Valspar Championship Free Picks, Predictions and DFS Lineup March 21-24

THE Valspar Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Andy Lang offers his thoughts on the the Valspar Championship teeing off from Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club. Andy discusses his DraftKings Darlings, golfers to who can trip you up and the course and more surrounding Valspar Championship starting March 21st!

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Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship Betting Notes
When:	March 21-24
Where:	Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, FL
Defending Champ:	Taylor Moore
Current Favorite:	Xander Schauffele (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Valspar Championship Course: Copperhead at Innisbrook Resort

This course is unique as it has 4 par-5s and 5 par-3s, and this will look different from the other Florida courses as there are a lot more trees, and a lot less water.

It features the dreaded “Snake Pit” which are holes 16, 17, and 18, and they are a brutal end to the round. The fairways are pretty tight, and there are many doglegs that prevent guys from just bombing it off the tee and not really worrying about where it lands.

You have to shape a lot of shots, and Thursday is going to be the only day without weather having a big impact as there is wind and thunderstorms predicted for Friday, and then gusty winds on Saturday and Sunday.

The course should be soft and receptive, but with the winds and penalties on wayward drives, I would expect the winning score to be around -10.

The Snake Pit

Hole 16 458 Yard Par 4

Just a brutal tee shot here as players have to navigate water on the right, trees on the left, and a very small landing area in the fairway as the hole doglegs from left to right. Even a great tee shot doesn’t guarantee a good score as bunkers are short left and to the right around the green, but a wayward shot will almost surely guarantee bogey or worse.

Hole 17 206 Yard Par 3

This is a big green where 3-putts can happen if you end up landing on the wrong part of the green with the tee shot, and four bunkers around the green can cause problems as well. It’s a 200+ yard par 3 so it’s not an easy wedge type of par 3 hole. Unless the tee shot is perfect, par is a great score here.

Hole 18 443 yard Par 4

The yardage isn’t totally accurate as it’s an uphill hole that plays much longer than 443. There are plenty of bunkers lining the fairway, and two massive bunkers short left and right so there is trouble looming on every shot. This is really fun hole to finish the round and tournament with. They don’t have actual drone flyovers of this course, but they have computer-generated flyovers of each hole that are pretty cool.

Valspar Championship Field

The week after The Players will clearly give us a weaker field, but Schauffele, Burns, Thomas, Spieth and Harman will be playing this week. It’s not a great field, but certainly not one of the worst ones we’ve seen this year.

Strokes Gained Last Three Months (PGA Tour Only)

1. Xander Schauffele 2.50

2. Sam Burns 1.90

3. Justin Thomas 1.84

4. Jordan Spieth 1.58

5. Brian Harman 1.53

6. Christian Bezuidenhout 1.51

7. Doug Ghim 1.45

8. Tony Finau 1.22

9. Nick Taylor 1.20

10. Beau Hossler 1.20

Valspar Championship: Players That Can Trip You Up

Brian Harman

He was great last week finishing 2nd, but that was his only top 10 finish this season outside of the short field at the Sentry in the first week of the year.

He has horrible course history here as he’s missed the cut in 5 out of the last 6 years here. He’s priced as a top 7 player this week, and that’s a lot to ask from a guy who doesn’t play well here and hasn’t shown consistent finishes in the top 10 this season.

Tony Finau

I don’t know if many people are going to be getting on him, but he’s priced as a top 6 golfer this week, and that price is insane. Finau has one finish better than 13th this season and was 45th last week.

He hasn’t played here since 2018, and has played here four times and missed the cut in three of those tournaments.

His strokes gained numbers are 8th in this field, but he’ll have to have his best finish of the season to return value, and he makes all of his strokes gained from tee to green as his putting strokes gained is -0.37. I don’t trust him, I won’t be betting on him this week.

MinWoo Lee

I don’t understand the love for MinWoo Lee. He has one finish inside the top 20 in six tournaments this year, and four out of his last five tournaments he’s finished outside the top 40.

He’s 23rd in this field in total strokes gained, and most of that is driving distance as he’s -0.11 putting and -0.03 approach, and yet he’s priced as a top 9 golfer this week.

I don’t get the love for him, and on top of all that he has never played here. I won’t be betting on him this week, I might even be betting against him.

Valspar Championship: DraftKings Darlings

Seamus Power $6600

His putting isn’t great, and he’s not very long off the tee, but he’s made the cut in six out of 7 events this year. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but in a weak field he should make the cut and get us some weekend points.

Lucas Glover $7300

Glover missed the cut last week, but had made the cut in the previous four tournaments, and he likes playing here as he’s made the cut five times in a row playing here. His putting numbers are bad, but his approach numbers are great at +0.93 strokes gained approach and this is a second shot course so his success here makes sense. The price is worth him being in your lineup this week.

Andrew Putnam $7700

He’s got the word “Putt” in his name so he has to be good, amirite??? Actually, his putting is good at +0.49 strokes gained this year, and he’s made the cut in seven out of eight tournaments this year. He has bad course history here, but he didn’t play last year so hopefully his current form out performs his course history.

Final Lineup: Seamus Power $6600 Lucas Glover $7300 Andrew Putnam $7700 Maverick McNealy $8100 Nick Taylor $9100 Xander Schauffele $11,200

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