Sierra Leone Predictions, Picks, & Odds – Kentucky Derby Horse Analysis in 2024
Hi I’m Marco D’Angelo I have owned and Bred Race Horses since 1989 and I’m going to be Previewing this Year’s Kentucky Derby Horses today let’s look at Sierra Leone! Watch Marco’s video below.
Sierra Leone Stats
155 Points – Trainer Chad Brown Jockey Tyler Gaffalione
2.3 Million Dollar Yearling Purchase
4 career starts 3 Wins 1 second
Sierra Leone Is the Best Horse in the Field, But Might Slip Up at The Kentucky Derby
This is the perfect number of Races leading up to the Derby as he had 2 foundation races at 2 and 2 races at 3 improving in each race and to be peaking on the 1st Saturday in May.
This is his Race to lose so if he gets beat what gets him beat in the Derby? Sierra Leone’s style is not the Best for the Kentucky Derby as he is a stone cold closer and although he has been able to swoop past every field in the stretch so far The Kentucky Derby is different and here is why.
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Trouble Spots for Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby
In the Derby closers have two main obstacles to over come.
First you have to have an honest pace because if they go a slow first half mile you will not be able to make up the needed ground coming from behind. We have seen horses basically steal the Derby by being left alone on the lead going slow fractions then holding off the closers Authentic did that in 2020 and then Medina Spirit did 2021 but was later Disqualified for a testing positive for a performance enhancing drug.
But in 2021 Rich Strike came from last to Win after there was a wicked pace in the race the 1st 3/4 of the race. That race set up perfect for a closer.
But even if it’s a fast pace a closer has a second obstacle to over come and that is traffic. It’s a 20 horse field which means you have to navigate thru more horses and sometimes once you get rolling and are making your move you run up on a slower horse but there is another horse outside of you and you have to tap the brakes or in horse racing terms check your horse and lose all momentum.
Don’t want to be wide in both turns as you want to save as much ground as you can but sometimes that will get you locked in.
So, Can Sierra Leone Win the Kentucky Derby in 2024?
Do I think SIERRA LEONE can win Absolutely but he is going to need a great ride by Tyler Gaffalione and the added distance of a 1 1/4 will be to his liking.
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