The Masters Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds April 6-9

The Masters Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Masters teeing off from Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding The Masters this week!

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The Masters	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	April 6-9
Where:	Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	ESPN & CBS

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The Masters Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.02 (+950)
Scottie Scheffler +2.78 (+700)
Rory McIlroy +2.63 (+750)
Patrick Cantlay +2.40 (+2000)
Tony Finau +2.30 (+2500)
Jason Day +2.24 (+2900)
Xander Schauffele +2.12 (+2500)
Max Homa +1.90 (+3200)
Collin Morikawa +1.84 (+2500)
Viktor Hovland +1.82 (+3700)

The Masters Course and Field – Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA

From Nick Borrman:

The best week of the year has arrived. The beauty of this week, as someone who writes golf articles and previews every tournament, is that this is one week I don’t have to break it down too much.

Even the more casual golf fans are familiar, at least somewhat, with Augusta National. So instead, I’ll focus on what matters here, or at least, what history has proven to be the path to victory.

Course history at Augusta matters. There is no course where it matters more. Those that tend to perform well here, perform well year after year. There is also a learning curve at Augusta National.

Data Golf put together a great graphic to visualize players’ performance at The Masters in relation to their experience in the tournament.

In the first and second tries at Augusta, players on average lost strokes to the field and it wasn’t again until year 20 that they again lose strokes to the field (with 20 years of experience, you are clearly getting older and no longer playing in your prime).

On their third year they began gaining strokes over the field. The number of strokes gained then steadily rises until peaking in year nine.

The most consistent period of peak performance at Augusta National are those players contending in their 7th to 13th Masters.

Players who fall into that range this week include:
Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Danny Willett, Cameron Smith, Kevin Kisner, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, Kevin Na, Hideki Matsuyama and Dustin Johnson.

A couple notable names it does not include is Rory McIlroy, who is starting in his 15th Masters, as well as Justin Rose, Tiger Woods and Adam Scott, who have all passed their peak performance years at Augusta.

Of course, that doesn’t mean someone outside of that list can’t win, case in point Scottie Scheffler last year, but the point is, the more experience, the better at August National.

In addition to course history, there are a ton of trends to help narrow it down this week, these are a few of my favorite:

Recent Results:

12 of the last 14 winners have at least 4 TOUR wins
11 of the last 13 have finished in the Top-6 in a major in the previous two years
12 of the last 13 have finished in the Top-8 at least once in their previous seven events

In the year leading up to the Masters:

13 of the last 13 have ranked inside the Top-30 SG: Tee to Green
13 of the last 14 have ranked inside the Top-50 in Driving Distance
14 of the last 15 have ranked outside the Top-50 in SG: Putting

Of this season’s 23 winners:

13 ranked inside the Top-8 in Total SG over the previous 12 months
10 ranked inside the Top-3 in Total SG over the previous 12 months
4 of 5 Designated Event winners ranked inside the Top-3 in Total SG over the previous 12 months

So, to sum that up, past champions have already proven themselves to be winners, have good results in recent majors and are in good form coming in.

Additionally, it helps to be long off the tee and have strong ball-striking numbers. In an odd twist, it helps to not be an elite putter.

I can’t help but keep scratching my head at that putting statistic. If that holds true, that would eliminate several big names this week including Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland and Cameron Smith.

The final piece I’ll mention this week is the weather. It will be a factor. Rain is forecasted Friday thru Sunday and all signs are pointing to the possibility of a Monday finish.

Make sure to take the extra time to check weather forecasts the final 24 hours prior to tee off on Thursday to make sure you are getting on the best side of the draw with your picks.

The Masters Predictions

Don’t venture too far down the oddsboard this week. 21 of the last 23 winners were ranked inside the Top-30 in the OWGR. Expect the cream of the crop to rise at a major with some tough weather.

Outright Winner

Max Homa +3200 (FanDuel)

At some point he has to perform at the majors, but regardless, he has proven to be one of the most consistent players of the last 12 months.

He ranks #7 in Total SG over the last year and has gained strokes on the field in 13 straight tournaments with the last time being the last major he played in at The Open Championship.

Of course, he has faced major-like fields since then with three playoff events and five designated events and finished in the Top-10 five times. He has proven himself among the best.

This will be Homa’s 4th Masters and while he doesn’t have a strong finish with two missed cuts in this first two starts followed by a T48 last year, you can’t compare Homa of past years to the Homa of now.

Leaderboard Finish

Jason Day Top-10

Over his last 12 starts, Day has finished inside the Top-20 ten times with one missed cut and the other finishing one shot back at T21.

He has been even better more recently with Top-10 finishes in five of his last six starts which includes five designated events with major-strength fields, and arguably tougher than this Masters’ field.

Day has been striking it very well gaining strokes on Approach in 12 of this last 14 starts and Off the Tee in ten of his last 14. He has been combining that with a hot putter gaining strokes Putting in seven straight events.

Obviously, Day has been struggling the last few years, but you can argue he is quickly approaching the level of play when he was winning majors and ranked #1 in the world. During that time, he had four Top-10 finishes here including three Top-5s.

Favorites to Fade

Jon Rahm

Wanted to choose one of the Big 3 here and I believe Rahm is likely to have the worst week of the three. That doesn’t mean I expect him to miss the cut, rather just provide the least value in expected return based on his odds. I would comfortably choose Scottie or Rory in H2H matchups over Rahm this week.

Rahm, who was the hottest player on the planet just six weeks ago culminating with his win at the Genesis Invitational, his 5th win in a span of nine events worldwide, has seemed to drop off that last couple of tournaments.

He finished T39 at Bay Hill in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, WD from the PLAYERS, although that was due to sickness so can’t necessarily fault him there, but then failed to make it out of his group in the Dell Match Play.

Sure, very small sample size and he is an elite talent, but not quite the results I would want to see over the previous 6-7 weeks heading into Augusta.

Of course, that could also mean he’s due to bounce back…

Enjoy the best week of the year and see you next week at the RBC Heritage!

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