Valero Texas Open Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds March 30

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Valero Texas Open teeing off from The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding Valero Texas Open this week!

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Valero Texas Open	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	March 30 – April 2
Where:	The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, TX
Defending Champ:	JJ Spaun
Current Favorite:	Tyrrell Hatton (+1200 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & NBC

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Valero Texas Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Tyrrell Hatton +1.85 (+1200)
Rickie Fowler +1.54 (+2000)
Taylor Montgomery +1.28 (+2800)
Alex Noren +1.25 (+4800)
Si Woo Kim +1.24 (+2200)
JJ Spaun +1.03 (+3400)
Matt Kuchar +1.02 (+3300)
Ben Griffin +1.00 (+4800)
Andrew Putnam +0.91 (+5500)
Brendon Todd +0.90 (+4800)

Valero Texas Open Course and Field – The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio (San Antonio, Texas)

From Nick Borrman:

With the Masters on deck next week, this is obviously a weaker field with most of the big names taking the week off.

For others, this is the last chance to punch their ticket to Augusta as they try to work into the Top-50 in the world or simply win the tournament. As we often see in these fields, this is your chance to take some flyers on longshots to contend.

There simply isn’t a ton of value on the top of the odds board this week. Three of the last four winners include JJ Spain at 150-1, Corey Conners at 200-1 and Andrew Landry also at 200-1 with Jordan Spieth at 12-1 sandwiched in the middle.

TPC San Antonio is a stock par 72 measuring about 7,400 yards. The course is a stiff test tee-to-green and does not set itself up to be a shootout.

Typical winning scores are in the low teens with JJ Spaun lifting the trophy last year at 13-under par. Winning scores have ranged anywhere from 8-under to 20-under over the last ten years with wind being the main factor determining which end of the range the score falls on.

Three of the par-5s this week play around 600 yards which negates the advantage of length off the tee as most won’t be able to get home in two.

When looking for a skill set this week, pay close attention to long-iron statistics as there will be plenty in the hands of the players this week.

As it stands now, weather looks consistent the first two days and doesn’t look as if there is any advantage in the draw.

Winds are forecasted to be in the 10-20 mph range both days although there is a chance of late afternoon or evening thunderstorms on Thursday which could lead to some softer and better scoring conditions Friday morning.

Valero Texas Open Predictions

Don’t go heavy this week. Keep your coin in your pocket for the first major of the year next week. While Spieth was very predictable two seasons ago, many others were true darts on the board.

Outright Winner

Taylor Montgomery +2800

It’s only a matter of when for Montgomery. Taylor has been in a bit of a “slump” the last two months or so but that was in the deepest fields of the season with two missed cuts and no finish better than T31 in his last five stroke play events.

Those tournaments included four designated events and the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey though. Prior to that, Taylor was on fire, constantly putting himself in position to win in the weaker field events.

In nine starts from the Fortinet at the beginning of the season through The American Express at Pebble Beach in January, Montgomery had eight finishes in the Top-15!

The concern is that most of his Strokes Gained came with the flat stick but if the wind swirls this week, that could create havoc for everyone and perhaps let him climb the leaderboard on the heels of his putter.

With the course playing long this week, his driver is another weapon he can lean on as he ranks 36th in Driving Distance.

Leaderboard Finish

Thomas Detry Top-10 +550 | Top-20 +250

Detry was the 3rd favorite last week at 20-1 and this week has fallen as far as 50-1 despite the field remaining relatively weak and he played well, finishing T8.

The Rookie of the Year candidate had a very strong fall with four Top-15 finishes in five starts but it’s not like this is his first time around the block. While he is a first-time TOUR card holder, he has been plodding on the DP World Tour for years.

The negative is that he has not played here before but I’m willing to look past that as he is one of the of the more consistent players in this field having made the cut in 15 of his last 16 starts worldwide.

So long as he makes the weekend again, he should have a good chance at finishing near the top of the leaderboard.

Favorites to Fade

Hideki Matsuyama and Tyrell Hatton

You will probably hear about each of their respective injuries they are dealing with. Matsuyama’s seems more concerning as his neck injury has been nagging him for a longer period and those type of injuries have proven to be hard to get past. Case in point Matthew Fitzpatrick as he is also struggling with a similar injury.

Hatton was one of the hottest players on TOUR but he hurt his wrist prior to last week’s Dell Match Play before proceeding to go 0-3 in the group stage.

There isn’t much being said about it right now, so it could be nothing to worry about, but as the tourney favorite at 13-1, I’ll pass on taking that chance.

See you next week for The Masters!

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