US Open Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 15-18
US Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the US Open teeing off from Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the US Open this week!
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| US Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | June 15-18 |
| Where: | Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA |
| Defending Champ: | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Current Favorite: | Scottie Scheffler (+700 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | GOLF & NBC |
US Open Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)
Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA
From Nick Borrman:
There is a plethora of great published information out there about this ultra-exclusive private club. It starts with going to the official US Open page and clicking through all 18 hole flyovers to get a good understanding of what the players will face this week.
There is a ton of elevation change around the track with uneven lies everywhere. Fairways will dogleg one direction but run off the opposite direction forcing players to hit a certain ball flight to be able to hold them.
The fairways in general are wide, much wider than what you would expect at a US Open, but because of the slopes combined with the expected firm and fast conditions expected by the weekend, it will still be difficult to stay in the fairway. Runoff areas look brutally tough with natural barrancas coming into play on just about half of the holes.
Videos that have surfaced of the rough, particularly around green complexes, looks diabolical. Just dropping a ball into the grass and watching it disappear. The rough is all Bermuda grass which will be very difficult to play out of as the ball naturally wants to fall straight to the bottom. The greens, however, are all bentgrass.
The course plays to a par-70 and measures over 7,400 yards in length. There are three par 5s and five par 3s putting a little extra emphasis into par-3 scoring this week.
Two of the par 3s can play as long as 290 yards which is just ridiculous, though they won’t play to their full yardage due to elevation change and the ability to run the ball onto the green.
Again, with a very little effort, you can find a ton of information on the track, but I’ll instead focus on what I think it will take to win this event.
- Distance off the tee is important but one must have the ability to work the ball both directions into the fairways. Top-5 SG Off the Tee the last 12 months include: Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau, Young and Cantlay.
- Strong iron play with high Greens in Regulation percentage will minimize the number of times dealing with the gnarly Bermuda rough around the greens. Top-5 in SG Approach the last 12 months include: Scheffler, Morikawa, Schauffele, Pereira and Finau.
- Par-3 Scoring will be important with five in play this week. Top-5 in Par-3 scoring this season include: Rahm, Homa, Fowler, Scheffler and Burns.
Additionally, here are some trends I found interesting for this week:
- Each of the last 8 US Open winners has finished T13 or better in their previous major start.
Additionally, each of the last 11 US Open winners:
- Was ranked inside the OWGR Top-30.
- Had a Top-5 finish already that year.
- Had made the cut at the last US Open AND the last major (PGA).
- Had won LESS than two majors.
That last bullet point I find extremely interesting as the US Open has proven that it produces more first-time major winners than any of the other majors. Seems odd to rule a guy like Koepka out because he has won too many? But who am I to argue with science?!
There is only one player that fits all five trends AND is in the Top-5 of my three most important stats for this week. It’s probably the reason he is #1 in the world and the betting favorite.
US Open Predictions
I don’t have to tell you to bet on Scheffler this week, you probably already figured that out, so instead, I’ll shine the light on a couple of other selections I think are worthy of a few bucks.
US Open Outright Winner
Viktor Hovland +1700 (FanDuel)
Now that Hovland finally has the proverbial monkey off his back for winning a big tournament as he captured the Memorial in his last start, this could be the start of something big for him when it comes to majors.
His last three major starts are:
2022 Open: T4
2023 Masters: T7
2023 PGA: T2
If that doesn’t spell a guy ready to win one, I don’t know what does. He has gained strokes Off the Tee in all 13 events he has played in 2023 as he has the rare combination of distance AND accuracy with his driver.
Par-3 scoring is strong, ranking 10th on TOUR this season. Additionally, he is 6th in overall Proximity including #1 in Proximity from the rough. Also 7th in Scoring Average.
His weakness has been his short game, but he has been trending upward in that department including gaining strokes at both the PGA and the Memorial.
Leaderboard Finish
Justin Rose Top-10 +365 (B365) | Top-20 +160 (B365)
Rose continues his phenomenal season with another Top-10 last week in Canada. In the biggest events this season he finished Top-10 at the PGA Championship and at THE PLAYERS while he finished just outside the Top-10 with a T16 at the Masters.
Rose’s approach game has been fantastic as he has gained strokes in approach in ten straight starts and overall ranks 13th on the season.
Rose also ranks:
4th in Proximity
2nd in Sand Save Percentage
6th Scoring Average
T-10th in Par-3 Scoring
Finally, Rose shows up strong at the majors as he has finished inside the Top-20 in 12 of the last 20 majors including seven Top-10s. Oh yea, and he’s also the #1 SG Putter on bentgrass greens dating all the way back to 2014.
Top-10 Player to Fade
Patrick Cantlay
I honestly do still expect Cantlay to finish Top-20, but the fact of the matter is that as the 5th betting favorite, I can’t get behind him to return value this week, or in any major.
Here’s the stat you need to know about Cantlay’s performances in majors. He has played in 26 majors so far in his career and has never entered the final round within five shots of the lead!
Prove to me you can win Patrick before I dare lay money on you to do so…
See you next week for the Travelers Championship!
US Open Betting Preview From WagerTalk Extra!
Nick Borrman and Andy Lang collaborate on WagerTalk Extra to give their individual US Open betting predictions and picks before this event tees off on Thursday morning. Get their outright winner plays, golfers to fade and even DFS options to take advantage of. View below now!
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