Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview and Tournament Odds May 5-8
Wells Fargo Championship Prediction and Odds
The Wells Fargo Championship takes a one-year departure from its normal home at Quail Hollow in Charlotte to the TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in suburban Washington DC. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s PGA Tour stop.
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| 2022 Wells Fargo Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | May 5-8, 2022 |
| Where: | TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in suburban Washington DC |
| Defending Champ: | Rory McIlroy (At Quail Hollow, Not this course) |
| Current Favorite: | Rory McIlroy (+850 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Wells Fargo Championship Odds Board
Unsurprisingly, Jon Rahm was No. 1 on the Strokes Gained list coming into last week’s Mexico Open, which makes it 11 of 17 tournaments so far in 2022 in which the winner has come from the Top-10 in in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months. So, without further ado…
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
[#7] Rory McIlroy +1.85 (+850) DK
[#42] Russell Henley +1.60 (+3200) FD
[#25] Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.51 (+2100) FD
[#31] Corey Conners +1.48 (+1900) FD
[#40] Seamus Power +1.28 (+3400) FD
[#23] Tyrrell Hatton +1.24 (+3100) FD
[#41] Cameron Young +1.22 (+4100) FD
[#50] Sepp Straka +1.14 (+6500) FD
[#84] Matt Kuchar +1.14 (+5500) FD
[#47] Sergio Garcia +1.12 (+5000) FD
The Wells Fargo Championship Course & Field
From Nick Borrman: Although not a super strong field, it is certainly stronger than we saw last week in Mexico with six players ranked inside the top-26 of the Official World Golf Rankings. The other three not on the above list include Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer and Paul Casey.
Be careful not to look at last year’s results of this event and think that it can help you in figuring out ‘horse for the course’ plays. This year, the tournament has changed venues from its usual stop at Quail Hollow, which is prepping for the President’s Cup this fall, to TPC Potomac in Maryland.
TPC Potomac is no stranger to the PGA Tour having hosted the Booz Allen Classic (formerly Kemper Open) for nearly 20 years ending in 2006 while also hosting the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Those two years are going to be your best look back at anybody with tournament history at this course.
The course is a par 70 featuring just two par 5s, neither of which are really gettable, the shorter of the two coming in at 590 yards with the longer measuring 640 yards. Depending on how they set the tees, the shorter par 5 will be reachable by some guys, but most will have to navigate the par 5s with wedge to try and make birdie. Because of that, don’t expect a very low tournament winner this week.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
With distance unlikely to be a big advantage this week, I’ll focus in on the ball-strikers and iron players which of course is never a bad strategy. Putting can be a bit of an anomaly as most players have limited experience on these greens, if at all.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2100 (FD) | Top-10 +280 (FD)
Still winless on the PGA Tour, that will change sooner rather than later. Fitzy is off a rare missed cut at the RB Heritage in his last start but had finished inside the top-14 in six of his previous seven stroke play events.
He ranks No. 5 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and No. 3 in Total Strokes Gained and owns the seventh-best scoring average on Tour this season. As this is expected to be a higher-scoring event, pars will be a premium and scrambling will likely play a key factor which Fitzpatrick ranks No. 7 in that category.
His only knock is that he ranks No. 134 on distance off the tee at 295 yards but as I already mentioned, I don’t think that will be a major factor this week and the rest of his game is too solid to ignore.
Cameron Young +4100 (FD) | Top-10 +400 (FD)
At 24 years old, this kid has really taken the Tour by storm this season with two runner-ups and a T3 in his last start at the RBC Heritage. That was a very good result as he seemed to be in a little funk with two missed cuts at The Players and the Masters along with failing to make it out of his group at the WGC Dell Match Play in his previous three starts.
Before that though he had made six straight cuts with five of them inside the Top-26, so hopefully that T3 two weeks ago is a sign of things to come. He ranks No. 30 in SG Tee to Green this season and No. 22 in Total SG. His real strength is distance, and although I mentioned it’s not a stat that I believe is critical this week, it certainly won’t hurt.
He also ranks No. 6 in Birdie Average and No. 19 in Scoring Average this season.
BEST BET: Rory McIlroy Top-20 (-150 at Bet365)
It’s hard not to want to get some money on the tournament favorite this week especially after seeing Rahm go wire-to-wire last week as the favorite. He of course is the defending champ, albeit at another venue, so perhaps that doesn’t matter, but he is coming in with some great momentum after that final round 64 at the Masters which vaulted him to a career best solo 2nd finish.
He has just two finishes outside the Top-20 in his last 12 starts worldwide and in a field like this, there is very little doubt his name will be on that leaderboard come Sunday.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Wells Fargo Championship from suburban Washington DC? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Mexico Betting Preview
TPC Potomac has previously hosted 21 PGA Tour events, with Abraham Ancer holding the course record. On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman share their thoughts on this week’s Wells Fargo Championship, including the favorites at the top of the leaderboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.p
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