ZOZO Championship Prediction and Betting Odds | Oct 13-16
ZOZO Championship Betting Preview
Some of the world’s top players will head to Japan for this weekend’s ZOZO Championship at the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman takes a look at the odds board for this unique 78-man field, and dives into some head-to-head matchups and best bets for this weekend’s PGA Tour event.
| 2022 ZOZO Championship | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | October 13-16, 2022 |
| Where: | Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club |
| Defending Champ: | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Current Favorite(s): | Xander Schauffele +800 at DraftKings |
| TV: | Golf Channel all Four Days |
Shriners Children’s Open Recap
One of the youngest and brightest stars on the PGA Tour won for the second time in four starts as Tom Kim bested the field last week in Las Vegas. Of course, you could argue that Patrick Cantlay lost the tournament as much as Kim won it with his triple-bogey on 18 as both players came to the tee box tied at -24. But nonetheless, the golf community is rejoicing as the 20-year-old Kim continues to show why he’s a rising star.
ZOZO Championship Odds Board
A normal PGA Tour even has 144 participants, but this week’s ZOZO Championship field in Japan is reduced to 78 players. So it should be a little easier to pick an outright winner, right? Not so much. Realistically, we could make a case for half of this field to be at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
The formula that has proven to be true in 2022 is identifying the ‘hot’ players. That is, those that are in the top-10 in the field in Strokes Gained over the last six months coming in. Up to this point, 23 of 37 (62%) winners on the PGA Tour this year have fit that mold and while Kim last week was technically outside of that, ranking No. 13 coming in, he was No. 2 over the last three months. So last week’s win was not much of a surprise.
[OWGR] Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months:
[#6] Xander Schauffele +2.37 (+850) FD
[#20] Sungjae Im +1.96 (+1100) B365 | FD
[#16] Cameron Young +1.69 (+1800) B365 | DK
[#9] Collin Morikawa +1.44 (+1600) DK | MGM
[#29] Corey Conners +1.42 (+2800) B365 | MGM
[#41] Mito Pereira +1.28 (+4000) PB
[#19] Hideki Matsuyama +1.26 (+1600) DK
[#15] Joohyung “Tom” Kim +1.26 (+1600) FD | DK | PB
[#30] Tommy Fleetwood +1.25 (+3500) DK
[#44] Keegan Bradley +1.20 (+3700) FD
Notables
[#11] Viktor Hovland +1.03 (+2100) FD (+1.34 L3 months)
[#28] Tyrrell Hatton +1.01 (+2700) FD (+1.61 L3 months)
*(odds shopped from Bet365, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet & BetMGM)
The ZOZO Championship Course & Field
The ZOZO Championship is the first invitational field event of the season featuring just 78 players with a guarantee of four rounds (no cut). This will be the third time that Narashino serves as host with the first in 2019 and again last year as they 2020 edition was held in California due to travel restrictions during the pandemic.
The field reserves space for the top 60 in last season’s FedexCup standings (although clearly not full attended by those) while also featuring 15 of the best JGTO (Japan Golf Tour) players.
Narashino CC is a unique par-70 with a front nine 34 and back nine 36 as the course features five par 3s and three par 5s, with overall length at just over 7,000 yards.
Being in Japan, the course does not feature ShotLink, so there is no Strokes Gained data. However, we can look to both previous winners to help lay the groundwork to winning here. Tiger Woods and Hideki Matsuyama are both elite iron players, with the latter leading the field in greens in regulation. Mastuyama also finished second in scrambling as the greens have proven harder to hit than most stops on Tour.
Besides the uniqueness of par, the course also features 36 greens as each hole has two greens in play. The local rule is that players will get a free drop no nearer the hole should they land on the wrong putting green.
Rain is likely during the opening round while Friday thru Sunday look dry. Temperatures should reach the low to mid-70s and there is very little wind in the forecast.
Finally, because the event is taking place in Japan, pay attention to the starting times. Local time is 13 hours ahead of Eastern Time in the US, so first tee time will be around 8:00pm on Wednesday evening in the States.
Nick’s ZOZO Championship Betting Favorites
Only previous Masters’ winners have lifted the title here, but with exactly one in the field (last year’s champ Matsuyama) that trend is likely to be broken. Instead, focus of elite iron players this week to get around the course the best.
Outright Winner: Sungjae Im +1100 (Bet365 or FanDuel)
Speaking of elite iron players, Im ranked inside the top-10 in greens in regulation last year hitting 70.8% with only one player in this field finishing higher than him (Corey Conners). But what’s even better, is how great Im has been of late. He finished seventh last week at the Shriners, which was his sixth-straight start finishing 15th or better including three runner-ups.
Sungjae did not play here last year, but finished third in 2019 after shooting 1-over on Thursday. If he gets off to a decent start this time around, he will likely be in the mix on Sunday.
Top-20: Cameron Young -140 (Bet365 or DraftKings)
With the limited field this week, odds are much shorter overall, but one guy that I think provides some decent value this week is sophomore Cameron Young who is bound to win sooner rather than later.
One angle to pay attention to this week is to avoid those guys that teed it up last week in Vegas. Not only is it a long trip, but it’s a shorter turn-around with 13 hours of time lost. While I already mentioned Im who did play last week, it’s always good to diversify your portfolio.
Young finished runner-up five times last season while adding two more third place finishes proving the guy likes to be in contention on Sunday. Cam is, by definition, a bomber, as he was third on Tour in driving distance and second in Strokes Gained off the tee.
While distance isn’t necessary this week, having wedge in your hand more than your opponent is never a bad thing. Because of that, Young finished 21st in proximity to the hole and sixth in birdie average.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s ZOZO Championship in Japan? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Golf Betting Tips
As sports betting continues to grow across the globe, few sports have seen a bump in wagering interest quite like golf. The golf betting market used to be simple: Pick the winner of the tournament. But today, bettors are able to tap into a variety of markets: Head-to–head tournament matchups, round-by-round matchups, and over/under round scores. Kelly Stewart sits down with professional bettor Andy Lang and PGA Tour professional Nick Borrman to go over their favorite golf betting tips.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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