Valspar Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds March 21-24

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Valspar Championship teeing off from Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, FL. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding Valspar Championship starting March 21st!

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Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship Betting Notes
When:	March 21-24
Where:	Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, FL
Defending Champ:	Taylor Moore
Current Favorite:	Xander Schauffele (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Valspar Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

While not a Signature Event, the field remains relatively strong this week but the good news for everyone is that Scottie Scheffler is not teeing it up.

Nine of the Top-30 players in the world are in the field led by last week’s runner-up, and the Tour’s leader in consecutive cuts made, Xander Schauffele as the betting favorite at 7-1. Considering the grind last week and subsequent disappointment, it may be difficult for an ROI on Xander this week.

Burns, Thomas and Spieth round out the other players listed at less than 20-1, but there are a ton of quality players to look at between 20-1 and 50-1 this week so that’s where you should start your search.

The Copperhead Course is a difficult one to say the least. Last year’s winning score was 10-under and only three times in the last ten years has the victor gone lower than that. Last year, the course ranked as the hardest of the Florida Swing with the field averaging nearly one stroke over par (71.93).

Copperhead is a par-71 with five par 3s to go along with the traditional four par 5s and measures just over 7,300 yards.

What makes the course tricky is that driving distance tends to be negated as the design has chokepoints further up the fairway which makes laying back the more ideal choice. Rough will start the week at 3.5 inches and as we have seen in Florida thus far, a wetter than usual winter has made it even thicker.

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For that reason, roughly 50% of approach shots will be coming from 175 yards or more putting a premium on long iron play, and probably a big reason why scoring tends to be higher here than a wedge-fest track. That, and the Snake Pit.

The par 4-3-4 finishing stretch known as the Snake Pit is as tough of a 3-hole stretch as it gets. Last year they averaged +0.59 strokes over par.

Last year’s winner Taylor Moore made one birdie and no bogeys over the course of the four days. The goal, simply avoid bogey and attack the other 15 holes throughout the property.

As always, we end with Mother Nature. Weather looks very iffy on Friday, and it appears certainly worth your while to wait to place your bets to get a better read on it.

Depending what time thunderstorms and high winds are expected to arrive, there may be a significant advantage in the tee time waves between Thursday and Friday.

Valspar Championship Outright Winner: Doug Ghim +5000 (FanDuel or PointsBet)

From Nick Borrman:

Ghim will likely be a popular pick this week as he arrives in strong form with five straight Top-16 finishes coming in including last week at THE PLAYERS.

The run also includes the Farmers Insurance Open and the WM Phoenix Open, so Ghim is contending on both tough tracks and with deep fields.

Ghim has been great on approach during that run, ranking in the Top-10 in this field in SG Approach and combined with a solid driver and short game, he ranks 4th in SG Tee to Green.

Oh, and he has also gained +0.59 SG Putting during that stretch as well, so overall he ranks 3rd in Total SG over that span and 4th this season on Tour.

We know Scottie Scheffler is not in the field, but the next best scorer this season is, you guessed it, Doug Ghim, as he ranks 2nd in adjusted scoring and 1st in par-5 scoring.

He only has two starts at Copperhead, a MC in 2021 and a T27 last year but he is playing some of his best and most consistent golf of his career right now and is trending towards his first Tour win.

Valspar Championship Top-20 Finish: Taylor Moore +320 (Bet365)

We cashed Moore +7000 as an Outright play here last year to start a great spring/summer run so hoping for another springboard this week. While he may not be under the radar due to being the defending champ, he has been quietly earning paychecks.

Moore hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship last summer, a run of 12 straight cuts made. However, he only has one Top-20 finish during that stretch as well. He was on a more volatile run preceding last year’s tournament with four MCs in nine events leading up to the Valspar, so I like his consistency this year.

Moore has either had a great iron week or a great putting week but can’t seem to put both together over the same four rounds like he did here last year.

However, Copperhead has proven to be a course that once you figure out, you play well every year considering we saw both Paul Casey and Sam Burns win back-to-back times over the last five years.

Moore ranks 23rd in GIR this season and 41st and 28th in proximity from 175-200 yards and 200-225, respectively, which will both come into play often this week.

See you next week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open!

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