2022 Home Run Derby Picks, Predictions and Odds

Home Run Derby Participants

Pete Alonso enters the Home Run Derby attempting to be the first ever player to win three straight titles. He’s the first to win back-to-back titles since Yoenis Cespedes in 2013 and 2014.

He’s the #2 seed facing off against #7 seed Ronald Acuña Jr. in the first round. The other first round matchups include #1 Kyle Schwarber vs #8 Albert Pujols, #3 Corey Seager vs #6 Julio Rodriguez and #4 Juan Soto vs #5 Jose Ramirez.

Kyle Schwarber (+300)

Schwarber comes into the Home Run Derby as the player with the most home runs on the season in the field with 29. Dodger Stadium doesn’t favor left or right handed hitting as the dimensions are even around the park.

It’s 330 to left or right field and 385 to both left-center and right-center field. Schwarber has some Home Run Derby experience making it to the finals against Bryce Harper in 2018 as the #5 seed but ultimately losing to the then Nationals outfielder.

The problem Schwarber has this year is going up against the winner of the Soto vs Ramirez matchup in which I think Soto has much to prove after turning down the Nationals enormous offer to stay on the team just days ago.

Pete Alonso (+195)

As stated Alonso has tons of experience in the Home Run Derby already winning two straight. He hit 74 total home runs last year in Coors Field which is 2nd most all-time in a derby since these numbers were tracked starting in 2014.

Alonso does hold the record by a wide margin of most home runs in a Home Run Derby in his career with 131. Joc Pederson is second with 99.

Acuña Jr. is going to have his shot to set the number against Alonso but he’s used to being in this position as he’s only had one opportunity during his back-to-back run to set a home run number in a given round which was last year’s first round against Salvador Perez in which he put up a whopping 35! Look for Alonso to easily get past Acuña Jr. in the first round.

Corey Seager (+1000)

Seager was a late addition to the field added just four days ago and he’s in a matchup in which I see a potential upset happening. Honestly without this game derby being hosted by Dodger Stadium and the five game home run streak he had in July I don’t think he’d be in this competition.

Nonetheless, the Rangers shortstop does have a little Home Run Derby experience participating in 2016 losing as the #8 seed to Mark Trumbo. Globe Life Field in Arlington is one of the easiest parks to hit a home run in and 16 of Seager’s 22 home runs are at home.

Seager may be caught up in some emotions participating, having played his first seven season with the Dodgers. We’ll know early on in Seager’s round if it’ll be another early exit for him or if he has the hot bat that could take him to the finals.

Juan Soto (+600)

As stated before Soto recently turned down a huge contract from Washington to stay with the club. He knows the team isn’t good, doesn’t have direction and wants out.

Playing with the Nationals his games are never in the national spotlight (no pun intended) and this is the perfect time to show front offices and fans all over the country why you want this talented outfielder on your team.

He has experience in the derby upsetting Shohei Ohtani last season as the #8 seed but eventually losing to winner Pete Alonso in the next round. Soto is a strong candidate to win this derby with multiple reasons to do so even as the #4 seed.

Jose Ramirez (+1500)

Ramirez is primarily known as a contact hitter with power for the Guardians who has no derby experience in his 10-year career. He’s been invited before but has turned it down.

This year is different though as he says he’s doing it solely based on wanting his mom and the rest of his family there to cheer for him.

Ramirez has one big question to answer for everyone as to which side of the plate he’ll hit from. He’s the only switch hitter in the field with even splits as far as home runs from each side of the plate.

Julio Rodriguez (+1500)

This rookie has a shot to shake up the field with his team riding a 14-game winning streak into the all-star break.

Like Soto and the Nationals, the Mariners don’t get much national recognition and Rodriguez as a legitimate chance to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

He’ll look to make a name for himself during this derby and has a chance to spoil Seager’s home coming to LA right out of the gate. He’s tied for the Mariners team lead in home runs with 16 without having hit one all of April!

Ronald Acuña Jr. (+650)

It’s actually shocking to see Acuña Jr. in this field having missed all of April and accounting for only eight home runs this season so far.

He does have experience in the Home Run Derby in 2019 beating Josh Bell in the first round then losing to derby winner Pete Alonso in the next round.

I think Alonso should make easy work of Acuña Jr. his time around, but don’t be surprised if Acuña looks for some revenge against Alonso and make things interesting in the first round as he’ll have a shot to set the number once again between these two.

Albert Pujols (+2000)

Let’s be quite frank, Pujols should have zero chance at winning this derby. He’s much older than the other participants and including him in the field is solely to commemorate his illustrious career.

He has six home runs this season playing part time for the Cardinals and there’s no way he has the endurance to last through this entire competition.

Could he pull a huge shocker and beat Schwarber in the first round? Of course, but don’t expect him to make it much further than that.

Home Run Derby Prediction

Soto has the most to prove to the world in this derby and you can get him at +600 to win. Alonso is listed at +195 in which I’m predicting these two to meet in the finals.

You can get Soto vs Alonso exact final at +550 which might be a safer bet if you don’t want to pick a winner. Going outside of the top 4 odds, Ramirez is my long shot to win at +1500.

2022 Home Run Derby Winner: Juan Soto +600

Longshot Winner: Jose Ramirez +1500

Interested in placing a home run derby bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000 for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.

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