The Masters Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds April 11-14

The Masters Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The Masters teeing off from Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Masters starting April 11th!

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The Masters	The Masters Betting Notes
When:	April 11-14
Where:	Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA
Defending Champ:	Jon Rahm
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+450 at DraftKings)
TV:	ESPN, CBS

The Masters Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The Masters Betting Preview

And just like that, the first major of the year has arrived. Oh, and it’s the best tournament of the year, bar none, so that’s cool too.

What’s nice about this week for me, is that I don’t have to go into too much detail on the course itself. Even for the most casual golf fan, if there is one track in the world you are even slightly familiar with, it’s this one.

Plus, you can find a thousand articles online about the course and the experience as a fan attending. So, instead, I’ll skip the course preview and focus on what it takes to win here.

Experience. More than any other course on Tour, experience matters at Augusta National. Every hole has places you can miss, and places you cannot.

It takes experience and patience to know and avoid those places you can’t miss. The greens are also play to experience when it comes to where to land the ball to get it to chase or funnel to the pin.

To highlight the importance of experience here, DataGolf put together a great graphic to visualize players’ performance at The Masters in relation to the number of times they have teed it up here.

In years one and two playing August National, players on average lose strokes to the field. On year three, the begin gaining strokes over the field and those numbers steadily rise before peaking in year nine.

The most consistent period of peak performance at Augusta National is found in those players competing in their 7th to 13th Masters.

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Players who fall into that category include (in order of OWGR):

Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, Si Woo Kim, Corey Conners, Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, Gary Woodland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Danny Willett.

Notable names that does not include is Rory McIlroy, who is starting in his 16th Masters, as well as Dustin Johnson (14th) Justin Rose (19th), Adam Scott (23rd) and of course, the Big Cat, Tiger Woods (26th) who have all passed their peak performance years. It is worth mention that Tiger has never missed the cut here in 24 starts as a professional.

Of course, that doesn’t mean someone outside of that list can’t win, Scottie Scheffler two years ago is a perfect example, playing in just his 3rd Masters, however, normalcy returned last year as Jon Rahm was right in that sweet spot, playing in his 7th Masters.

In addition to experience, you better be playing well coming into this tournament as all these winners’ trends highlight:

Recent Results:

• 13 of the last 15 have at least 4 TOUR wins
• 12 of the last 14 have finished in the Top-6 in a major in the previous two years
• 13 of the last 14 have finished in the Top-8 at least once in their previous seven events

In the year leading up to the Masters:

• 14 of the last 14 have ranked inside the Top-30 SG: Tee to Green 
• 14 of the last 15 have ranked inside the Top-50 in Driving Distance 
• 14 of the last 16 have ranked outside the Top-50 in SG: Putting

Overall:

• 22 of the last 24 winners have ranked inside the Top-30 OWGR
• Since 2000, everyone not named Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson or Bubba Watson is a first-time winner.

So, to sum it up, you need to know Augusta National and you need to be in good form.  Additionally, it helps to be long off the tee and have strong ball-striking numbers, but oddly, being an elite putter is something the winner at Augusta hasn’t been on average.

Yet despite that, and despite player’s tendency to play well year in and year out here, there has only been three winners since 2000 that have won this tournament multiple times.  Seems wrong.

And finally, the weather.  Thursday looks all but certain to have thunderstorms, with the forecast right now calling for them to be in the morning. 

Winds are expected to be in conjunction with that while continuing through the day and into Friday.  Not sure we will see an advantage in the tee time draw between Thursday and Friday, and although it would make sense to want to avoid rain, thunderstorms, aka lightning, will pull players from the course and when they return, they could take advantage of soft conditions. 

Of course, it’s nearly impossible to figure out that timing, but like always when weather could play a factor, the longer you wait for the forecast, the better chance you will have of getting your bets on the better side of the weather.

The Masters Outright Winner: Xander Schauffele +1600 (DraftKings)

From Nick Borrman:

Yes, I know, he hasn’t won on Tour since 2022 and he has still, somehow, yet to win a major, but that win is coming sooner or later, and he fits all the most important trends this week at The Masters.

He is playing great coming in, holding the Tour’s longest active cut streak at 42 straight, ahead of Scottie Scheffler in 2nd with 33. In his last 11 starts, he has finished inside the Top-10, eight times, more often than he has not, just three times.

His data points are right in line with past winners. I’ll start with Approach. Xander has gained strokes on Approach in 28 of his last 29 starts. He has also gained strokes in 13 straight starts around the green.

Off the tee has been sharp as well gaining strokes in 19 of his last 22 starts and perhaps most impressively is his consistent putting where he has gained strokes in 27 of his last 29 starts.

Finally, Xander has finished inside the Top-20 in seven straight majors and has finished inside the Top-10 in three of the last five years here with a runner-up in 2019 and T3 in 2021.

The Masters Top-20 Finish: Russell Henley +170 (DraftKings including ties)

Henley has been playing great over the last year. Dating back to the 2023 THE PLAYERS, Henley has finished inside the Top-20 in 16 of his 24 (67%) starts.

Additionally, Henley:

Ranked Top-15 Fedex Cup last year
Ranks Top-5 in 3-putt avoidance
Ranks Top-30 in SG Putting
is Top-15 in Data Golf
is Top-20 in OWGR
Finished 4th here last year and has finished inside the Top-15 in three of his last four starts here.

Additionally, Henley has gained strokes in approach in 20 of his last 24 starts, gained strokes off the tee in 19 of his last 25 starts, and gained strokes around the green in 17 of his last 25.

Henley’s 60-1 Outright price looks attractive for all those reasons as well, but considering the Winner at The Masters has ranked in the Top-50 in Driving Distance in 14 of the last 15 years, plus with Thursday’s rain, it will only make the course play longer so I’ll avoid him there.

See you next week for the RBC Heritage!

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