Waste Management Phoenix Open Predictions, Expert Betting Picks and Odds February 9-12

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Sportsmemo golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Waste Management Phoenix Open teeing off from Scottsdale, AZ. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, head-to-head matchups and other betting aspects surrounding the Waste Management Phoenix Open teeing off February 9th!

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Waste Management Phoenix Open	PGA Tour Betting Notes
When:	February 9-12, 2023
Where:	TPC Scottsdale – Stadium Course
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Jon Rahm (+700 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel & CBS

Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Jon Rahn +3.06 (+700)
Rory McIlroy +3.00 (+900)
Tony Finau +2.37 (+2000)
Scottie Scheffler +2.24 (+1400)
Xander Schauffele +2.23 (+1600)
Max Homa +1.05 (+2200)
Sungjae Im +1.99 (+2800)
Tom Kim +1.95 (+3000)
Patrick Cantlay +1.95 (+2100)
Collin Morikawa +1.87 (+2000)

Waste Management Phoenix Open Course and Field

From Nick Borrman:

What a wild week to be in the area. You can catch the rowdiest event on the PGA Tour AND make it to the Super Bowl while staying in the same hotel.

Making one of the best non-major events of the year even better, is the fact that it is an elevated event, the first full-field one of the season, and the giant purse has drawn a field as strong as a major with 22 of the Top-25 in the world in action this week.

In fact, the only eligible player ranked inside the Top-25 not in the field is Will Zalatoris as both Cam Smith and Joaquin Niemann are not-eligible to play (LIV Tour).

The field is headlined by the two hottest players on the planet and although this feels like a Rahm vs Rory billing, there are plenty of capable players that could lift the title this week.

Over the last five years, the Top-3 ranked players in Total SG at TPC Scottsdale are Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, the defending champion.

Rahm comes in at #4 on that list as he has finished no worse than T16 in seven starts here. McIlroy is missing all together from the list as he has only played this event one time, finishing T13 in 2021.

So, if you are choosing between Rahm and Rory this week, the course history edge is certainly with Rahm.

The par-3 16th gets all the attention, and deservedly so as there is simply no other golf hole on the planet quite like it.

It was literally built to be a spectacle with grandstands fully surrounding the hole and some of the wildest celebrations ever seen on a golf course. Google tournament highlights of #16 here and you will see things you never thought you would have seen on a golf course.

Part of my Monday ritual on Phoenix Open week every year is to watch (and usually re-watch four or five times) Tiger Woods’ hole-in-one here.

Even before the grandstands were built, it is something you must see. While it’s almost impossible to beat a Tiger Woods’ highlight, also checkout Sam Ryder’s ace from last year with the grandstands in full effect.

However, #17 may be the best strategic hole and one where the tournament will be won (or lost in Sahith Theegala’s case last year).

The drivable par-4 is very difficult with no bailout left or right, and even laying up just short is no picnic with a bunker sitting right in the middle of the fairway. It will test whoever is in contention on Sunday and likely decide the winner.

To round out the rest of the course, TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 with winning scores generally in the 15 to 20 under range. The course measures just over 7,200 yards and features only three par 5s.

The greens are relatively flat which allows some of the more notoriously poor putters to be able to contend.

Last year, eight of the top nine players finished the week inside the Top-20 in SG Putting while six ranked inside the Top-20 Off the Tee. Approach shots are always important but put a little more emphasis on Off the Tee statistics this week.

Nick’s Waste Management Phoenix Open Predictions

Unfortunately, don’t expect anybody in the longshot range to have any real true chance this week. This field is too strong.

Outright Winner

Tom Kim +3000 (Bet365 or BetMGM)

This is about as long of a shot as is likely to happen this week and Tom Kim has me ecstatic to back him at this number.

He is one of the rising stars on TOUR and has a personality that is just fit for this venue. He is opposite of Patrick Cantlay as he wears his emotions on his sleeve and can thrive if the fans get behind him.

Tom is already a two-time winner on TOUR and although this is his maiden voyage around TPC Scottsdale, he is in good hands with his caddie, Joe Skovron, who was on Rickie Fowlers bag for his victory in 2019.

Skovron actually lives in Scottsdale, and few people know the track better than him, so he should be able to guide Kim around the course.

Over the last six months, Kim ranks #5 in SG Tee to Green and #1 in SG Approach. His putting has not been elite, but as evidenced with Matsuyama winning twice here, TPC Scottsdale’s flat greens allow even a mediocre putter to win.

Top-20 Finish

Collin Morikawa +110 (Bet365)

There are a lot of guys you could put on the list top finish Top-20 this week, but I like getting this small plus price on Morikawa who is one of the purest ball-strikers on TOUR.

Morikawa ranks #1 in Driving Accuracy and #3 in Greens in Regulation this season leading to a #3 SG Tee to Green ranking. Twice already a major winner, his notorious weakness in his short career has been his putting, but he has steadily been getting better.

In the 2020-21 season, Morikawa ranked #178 in SG Putting. Last year he ranked #131 and this season is currently inside the Top-100 at #95.

However, over the last three months, Morikawa ranks #6 averaging +1.08 strokes gained per round. With a hot putter, Morikawa can be lethal and with TPC Scottsdale’s flat greens, even a poor putter can find success.

Morikawa coughed up a 5-shot lead heading into the final round at the Sentry TOC in Hawaii in his first start this year but backed that up with a 3rd place finish at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. No reason to think he won’t be back in contention again this week.

Golfer to Fade

Matthew Fitzpatrick +275 (Bet365)

Always difficult to find a reason to fade one of the Top players in the world, but Fitzpatrick should be avoided this week.

I say that after I backed him last week, but that was before he announced he was having neck issues and was teeing it up last week just to get some reps in.

He played OK on Thursday and Friday before imploding on Saturday to miss the rare 54-hole cut. With so many others in excellent form this week, there is no reason to take a flyer on the unknown with his injury.

If you aren’t comfortable betting on him to miss the cut, look to fade him in any H2H matchups your book offers. One I see right now that looks very intriguing is taking Hovland -110 over Morikawa on Bet365.

See you next week for the Genesis Open!

Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.

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