Valspar Championship Odds and Betting Preview March 17-20
Valspar Championship Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Valspar Championship from Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the Valspar Championship leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Valspar Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | March 17-20, 2022 |
| Where: | Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, FL |
| Defending Champ: | Sam Burns |
| Current Favorite: | Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas (+900 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel and ESPN+ |
Valspar Championship Odds Board
Top-10 Strokes Gained Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via DraftKings and FanDuel)
Justin Thomas +2.26 (+1100) FD
Viktor Hovland +2.14 (+1100) FD
Collin Morikawa +1.88 (+1400) DK
Sam Burns +1.66 (+2100) FD
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.53 (+3400) FD
Tyrrell Hatton +1.50 (+2500) DK
Shane Lowry +1.36 (+3000) DK
Xander Schauffele +1.29 (+2100) FD
Dustin Johnson +1.25 (+1800) DK
Louis Oosthuizen +1.18 (+2400) FD
From Nick Borrman: A wild five tournament days at The PLAYERS Championship saw Cam Smith prevail for the 2nd time in 2022 with a Monday finish.
He becomes the 6th winner out of ten tournaments this year in which he ranked inside the Top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months heading into the event.
However, this week you have to wonder how guys that grinded it out over five days and finished on Monday deal with the short turnaround as the Tour moves over to Innisbrook.
Innisbrook Resort
First and foremost, weather is not expected to be a major factor. There is a small chance of some rain and thunderstorms mid-tournament, while wind could play a factor, albeit, not nearly like at TPC Sawgrass, nor Bay Hill for that matter. Otherwise expect sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s.
The winner of this tournament will be the one who can navigate the famous Snake Pit the best. Holes 16-18 averaged 0.38 over par per round last year which doesn’t sound like much, but considering Sam Burns won at -17 last year, yet was +3 over those three holes, tells you how difficult they can play.
The pars 4-3-4 leave very little scoring chances yet do provide an opportunity to make-up some ground by avoiding bogey.
As is usually the case, the par 5s are a must to score on if you want a chance to win at Innisbrook. Burns led the field in par 5 scoring last year at 4.06. Innisbrook also features five par 3s so pay attention to those that excel on the shortest holes.
Last year the tournament was played in May due to the scrambled Covid schedule, but this year as it slots back in March, expect some tougher scoring as the rough is able to grow a little longer.
The Valspar Championship Field
Lastly, 43 players that made the cut at Sawgrass last week are scheduled to tee it up this week. You will have to make the decision as to whether that helps or hurts with the tough conditions, irregular schedule and short turnaround.
Nick’s Picks
For those that didn’t make the cut last week, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it. Most likely they were on the wrong side of the weather-affected draw, which was more extremely skewed than in any recent tournament I can remember.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3400 (FanDuel) | Top-10 +320 (FanDuel)
What I love here is that we are getting almost the exact same number this week in a weaker field thanks to his MC last week at the Players, but I’m not too worried about it.
In fact, taking a top player in the event after a MC is actually a great angle to play on as most of the time we are getting some value on his odds as golf markets overreact on a weekly basis.
Before that MC at Sawgrass, Fitzpatrick had four straight Top-10 finishes worldwide plus he won not too long ago on the DP World Tour in October. He ranks #5 in Total Strokes Gained in this field over the last six months and boasts the 13th best scoring average on Tour so far this season.
He MC at Innisbrook in his only previous starts in 2018 but he has come a long way over the last four years.
Keegan Bradley +5000 (DraftKings) | Top-10 +500 (DraftKings)
Bradley led or co-led after each of the first three rounds here last year before finishing solo 2nd. He has also made all six cuts so far in 2022 and has gotten better of late finishing T11 two weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer and solo 5th last week at The Players.
Over the last three months, Bradley ranks 2nd in this field in SG Tee to Green over the last six months, behind only Justin Thomas, averaging +1.50 per round. Keegan is the type of player that can get hot and stay hot for a while then drop off and not be heard about for some time. Ride the hot hand here while he has it.
Brooks Koepka to Miss Cut +250
Besides needing a good event after another short week last week at Sawgrass, I see no motivation here from Koepka to show up. I guess the good news is he took it light-heartedly after shooting 81 in Round 2 and laughing off his shot on 17 in the crazy winds as he put it in the water both days.
Koepka did almost win at Phoenix last month, finishing T3 while also finishing T16 at the Honda but he has missed the cut in five of his last eight events overall with the other being a T28 at the Sentry TOC with only 38 players in the field.
He ranks outside the Top-100 in Strokes Gained Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green and Total while also ranking 175th and 177th in Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy, respectively. His scoring average of 71.58 this season is #155 on the PGA Tour.
Potential Players to Avoid
From Andy Lang: Dustin Johnson – He was terrible until he shot a 29 on the final back 9 on Monday including an eagle hole out from the fairway on the last hole, but that’s a deceiving 9th place finish…he finished 48th here last year, I’m still not buying that he’s back to elite status.
Tommy Fleetwood – Last two finished 22nd and 20th, but of the golfers priced above $8000 on Draftkings, he’s the only one to play three weeks in a row, and play on Monday…might have a little fatigue, and he’s at a course he’s never played so he loses a day to check out the course.
Valspar Championship Draftkings Darlings
The last couple weeks we’ve been doing stars, and scrubs, but with a loaded field the middle tier guys are the ones to focus on. Here are three gems.
$7000 Vaughn Taylor– He’s made the cut in all four tournaments he’s played in 2022, and ht’e finished 6th and 18th the last two years at the Valspar.
$7300 Patton Kizzire– Made the cut in six out of seven tournaments this year, and he’s played here four times making the cut in three of them. Finished 22nd and 32nd the last two weeks.
$8300 Alex Noren– All this guy does is make it to the weekend and get you points. 26th, 5th, 48th, 6th, 39th his last five tournaments and 21st last year the only time he’s played here.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Valspar Championship from Innisbrook Resort? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Valspar Championship Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the Valspar Championship from Innisbrook Resort. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
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