2022 Kentucky Derby Betting Preview and Odds
2022 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds
With an impressive win in last month’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Zandon has opened as the 3-1 morning line favorite in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. WagerTalk horse racing expert Marco D’Angelo shares his thoughts on the 20-horse field.
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| 2022 Kentucky Derby | Kentucky Derby Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | Saturday, May 7 6:57 PM ET / 3:57 PM PT |
| Where: | Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY |
| Defending Champ: | Mandaloun (Medina Spirit Disqualified) |
| Current Favorite: | Zandon (3-1) |
| TV: | NBC |
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Kentucky Derby Field
The letter behind the morning line odds is Marco’s personal grade for each horse: 1) Mo Donegal – 10-1 Morning Line (B): Mo Donegal stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Wood Memorial. He sat next-to-last most of the race and came flying late to just get up by a neck. He never left the rail while making his move saving ground and got out late to pass the pace setting in the final strides. This horse is improving but having Post 1 in a 20-horse field is not ideal as it will be tough to work out a clean trip with his come from behind style. Mo Donegal is a contender to hit the ticket. 2) Happy Jack – 30-1 Morning Line (D): Happy Jack is in over his head here as even though he has two third-place finishes in Kentucky Derby prep races, both were distant third’s beaten by 11 and 12 lengths in small fields at Santa Anita. His speed figures aren’t fast enough to compete with this field. Happy Jack is a toss. 3) Epicenter – 7-2 Morning Line (A): Full disclosure back in January as I said on The Pony Pundits I bet Epicenter at 33-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool, so clearly I am rooting for him. He has done nothing wrong winning four of his last five races. In the loss he got beat by a head from a fast-closing horse on the outside after Epicenter had a big stretch duel and finally put that horse away but couldn’t hold off the deep closer Call Me Midnight who got up in the final strides to win by a head. Epicenter can set the pace or sit just off of it. I expect him to break well from the gate and sit just in behind the early pace. Epicenter is a one of the Horses to beat. Epicenter is a top contender. 4) Summer is Tomorrow – 30-1 Morning Line (D): A 30-1 morning line is generous as I feel he should be 50-1. Horses that ship in from Dubai have not fared well in the Kentucky Derby. His style will get him in trouble here as he likes to be on or near the lead. He led his last race turning for home and was easily beaten by Crown Pride who is also in this race. I’m not a big fan of Crown Pride so clearly I’m not a fan of Summer is Tomorrow. Summer is Tomorrow is a toss. 5) Smile Happy – 20-1 Morning Line (B): Smile Happy will be sitting in the second flight of horses in a stalking position. This is the third start off the layoff following two second-place finishes and improving speed figs. In his final prep Race looked to be the winner at the top of stretch but was run down by an improving Zandon. Smile Happy did put up a career best speed figure but he was soundly beaten by Zandon. Smile Happy’s Breeding says he is not bred to get the distance as his Sire Run Happy was a sprinter but has hit the board in all four career starts in route races. I don’t think he can win but he can hit the ticket underneath. Smile Happy is a contender to hit the ticket. 6) Messier – 8-1 Morning Line (B): Here is one of the former Bob Baffert horses that will take a lot of play. His Santa Derby Race was interesting in the fact that he sat behind the favorite Forbidden Kingdom throughout the race and went right by him and looked to be the winner before being rundown by the other former Bob Baffert horse Taiba. Has the tactical speed to get a great trip on or just behind the lead but here’s my question. Messier is 8-1 on the ML and the horse that soundly beat him Taiba is 12-1 and that was only the second career start for Taiba so you have to think Taiba improves off that race. Messier is a major player in race but I don’t think he wins it but has to be used in your exactas, trifectas and superfecta wagers. Messier is a contender to hit the ticket. 