The Open Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds July 18-21

The Open Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The Open Championship teeing off from Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the The Open Championship teeing off on July 18th!

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The Open Championship	The Open Championship Betting Notes
When:	July 18-21
Where:	Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland
Defending Champ:	Brian Harman
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+500 at DraftKings)
TV:	USA Network, NBC

The Open Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The Open Championship Betting Preview

Royal Troon hosts The Open Championship for the 10th time in its history with the last coming in 2016, won by Henrik Stenson at 20-under par. Prior to that, Todd Hamilton was the surprise winner in 2004, though at a much higher score of 10-under par.

While weather is usually the last thing we cover, it earns it spot near the top of the list as this is The Open Championship.

Temperatures look steady in the low to mid-60s all week with rain showers in the forecast at times, mostly over the weekend, but the big question is always the wind and the forecast looks like we will see steady Scotland winds all four days between 10-20 mph.

Certainly enough to calculate and pay attention to while slightly mishit shots will be penalized even more.

Strategy is the name of the game at these links courses as wayward shots into pot bunkers, deep rough and long fescue are often seen as immediate one-stroke penalties in which experienced players will be wise to take their medicine and minimize the damage when that happens.

Of course, nobody did it quite like Tiger Woods who hit one driver at Royal Hoylake to purposefully be short of, and then miss every bunker as his mid to long iron game was electric.

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Royal Troon is a par-71 layout that can stretch to nearly 7,400 yards. The back nine is over 300 yards longer and it will play much harder than the front this week, meaning guys will have to come out aggressive early and then hang on.

In the 2016 edition, the back nine played more than 2.0 strokes over par which ranked as the hardest back nine of any course that year.

This year’s Royal Troon measures nearly 200 yards longer than in 2016 with the par-5 sixth hole measuring at 623 yards, the longest hole in Open Championship history.

However, no yardage was added to the famed “Postage Stamp” par-3 eighth hole that measures in at just 123 yards and usually plays under 100 at least one round.

Winner trends are always interesting in the major championships, so here are a few worth noting:

Each of the last 10 Open Championship winners:
Finished Top 2 in a previous major
Finished in the Top 15 in at least three of their previous five starts
Finished in the Top 3 in a PGA Tour event already that year
Had a prior Top 20 finish in The Open (*if they had played)
Been ranked inside the OWGR Top 40

Additionally, 15 of the last 18 Champions had a previous Top-9 finish at The Open and eight of the last 12 have been at least 32 years of age or older.

Finally, this week’s field size is a bulky 158 and will be cut down to the low 70 and ties.

The Open Championship Outright Winner & Top-5 Finish: Collin Morikawa +1600 (Everywhere) | Top-5 +350

From Nick Borrman:

Morikawa has a mixed bag of results in this Championship. He won in his debut in 2021 (and is the exception to the winner trends of having a previous Top-20) but missed the cut in of the last two editions.

However, he looks ready to bounce back into contention at this Championship on the heels of a strong T4 finish last week at the Scottish Open.

In fact, since the Masters, where he finished T3, Morikawa has rivaled the runs of Scheffler, Rory or Xander, minus the wins with nine straight Top-16 finishes sans the Zurich Classic partners event where he finished T23.

The most promising thing from his current run is that he gained strokes putting in eight of those nine events, formerly his weakest stat line. He also didn’t have the best short game and has had a similar run gaining strokes around the green in eight of his last nine starts.

Morikawa’s ball-striking and accuracy will help him a ton this week and his lack of distance is unlikely to hurt him. Expect another solid four days and high finish with a chance to win on Sunday.

The Open Championship Top-20 Finish: Corey Conners +240 (FanDuel or DraftKings) / TOP CANADIAN +130

Conners is as steady as they come as he hasn’t missed a cut dating back to last year’s US Open, a run of 26 straight tournaments. He has been especially strong since March with nine Top-25 finishes in his last 13 starts including last week at the Scottish Open.

Additional tournaments he has cashed this ticket include the US Open, the Memorial Tournament, RBC Canadian Open, Wells Fargo Championship, THE PLAYERS, Arnold Palmer Invitational, all of which were majors or Signature Events.

The funny side of Conners is that his ball-striking is so good, he can make up for very poor putting which is what plagues him the most and keeps him from winning. Over his last 22 starts, all of which are made cuts, mind you, he has gained strokes putting just six times.

But here’s what I like about his putting this week. Links putting is slower paced to allow for the often-breezy conditions, and Conners seems to do well with them having gained strokes putting in each of his last five starts during the ‘links swing’, aka The Open and Scottish Open.

If Conners can mask his worst attribute again here, there is little chance he won’t be in the final ten groups on Sunday.

Hadwin just one Top-25 finish in his last seven starts including two MCs. Never better than 35th in four Open Championships

Taylor just one Top-25 finish in his last 12 starts including four MCs. Only one start in The Open, a MC last year.

Hughes Slightly better two Top-25 finishes in his last nine starts but with three MCs. Only two starts at The Open, did finish T6 in 2021, but MC in 2022 and DNP last year.

The Open Championship Top-20 Finish: Tony Finau Top-20 +170

I think Finau is going to fly under the radar this week as a guy you don’t think of when it comes to links golf. But he is in incredible form right now and hard not to see him with a solid week at Royal Troon.

Finau has cashed five straight Top-20s including at both the PGA Championship and the US Open. His iron play continues to be elite and he has actually gained strokes putting in three straight events, also his weakest attribute.

Going back a little further to the TOUR Championship at end of last season, Finau has 19 starts and has finished inside the Top-20 in 12 of them with just one MC.

I would be very surprised if we didn’t see him on the weekend and that will always give us a chance to cash a leaderboard bet.

He has decent finishes at this Championship though he did miss the cut last year, but he also has four Top-20 finishes in seven starts overall.

His very first start at The Open also happened to be in 2016, the last year the tournament was played at Royal Troon and he did very well finishing T18 in his debut which should give him extra confidence this week.

He did not play last week, which you could argue is a negative without prep, but I see it as a positive with a little extra rest.

See you next week for the 3M Open!

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