WGC Dell Match Play Betting Preview and Odds March 23-27
WGC Dell Match Play Betting Preview
The world’s best golfers will go mano a mano this week at the WGC Dell Match Play from the Austin Country Club in Texas. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on some of the featured head-to-head matchups and tournament structure for this once-a-year event.
Stay on top of the latest Golf updates direct from Las Vegas!
| WGC Dell Match Play | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | March 23-27, 2022 |
| Where: | Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas |
| Defending Champ: | Billy Horschel |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+1200 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel Wednesday-Friday; NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
WGC Dell Match Play Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Justin Thomas +2.37 (+1500) FD
Patrick Cantlay +2.14 (+2200) DK
Viktor Hovland +2.03 (+1500) FD
Daniel Berger +2.02 (+2900) FD
Scottie Scheffler +1.83 (+1700) FD
Russell Henley +1.70 (+4600) FD
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.66 (+3600) FD
Jon Rahm +1.65 (+1300) FD
Sungjae Im +1.60 (+4600) FD
Collin Morikawa +1.58 (+1700) FD
The WGC Dell Match Play Course & Field
From Nick Borrman: Just like the NCAA March Madness Tournament, it takes seven rounds of golf for the eventual champion to be crowned, only difference is that it happens in a five-day span.
The tournament kicks off on Wednesday with 16 groups of four playing round-robin on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The group winners then move on to a single-elimination tournament in which the round of 16 and the quarterfinals are played on Saturday and the semifinals and finals played on Sunday.
If players are tied coming out of group play, there will be a sudden-death playoff. Last year Sergio Garcia won his group with an ACE on the 4th playoff hole over Lee Westwood.
Match play is clearly a unique format where the favorites often don’t make it out of group play. There are a ton of betting opportunities unique to this tournament including wagering on group winners. Big names like Tiger, Rory and DJ have won this event, but you also have a lot of mid-level players finishing the week on top including Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Bubba Watson, Matt Kuchar, Hunter Mahan, Luke Donald and Ian Poulter. Last year’s semifinal match saw Matt Kuchar defeat Victor Perez to give you an idea of some surprises that can happen in this event.
When betting outrights this week, pay attention to the bracket paths. You don’t want to bet three guys in the same quadrant of the bracket as it’s guaranteed you will not have more than one remaining for the semifinals. Instead, spread your outright plays around evenly between the quadrants and who knows, you just might find all your outright wagers in the semifinals guaranteeing yourself the win.
Sixty-four of the top 69 players in the world are in the field this week. A couple big names are missing including PLAYERS champion Cam Smith, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English and Phil Mickelson.
Nick’s Picks
I already mentioned my outright strategy for the week and there are several good value plays when betting group winners as well.
Max Homa +6000 (DK) | Group 8 Winner +230 (DK)
First things first, I love Homa to win his group over Dustin Johnson, Matthew Wolff and Mackenzie Hughes. Homa’s worst finish in his last four starts is a T17 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational while also finishing T10 at The Genesis and T13 at The Players. Homa ranks inside the Top-30 in SG Off the Tee, SG Tee to Green and Total SG while also raking #36 in SG Approach.
The group favorite, Dustin Johnson, did win this event back in 2017, but has failed to make it out of group play in each of the last three years and he isn’t playing to his former No. 1 ranking. Homa would then face the winner of Group 9 which includes DeChambeau, who hasn’t played an event in what feels like a year, Gooch, Westwood and Bland. No real danger there, before possibly facing Rahm in the quarterfinals, assuming he wins Group 1 and his round of 16 matchup.
If he were to make it that far, his odds would be reduced significantly, and we could easily hedge some, or all, of our wager if we are not comfortable with our position.
Sergio Garcia to Win Group 2 +250 (FD)
This is one of my favorite plays of the week. Sergio has proven to be one of the best match play players of all-time. Not only has he won his group each of the last three years, including the playoff ACE last year I already mentioned, but is the all-time leader in Ryder Cup points.