7) Crown Pride – 20-1 Morning Line (C): Crown Pride is the Japan-bred horse who won the UAE Derby in Dubai and as I stated with the No. 4 Horse these horses who ship over from Dubai just haven’t had success in the Kentucky Derby. His style will have him sitting mid-pack in a stalking position which if a speed duel develops he could make a run to land on the bottom end of the trifecta or superfecta. Crown Pride is a longshot that could land on the superfecta. 8) Charge It – 20-1 Morning Line (B): I don’t understand the morning line on this horse. Charge It has made three career starts. The first two races were maiden races in which he finished second in his debut and then broke his maiden in his second start. Off of that maiden win he was thrown in the deep end of the pool in the Florida Derby. He ran second to White Abarrio who I bet that day. Even though I cashed a winning ticket on White Abarrio I was more impressed with Charge It’s performance facing stakes company for the first time. Charge It showed his inexperience as he was all over the track in the stretch and was lunging in and still finished a solid second. If he learned and improved from that experience he has a license to make a big jump on Saturday at a price. Charge It has one of the best jockeys in the country in Luis Saez. Charge It is a live longshot. 9) Tiz the Bomb – 30-1 Morning Line (C): After starting the year with a horrible performance in the Holy Bull Stakes beaten by 20 lengths, he rebounded with two big wins the last being the Jeff Ruby Stakes. He put up a big speed figure in that race and appears to be on the improve. My problem is that I didn’t think the Jeff Ruby Stakes had that tough of a field and his style may have him too far back and will have to deal with a lot of traffic. Tiz the Bomb could be running late if there is a fast pace to grab a spot on bottom end of ticket but will have to deal with the traffic of a 20-horse field where he will be in the second half of in the early going. Tiz The Bomb is a toss. 10) Zandon – 3-1 Morning Line (A): Zandon is the now horse as he only has four starts – two last year and two this year. Zandon ran a huge race in the Blue Grass coming from 11th to win going away. Zandon picked up Flavian Prat for the Blue Grass and will have him again today. Prat had a masterful ride getting him thru traffic. It will be a little tougher navigating thru a 20-horse field but this horse is improving and this is the third start off the layoff which is always the best of the form cycle. The horse has been working well in the morning and will be the “wise guy” horse come Saturday. His speed fig from the Blue Grass puts him as the horse to beat but his racing style is the only thing that is a concern. Prat is a patient jockey and will navigate him thru the traffic. He is a major player in the Derby and one of the top three horses in field. Zandon is one of the top contenders. 11) Pioneer of Medina – 30-1 Morning Line (D): Pioneer of Medina likes to be on or near the lead but since jumping up to graded stakes company has faded to second and third in his two races. Although Epicenter was the horse who won both of those races I just don’t see him hanging on in the stretch against this field. He picks up Joe Bravo for the Derby which is a down grade from Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez who rode him in his two stake races Pioneer of Medina is a toss. 12) Taiba – 12-1 Morning Line (A): If you like Messier you have to Love Taiba as in only his second start he blew away Messier in the stretch of The Santa Anita Derby. What this horse did in only his second career start was impressive and with only two career starts should take another major step forward today. History is against this horse for winning the Derby as horses who don’t race at 2 don’t win the Derby but Justify broke that myth a few years ago. This is the other former Bob Baffert horse so even though Bob is suspended from racing at Churchill he still will be a factor in the outcome. His speed figs say he can win. His racing style will have him either on or just off the lead and should get a good break from Post 12. Taiba is a major player in this race. Taiba is one of the top contenders. 13) Simplification – 20-1 Morning Line (C): Simplification is an honest race horse hitting the board in six of seven starts. However I feel he is just a notch below the top horses in this field. He finished behind both White Abarrio and Charge It in the Florida Derby with a perfect trip. His speed figs say he isn’t fast enough to win but could hit the ticket underneath. Simplification could run on the bottom of superfecta. 