2024 MLB Home Run Leaders and Odds | Will We See a Repeat Winner?
2024 MLB Home Run Leader Betting Preview
With an assist from Sportsmemo handicapper Steve Seagrave, the GoldSheet team is here to help you get ready for MLB Opening Day. Let’s check out Home Run Leaders picks!
Who’s expected to leave the yard more than anyone else this season? Let’s take a look at the Gold Sheet’s best bet for the 2024 MLB home run leader predictions.
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Home runs are one of the most exciting aspects of baseball, and there are a number of players who specialize in the long ball. Aaron Judge made history with 62 home runs in 2022, and with new rules that are more conducive for hitting dingers, odds are we will see more long balls this season. Who will lead the league in home runs this season? Let’s dive in.
Previous MLB Home Run Leaders
- 2023 Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves, 54)
- 2022 Aaron Judge (New York Yankees, 62)
- 2021 Vladimir Guerrero (Toronto Blue Jays / Salvador Perez KC Royals, 48)
- 2020 Luke Voit (New York Yankees, 22) (Covid shortened season)
- 2019 Pete Alonso (New York Mets, 53)
2024 MLB Home Run Leaders Candidates
Odds below courtesy of DraftKings Sports Book as of Thursday, March 21:
| Aaron Judge | +350 |
| Matt Olson | +600 |
| Pete Alonso | +700 |
| Kyle Schwarber | +750 |
| Juan Soto | +800 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +900 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1900 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +1900 |
| Austin Riley | +1900 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +2200 |
| Mike Trout | +2200 |
| Rafael Devers | +2500 |
| Jorge Soler | +2800 |
| Bryce Harper | +3000 |
| Oneil Cruz | +3500 |
| Corey Seager | +4000 |
| Adolis Garcia | +4000 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | +5500 |
| Kyle Tucker | +5500 |
2024 MLB Home Run Leaders Predictions
Unsurprisingly, the top two favorites are the past two seasons’ home run kings: Aaron Judge sits at +350, followed by Matt Olson at +600. Judge was the only player to eclipse 50 home runs during the 2022 season, with a league-leading 62 bombs across 157 games. However, Judge only played 106 games last season due to injury, and he landed on 37 home runs. The toe injury he had last season is considered to be a lingering injury, and he hurt himself mildly during spring training. The projected lineup for the Yankees has Judge protecting Juan Soto, followed by Anthony Rizzo, so pitchers may find it easier to pitch around Judge.
Matt Olson led the majors with 54 blasts last season in a loaded Braves lineup that ended the season with 4 of the top-10 home run hitters in the MLB. Olson is also a throwback player; he plans on playing EVERY game during the regular season, and he’s accomplished this feat the past two seasons, playing in all 162 games. Olson only hit 34 home runs in 2022 in his first season as a Brave, but after last season, it’s safe to say he’s fully acclimated to Atlanta and the friendly confines of a hitter’s paradise in Truist Park.
Moving down the board, Pete Alonso doesn’t have that luxury as he plays at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets lineup also lacks the protection of the other top candidates, which means pitchers can pitch around Alonso. Kyle Schwarber basically only hits home runs, but he also led the majors in strikeouts for the second straight season with 215 while also drawing the second-most walks. He truly is boom or bust.
Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani round out the favorites, and both will be playing their first season with a new team in a major market, similar to what Olson dealt with in 2022. As a result, we are backing Matt Olson to become the first back-to-back home run king since Jose Bautista in 2010-11. Assuming he avoids an injury, Olson will play every game in the same lineup that led the MLB in runs scored last season. We estimate Olson has just as good of a chance as Aaron Judge, and at the current odds, the payout is nearly double.
2024 MLB Home Run Leaders Prediction: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +600
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