Kentucky Derby 2025: Top 5 Contenders to Bet On

2025 Kentucky Derby Picks, Derby Horses Predictions! The Only Guide You Need!

Marco D’Angelo, WagerTalk’s local horse expert, shares his top five contenders to bet on for the Kentucky Derby, making Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks and Predictions!

The Kentucky Derby is not just a race; it’s an opportunity for bettors to find value, predict upsets, and secure big wins.

With the field for 2025 taking shape, Marco D’Angelo from Wager Talk TV highlighted five prime contenders in a recent preview. This guide will dive deep into these contenders, offering betting tips and strategies for success!

Give our KBO predictions and best MLB picks a look too!

UPDATED ON April 29, 2025 at 10:21 AM ET

Kentucky Derby 2025 Top Contenders

Journalism: The Tactical Favorite (3-1)

Journalism stands tall as the early favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Trained by Mike McCarthy and set to be ridden by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism has secured four wins out of five career starts, impressively winning his last four consecutively.

Betting Tips:

Caution for Out-of-State Debut: Note that this will be his first race outside California, which could introduce an unknown element.

Trust Tactical Speed: Journalism’s ability to control his position during the race makes him less vulnerable to traffic issues that plague the Derby’s crowded field.

Consider in Straight Win Bets: With the highest buyer speed figure among contenders, Journalism is a strong candidate for win bets despite likely lower odds.

Sandman: The Stone-Cold Closer (6-1)

Sandman, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Jose Ortiz, brings a powerful finishing kick to the Derby. With nine career starts, Sandman is a seasoned competitor.

Betting Tips:

Monitor Pace Scenarios: If pre-race analysis indicates a heated early pace, Sandman’s chances improve dramatically.

Use in Exotic Wagers: Deep closers like Sandman excel in picking up pieces late. He’s a must-use in Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.

Beware of Win Bets: Horses coming from deep often need perfect conditions — fast early fractions and a clear trip — which can be risky to rely on.

Burnham Square: The Consistent Finisher (12-1)

Burnham Square, under trainer Ian Wilks and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., has hit the board in five of six career starts, including a notable victory at the Holy Bull Stakes.

Betting Tips:

Factor in Closing Style: Like Sandman, Burnham Square will need a clean trip and honest fractions to maximize his finishing kick.

Include in Value Tickets: Burnham Square’s closing style mirrors that of last year’s near-miss Sierra Leon, making him a strong candidate for filling out Trifectas and Superfectas.

Support Experienced Jockeys: Brian Hernandez Jr.’s Derby experience (winning with Mystic Dan) is an asset that could make a critical difference in navigating the crowded Derby field.

Grande (20-1)

Repole Stable’s Grande, ridden by John Velazquez, currently ranks 16th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 50 points.

Betting Tips:

Consider Race-Day Maturity: Grande is an interesting horse as he has just 3 career starts, but he has improved in each start, and his Beyer speed figures went from 83 to 87 and then 97 in his last race.

He was beaten by 3 1/2 lengths in the Wood Memorial by Rodriguez, but two key things to note: Rodriguez was left alone on the front end in what were very modest fractions.

Secondly, Grande was caught wide the entire race and was able to still close to be second. Closing ground from behind into slow fractions is hard to do, and when you are traveling a further distance because of how wide you were, it is even harder.

Then consider you did all of that in your 3rd career start facing Graded stakes company for the 1st time makes it all the more impressive.

Bet on Potential Upside: He also gets Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez back, who rode him in his first 2 races, both wins.

He didn’t make his racing debut until Jan 11th but has really done a lot in a short period of time. He has enough tactical speed to break from the gate and sit off of what should be fast fractions with all the speed in this race.

Back in Win and Place Pools: Drawing Post 10 is perfect for his racing style. The only knock is that history says horses coming out of the Wood Memorial don’t win the Kentucky Derby, but this horse is clearly heading in the right direction at the right time and will be a nice price.

Sovereignty: The Underrated Closer (5-1)

Bill Mott trains Sovereignty, with Junior Alvarado taking the reins. With two wins and two seconds from five starts, Sovereign enters off a strong closing second in the Florida Derby.

Betting Tips:

Correlate with Tapen Street Performance: If you like Tappan Street’s chances (who narrowly beat Sovereignty in the Florida Derby), Sovereignty is a logical complementary bet.

Play in Exactas and Trifectas: Sovereignty’s late charge potential makes him a prime candidate to spice up exotic bets.

Look for Value: Sovereignty will likely go off at a longer price than other top contenders, offering attractive payouts.

Kentucky Derby EXPERT PICKS:

Going to Bet the Kentucky Derby? Ride along with WagerTalk’s Horse Racing Expert Marco D’Angelo. Check out Marco’s full video playlist of Kentucky Derby previews here.

BUY MARCO’s PICKS! Marco actually Owns, Breeds and Races horses and has done so since 1986. So when Marco shares his selections you are getting information from someone that knows the sport from the Inside.

Strategic Betting Recommendations for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

1. Emphasize Tactical Speed

Given the Derby’s chaotic nature with a 20-horse field, horses like Journalism and Tapen Street, who can stay close to the pace without being pressured, have a tactical advantage. Focus win bets on horses with positional versatility.

2. Lean on Experienced Jockeys

Riders like Brian Hernandez Jr., who have navigated the Derby’s unique challenges before, bring a level of assurance that newer jockeys may lack. Give extra weight to horses piloted by seasoned riders.

3. Build Deep Exotic Tickets

Given the likelihood of chaos and upsets, use horses like Sandman, Burnham Square, and Sovereign in deeper Trifecta and Superfecta tickets. These closers can pass tiring horses late and inflate payouts.

4. Monitor Pace Projections

Pre-race analysis should focus on early pace expectations. A hot pace would elevate the chances of Sandman, Burnham Square, and Sovereign; a moderate pace would favor Journalism and Tapen Street.

5. Manage Bankroll Wisely

Avoid overcommitting to one horse in win bets. Instead, spread investments across win/place bets on Journalism and Tapen Street while investing heavier in exotic combinations featuring the late runners.