WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview Feb 10-13
WM Phoenix Open Predictions and Odds
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s WM Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| WM Phoenix Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | February 10-13 |
| Where: | TPC Scottsdale |
| Defending Champ: | Brooks Koepka |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+600 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
WM Phoenix Open Odds Board
Last week at Pebble Beach we saw another winner ranked inside the Top-10 Strokes Gained Tee to Green or Approach coming into the tournament. Tom Hoge ranked 5th and 6th respectively in those two metrics. Here is the current top-10 in this week’s WM Phoenix Open field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their current betting odds from DraftKings:
Daniel Berger +2.29 (+2500)
Justin Thomas +1.85 (+1000)
Patrick Cantlay +1.69 (+1600)
Luke List +1.66 (+6000)
Jon Rahm +1.55 (+600)
Hideki Matsuyama +1.48 (+1400)
Russell Henley +1.45 (+3000)
Sam Burns +1.41 (+3000)
Scottie Scheffler +1.31 (+2200)
Ton Finau +1.30 (+3500)
The WM Phoenix Open Course and Field
From Nick Borrman: What’s not to say about this event. Let’s start with this, TPC Scottsdale has the largest crowds of any single day sporting event in the world, several times surpassing over 200,000 fans in attendance in one day. Every golfer in the world knows this event and many people that attend this event, don’t even watch the actual golf that is occurring.
It’s a party for most with Arizona State students in full attendance, chugging beers like a frat party and creating the most raucous atmosphere at the most famous hole in golf. I’m speaking of course about the Par-3 16th hole where, as a player, you better have the nerves to step up and hit a good golf shot or be ready for the boos coming your way.
My absolute favorite golf highlight video came on this hole 25 years ago which of course was a young 21-year-old Tiger Woods, thrice a winner on the PGA Tour already in just nine starts, but not yet a major champion (that would happen three months later at Augusta). He did the impossible, as he always seemed to do, and hit a hole-in-one. What happened after was absolute mayhem and unlikely to ever be seen again. If you have never seen the video, Google it. I promise it is well worth your time.
As far as the field, this is no doubt the best field we have seen so far this year with 15 of the Top-20 teeing it up in Scottsdale and it’s hard to imagine a longshot coming through this week with so many big names likely in contention. Temperatures are supposed to be a balmy 80 degrees all week with sunshine and hardly any wind.
Nick’s Top Picks
There is little reason to stray from what has proven to be a winning recipe so far in 2022, so here are my favorites to be in contention on Sunday.
Daniel Berger +2500 | +200 Top-10
It’s a little worrisome that Berger WD last week citing his back, but a healthy Berger is too good to ignore, so let’s hope he is just that.
Berger is #1 in this field in both Strokes Gained Approach and Strokes Gained Tee to Green by a wide margin and has finished in the Top-20 in all three starts this year. Granted two of those were in small fields at the Hero (T-7) and the Sentry TOC (T-5), it follows a longer trend where he hasn’t missed the weekend since the Masters last April.
In seven starts at this event, Berger does have two MCs, but he also has four finishes of T-11 or better. As is usually the case with Berger, if he can put together just an average putting week, he will have a chance on Sunday.
Seamus Power +4000 | +300 Top-10
Power stormed out of the gates last week at Pebble Beach to the tune of a tournament record, five shot lead through 36-holes and he didn’t even play the easiest course yet in Monterrey Peninsula. However, he had a terrible Saturday and lost the lead but still had a chance on Sunday, just couldn’t get anything going.
He still finished T-9 which is his 5th straight Top-15 finish. On the season, he has two MCs in ten starts with his worst finish when playing all four rounds a T-21. He ranks 4th in scoring average and 16th in Greens in Regulation and falls just outside the Top-10 in Total Strokes gained, ranking #11 in this field at +1.33 per round, gaining strokes in all 5 statistical categories.
Brendan Steele Top-10 +1100 | Top-20 +450
Last week’s longshot on Hayden Buckley was close as he was in the Top-10 after 36-holes, but faded on the weekend. This week I’ll ride with Brendan Steele, all based on his past history at this event, which is very good. Granted, he has missed the cut in two of the last three years, those are his only MCs in 11 career starts with six Top-20 finishes including four Top-10s. If we were getting 11-1 on our money and bet that blindly on all 11 starts here, we would be up a cool 37 units.
He hasn’t shown much of anything so far this season, aside from his Runner-up at the Zozo Championship in October, but this is a horse for the course play and sometimes just having great course history is all you need to elevate your game.
Golfers to Watch
From Andy Lang: Bubba Watson – He looked great last week finishing second to Varner at the Saudi International, and this will be his 2022 debut on a course he loves. He finished 22nd last year and 3rd and 4th the two years previous. I think he’s underpriced on daily fantasy sites, and I hope to get a good head to head matchup with him.
Sam Burns – Don’t panic about him missing the cut at the Farmers. He had three bad holes right in a row, and missed the cut by two shots. He was playing great golf going into that round, and I chalk it up to a bad day. He finished 22nd here last year, and ranks top 25 in Strokes Gained off the tee, approach, tee to green and total.
Golfers to Fade
Tom Hoge – After getting the win, he’s probably on cloud 9, and I see a let down spot. Fading random winners of tournaments the next week they play has been a good strategy for me over the years, and Hoge is inconsistent. Last week he finished top 4 in Strokes Gained putting, approach, tee to green and total. The putting stat is very unlike him as he’s 127th on tour this season putting and last year was 130th. He’s had two top two finishes and two missed cuts in 2022, he missed the cut last year, I’ll be fading him.
Brooks Koepka – 2022 hasn’t gotten off to a good start as Koepka finished 28th out of 37 golfers at the Tourney of Champions, and then missed the cut at the Farmers. He’s not hitting fairways or greens, and his putting is 125th this season so I’ll be fading the defending champ of this tourney.
WM Phoenix Open DFS Bargains
Sahith Theegala – He’s made the cut in four straight weeks and is only $6700.
Nate Lashley – Finished 28th last week and has finished 17th and 3rd here the last two years. $6700.
Adam Hadwin – Two top 25s the last three tourneys, and he’s made the cut every year since 2016. $6900.
Billy Horschel – Made the cut here in eight out of nine years, and hasn’t missed a PGA Tour cut since June of 2021. $7900.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s WM Phoenix Open tournament? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | WM Phoenix Open Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features head-to-head matchup odds from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the lines for this week’s WM Phoenix Open matchups from your desktop or phone.
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