the par-5 18th hole and finish one shot back of Sepp Straka.

Lowry was in excellent form heading into that tournament last season and this year he just hasn’t been quite as sharp.

He finished T14 last week at The Genesis Invitational which is a very good result, but had missed the cut in each of his two previous starts and hadn’t finished inside the Top-20 in six starts before last week. Not what you want to see from the 2nd betting favorite.

See you next week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s The Honda Classic? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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