Sergio has been around forever but he continues to play at a very high level, making the cut in eight straight events between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. He ranks 4th on Tour in Strokes Gained Off the Tee which is an important metric in match play. Consistently putting yourself in play off the tee can wear on your opponent and is a clear reason why he has been so good in match play over the years. He ranked No. 3 on Tour in that category in each of the last two seasons as well.
Garcia is up against Morikawa, Kokrak and MacIntyre in Group 2. Clearly Morikawa supplies the biggest threat, but he hasn’t been putting up the consistent results that you would expect from World No. 2 including finishing T68 last week at the Valspar, on the heels of a missed cut at The PLAYERS.
Lucas Herbert Top Australian +550 (DK)
The other Aussies competing in the event include Adam Scott, Marc Leishman and Min Woo Lee. Scott’s group seems like a crapshoot with Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Keegan Bradley. Any of those guys could beat up on one another. Leishman is in a tough group with Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner (past winner and Runner-up) and Luke List, a PGA Tour winner less than two months ago. Leishman may struggle to find a win in that group.
Then we have Herbert in a group with Finau who has been terrible so far in 2022, Takumi Kanaya, a solid Japanese player, but easily beatable and Xander Schauffele who may struggle in the group as he simply can’t make putts right now and that is what it all comes down to when you are talking about match play. You probably forgot that Herbert lifted his first PGA Tour title in Bermuda just this past October and is more than capable of winning his group.
Players to Avoid
From Andy Lang: Louis Oosthuizen – Has a long track record of amazing finishes at this tournament, but his finishing positions this year have gotten worse every week as he’s finished 14th, 30th, 42nd and 62nd this year. Last year he finished 61st here, and add to that he’s got Paul Casey and Alex Noren in his group who have been solid this year. He’ll be a fade for me.
Colin Morikawa – He missed the cut two weeks ago due to being in the group with the horrible weather, but rebounding with a 68th place finish isn’t good. He’s really becoming the ultimate feast or famine. In his entire PGA Tour career he has 13 finishes between 20th and 40th, and only two of those are within the last two seasons.
He’s played here once, that was last year and finished 42nd. He might be a really nice fade against Sergio Garcia, Robert Macintyre and Jason Kokrak in his group.
Jon Rahm – Rinse and repeat with not betting on Rahm right now as his putting isn’t sharp. He’s played here four times finishing 5th last year, then 24th, 52nd and 2nd. His best finish in his last three tournaments is 17th, and he’s still the betting favorite and most expensive on DraftKings. There’s no value supporting him right now.
DraftKings Darlings
Lee Westwood ($6300) – He hasn’t been great this year, but he’s had a week rest which he prefers, and he finished 18th here last year. He can beat everyone in his group: Richard Bland hasn’t been good and has never played here, Talor Gooch has missed the cut in two out of three tournaments, and who knows what we get with Dechambeau this week.
Max Homa ($7700) – DJ, Mackenzie Hughes and Matthew Wolff all have big red flags coming into this week, so why not take a guy who finished 18th here last year and has four top 17 finishes in a row coming into this week.
Cameron Young ($7000) – He missed the cut last tourney, but that was with the crazy weather issues that knocked a lot of guys out. Before that he has three top 16 finishes in a row, and Rahm is the big name in the group that I’m too worried about.
Add these three to the Darlings for my lineup of the week:
Daniel Berger ($9800)
Xander Schauffele ($9600)
Brooks Koepka ($9400)
WGC Dell Match Play Bet Bet
Xander Schauffele Win Group 7: He has the easiest group as the highest seeded player in my opinion. He has Tony Finau in the group who is having a disaster year with no top 20 finishes in standard tournaments, and he has Takumi Kanaya and Lucas Herbert who have never played this tournament, Takumi has made the cut one time this year, and Lucas Herbert has three finishes outside of the top 60 in his last four tournaments.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s WGC Dell Match Play event? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | WGC Dell Match Play Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the WGC Dell Match Play from the Austin Country Club. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
