The Players Championship Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds March 9-12

The Players Championship Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The Players Championship teeing off from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The Players Championship!

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The Players Championship	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	March 9-12, 2023
Where:	TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Defending Champ:	Cam Smith (LIV Tour)
Current Favorite:	Rory McIlroy (+900 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & NBC

The Players Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahm +3.31 (+900)
Rory McIlroy +2.77 (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler +2.70 (+1100)
Patrick Cantlay +2.39 (+1800)
Tony Finau +2.30 (+3000)
Max Homa +2.22 (+2200)
Xander Schauffele +2.09 (+2600)
Jason Day +2.05 (+3300)
Collin Morikawa +1.90 (+2800)
Justin Thomas +1.81 (+1900)

The Players Championship Course and Field – TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida)

From Nick Borrman:

I’ll start this week’s article with a quick reminder. When looking at last year’s results, take them with a BIG asterisk as the luck of the tee time draw had the biggest effect on a tournament result that we have seen in a long, long time.

Bad weather affected both the first and second rounds and the same wave of players got the worst of it. If someone you like this week missed the cut last year, don’t sweat it.

Additionally, and you will hear this from more than just me, Sawgrass is one of the most volatile tournaments on the PGA TOUR.

Leaderboards rarely look the same year over year and never has a winner repeated as champion. That statement alone tells the story. Bottom line, this is not a ‘horse for the course’ venue. Here are some specific trends that speak to this point:

Only three players in the entire field have made the cut in each of the last five editions: Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm and Keegan Bradley.
Spieth + Finau have combined to miss nine of the last 13 cuts here.
Cantlay + Schauffele have combined to miss six straight cuts.

There are winning trends to pay attention to this week however:

Course History:

15 of the last 15 winners finished T23 or better at this event at least once before.
10 of the last 12 winners played here at least five times prior.

Current Form:

24 of the last 24 winners made the cut in their previous start.
11 of the last 12 winners have finished T22 or better in their most recent start.
10 of the last 12 winners have finished T4 or better at least once in the same calendar year.

Recent Rankings:

16 of the last 18 winners ranked in the Top 35 in SG Approach in the 12 months prior.
9 of the last 11 winners ranked in the Top 45 in SG Around the Green in the 12 months prior.
17 of the last 19 winners ranked inside the Top-50 of the OWGR.

TPC Sawgrass is Pete Dye’s most famous design. The course isn’t long by TOUR standards at just over 7,200 yards and plays to a stock par 72.

Everyone knows hole #17, but the 3-hole finishing stretch of #16-18 is as good as it gets. Dye’s specialty is creating chaos with slight misses as his designs require strategic placement off the tee and he severally penalizes missed approach shots with tricky bunkering and runoff areas.

Water is in play on 17 of 18 holes and it is truly tough to avoid at least one penalty shot over 72 holes. Wind is usually a factor and will cause quality shots to go unrewarded. All the above is what tends to produce such varying results year over year.

Bottom line, expect an unpredictable and exciting event this week!

The Players Championship Predictions

It’s hard to ignore the trends I mentioned above. When narrowing down from those that check most of those lists, focus on Approach play more than anything. If you can avoid the slight misses that plague Dye courses, you can win at TPC Sawgrass

Outright Winner

Max Homa +2200 (Bet365)

Week in and week out Homa continues to deliver. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship. His worst finish in eight official starts this season is a T39, but otherwise has finished T23 or better in all the rest including two wins at the Fortinet and Farmers Insurance Open.

He has no real weaknesses in his game and he has been excelling with his approach play as he ranks 5th in this field over the last six months and 1st over the last three months gaining +1.34 strokes per round.

Homa doesn’t have the five-start trend under his belt as he has only played here twice before, missing the cut in 2021 but he did finish T13 last year.

Overall, he is playing the best golf of his career and has so much confidence in what he is doing. I have no doubt we will see his name on that first page come Sunday.

Top-20 Finish

Jason Day Top-10 +320 | Top-20 +150 (Bet365)

Day will be a popular pick this week simply because of his form. He has been incredible and ranks 4th in this field in Total SG over his last 20 rounds. He is in the middle of a resurgence in his career and is as hot as anyone on TOUR.

He has missed the cut twice in 12 starts which oddly enough came at the weakest field events, the Fortinet Championship and the RSM Classic, but in his other ten tournaments, his worst finish is a T21. He is currently working on a run of four straight Top-10 finishes.

Day didn’t qualify for the Sentry TOC, but in the other three designated events he finished T5 at the WM Phoenix Open, T9 at The Genesis and T10 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is the only player on TOUR to finish Top-10 in all three.

As with anybody’s history at Sawgrass, you will see some ups and downs. Day has missed the cut four times in 11 appearances, but he is a past winner plus has an additional three Top-10s.

He ranks 12th in SG Tee to Green this season, 25th in SG Approach, 14th in SG Putting and 10th in Total Driving. He is firing on all cylinders right now.

Golfer to Fade

Colin Morikawa

The rule I must follow is that this player needs to be in the Top-10 of my opening Total SG chart. Anyone can fade the guy ranked #100!

Over his last five starts, Morikawa has finishes of 2nd (Sentry TOC), 3rd (Farmers) and T6 (Genesis), but he has also missed the cut in two other designated events at the WM Phoenix Open and last week at the API.

Last week will play similarly to this week and a big reason I don’t trust Morikawa with wind and water adding to the volatility.

My two key stats this week are Approach which Morikawa is one of the elite in that category along with Around the Green where he leaves something to be desired ranking 59th this season.

Although that is admittedly improved from 152nd last year. Still, with Dye’s designs, you are going to face your fair share of scrambling and Morikawa is likely to lose a few shots to the field in that area this week. I just don’t see a good return on his price, currently ranked as the 7th betting favorite.

See you next week in for the Valspar Championship!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s The Players Championship? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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