14) Barber Road – 30-1 Morning Line (B): Barber Road is always flying at the end of races but has been a bridesmaid more than he has been a bride as he has four second place finishes in eight starts. The problem here is his racing style as he is always coming from the clouds which is not what you want in a 20-horse field. He had all kinds of trouble in the Arkansas Derby and still wound up second. He will be a huge number and If they go stupid on front end he could be flying late for a big piece. Barber Road is a live longshot. 15) White Abarrio – 10-1 Morning Line (B): White Abarrio is a perfect 2-for-2 this year but as I said in my analysis of Charge It, even though I cashed a winning ticket on White Abarrio in the Florida Derby, I was more impressed with Charge It’s performance facing stakes company for the first time. White Abarrio has won four of his five career starts but this will only be his second race outside of Gulfstream Park. His only loss was a respectable third right here at Churchill Downs in the Jockey Club Stakes as a 2 yr old. Trainer Safire Joseph puts up big numbers at Gulfstream Park but doesn’t have the same win % when he races elsewhere. Tyler Gaffalione is 2 for 2 riding this colt and has been one of the Top jocks in the country over the last year. Tyler will have to use him leaving the gate to find his spot as not to get caught wide in the first turn. I don’t think he wins this race but you can’t pitch him either. White Abarrio should be used in exactas and trifectas. 16) Cyberknife – 20-1 Morning Line (C): Cyberknife is trained by Brad Cox so that is enough to give this colt a good look as Cox has dominated the big stakes over the last few years and he has this one peaking at the right time. Cyberknife has speed to get away from the gate and then sit just off the pace. Problem is he has post 16 in a 20 horse field which if he doesn’t break well he’s stuck with a wide trip or he uses to much horse trying to get position before that first turn. I don’t like him to win but could run on bottom of the ticket. Cyberknife could run on the bottom of superfecta. 17) Classic Causeway – 30-1 Morning Line (D): Classic Causeway raced his worst race in the Florida Derby stopping badly after setting the pace to the half. I didn’t like him in the Florida Derby and I don’t like him here. In his two wins this year he wired what I thought were weaker competition. His racing style is go to the lead and with post 17 I feel will be used hard to get to the lead which will be his demise in the stretch. Classic Causeway is a toss. 18) Tawny Port – 30-1 Morning Line (D): I made a nice score on Tawny Port in his last race as he needed that win to get into Derby but now this will be third start in five weeks which I feel is too much to ask this early. Yes Tawny Port is trained by Brad Cox but post 18 and had to go all out just to get here has me looking elsewhere. Tawny Port is a toss. 19) Zozos – 20-1 Morning Line (C): Zozos is another horse who is running against history as he didn’t race at 2 but did get a January start and raced well in all three of his starts this year. After two solid wins trainer Brad Cox put Zozos into the Louisiana Derby and he did all the heavy lifting setting the fractions only to be 2nd best when Epicenter blew past him in the stretch. For his first start against stakes company he ran well and has a license to improve here. The problem is he has to break from Post 19 and there is a lot of speed to his immediate inside. If he gets to the top easily he could be a factor but most likely he will be used too hard early and will have to settle for 3rd or 4th at best. Zozos could run on the bottom of superfecta. 20) Ethereal Road – 30-1 Morning Line (D): D Wayne Lucas is a Hall of Fame Trainer and Ethereal Road has improved his speed figure in five-straight starts. However Ethereal Road is another horse that is making his third start in five weeks and has Post 20. That is not a good combination for sure. Breaking from Post 20 Ethereal Road will be too far back to make a serious run as this horse really hasn’t shown any gate speed. Unless they run really fast fractions up front I don’t see this one being a threat for anything more than the bottom end of the Superfecta. Ethereal Road is a toss.
The Pony Pundits
In this week’s episode of The Pony Pundits: Joe, Marco and Sig take a deep dive into the top ten horses in the Kentucky Derby points pool: Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Cyberknife, Crown Pride, Taiba, Simplification and Smile Happy. We take a look at each horse’s pros and cons heading into the run for the Triple Crown.
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